Increasing attention is being paid to IPCC misrepresentations of natural
oceanic variability on decadal scales (Compo and Sardeshmukh 2009): «Several recent studies suggest that the observed SST variability may be misrepresented in the coupled models used in preparing the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, with substantial errors on interannual and decadal scales (e.g., Shukla et al. 2006, DelSole, 2006; Newman 2007; Newman et al. 2008).
Given these and other misrepresentations of natural
oceanic variability on decadal scales (e.g., Zhang and McPhaden 2006), a role for natural causes of at least some of the recent oceanic warming should not be ruled out.»
Climate models provide a means to derive such a link, under the assumption that the current generation of climate models captures the essence of the signature of
oceanic variability on the global mean temperature.
«Despite recent advances in the state of the global ocean observing system, estimating
oceanic variability on basin - wide to global scales remains difficult.
It is interesting that the North Atlantic does not play a more important role in this largest - trend case, since it does dominate
the oceanic variability on somewhat shorter ~ 20 year time scales in this model.
Not exact matches
Monitoring, understanding, and predicting
oceanic variations associated with natural climate
variability and human - induced changes, and assessing the related roles of the ocean
on multiple spatial - temporal scales.
Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and
oceanic storage of heat, not
on the type of multi-decadal time scale
variability we are discussing here.
The mechanism by which the effect of
oceanic variability over time is transferred to the atmosphere involves evaporation, conduction, convection, clouds and rainfall the significance of which has to date been almost entirely ignored due to the absence of the necessary data especially as regards the effect of cloudiness changes
on global albedo and thus the amount of solar energy able to enter the oceans.
«
On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
On forced temperature changes, internal
variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of
oceanic influence
on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature
variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint
on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal
variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment
on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures&raqu
on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»
Requires the Climate Service Program to: (1) analyze the effects of weather and climate
on communities; (2) carry out observations, data collection, and monitoring of atmospheric and
oceanic conditions; (3) provide information and technical support to governmental efforts to assess and respond to climate
variability and change; (4) develop systems for the management and dissemination of data; (5) conduct research to improve forecasting and understanding of weather and climate
variability and change and its effects
on communities; and (6) develop tools to facilitate the use of climate information by local and regional stakeholders.
This Section places particular emphasis
on current knowledge of past changes in key climate variables: temperature, precipitation and atmospheric moisture, snow cover, extent of land and sea ice, sea level, patterns in atmospheric and
oceanic circulation, extreme weather and climate events, and overall features of the climate
variability.
The problems we are working
on range from basic studies of circulation patterns of water in the ocean and groundwater flow systems to the
variability of the
oceanic circulation under natural and anthropogenically forced conditions or the transport and transformation of contaminants.
Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial
variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would provide essential ground truth to AMOC model estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC changes or other atmospheric /
oceanic variability have the dominant impact
on interannual sea surface temperature (SST)
variability.
Natural factors such as the Sun (84 papers), multi-decadal
oceanic - atmospheric oscillations such as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers), decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and internal
variability in general have exerted a significant influence
on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.
The
oceanic effect is always dominant but the fact is that
on 500 year timescales (not necessarily
on shorter time scales due to interference from lesser cycles and chaotic
variability) the sun is less active as per the Maunder Minimum and at the same the oceans were independently releasing energy at a low rate.
On shorter timescales the background signal is overlain by chaotic variability and lesser solar and oceanic cycles.I'm sure one can find all sorts of contradicting examples on short timescale
On shorter timescales the background signal is overlain by chaotic
variability and lesser solar and
oceanic cycles.I'm sure one can find all sorts of contradicting examples
on short timescale
on short timescales.
Any
variability in
oceanic circulation could have strong effects
on local, and hence average temperature, even with a fixed energy budget.