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Throughout the campaign — and up until the very last round
of election polls — the dominant narrative of the election outcome predicted another coalition government, this one with Ed Miliband as the prime minister.
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The reputation
of election polling took a battering after failing to predict the 2015 General Election result.
Not exact matches
Gallup
polling on favorable or unfavorable views
of both major parties has found neither party has had more support than opposition since at least the 2012
election, the last time that more people approved
of the Democratic Party (51 percent) than disapproved
of it (43 percent).
These local and mayoral
elections are unusual because they come just five weeks before voters will go back to the
polls for the general
election, and slap - bang in the middle
of the political parties»
election campaigns.
In the introduction to a series that will look back at the events leading up to the
election, Silver seems on the defensive somewhat, justifying his analysis
of the
poll results and pointing out that he predicted Clinton would be weak with the Electoral College and that Trump might prevail.
After the first round
of elections last week,
polls indicate that his party could take as many as 425
of the 577 positions.
For example, Silver argues that a number
of factors had more to do with the media's misunderstanding
of what was happening during the
election than any alleged errors in
polling.
In the last
election, business leaders chose Stephen Harper over Michael Ignatieff by a margin
of three - to - one, according to a Compas
poll at the time.
In other cases, Silver argues, media organizations chose to not focus on the
polls at all, but turned their attention to secondary or even tertiary events that had little impact on the outcome
of the
election.
Wynne, who is struggling in the
polls, must call an
election by June
of next year.
A Wall Street Journal / NBC News
poll released on Sunday found that 50 %
of people said they want Democrats to lead Congress after the 2018 midterm
elections, compared to 39 % who said they hoped Republicans would retain congressional control.
But recent
polls suggest that the incoming Alabama senator - elect's victory may be a part
of a larger trend that could spell trouble for Republicans in next year's midterm
elections.
We didn't translate that to being down double — we knew we were going to have a big
Election Day, knew Republicans were going to turn out, because we had a state
poll that showed 62 %
of Republicans were going to vote on
Election Day.
In a Gallup
poll during the 2016 general
election, 51 %
of Americans said the president should release all relevant medical information, an increase from 2004 when 38 % held that view.
Quite apart from the merits
of the allegations, the Democrats are anxious to be seen as tougher on harassment to sharpen their profile in next week's special
election in Alabama, where Republican candidate Roy Moore still leads opinion
polls despite facing multiple unsavory allegations
of his own.
Since there are no exit
polls for the referendum, unlike the general
election, this is our best gauge
of voter sentiment until results start trickling in from local counting areas around 1 a.m. BST.
Trump vowed at his rally that he would win Washington state, even though the state tends to support Democrats and that party's nominee, Hillary Clinton, leads by large margins in opinion
polls ahead
of the Nov. 8
election.
In addition, this is an
election that Republican candidate Donald Trump has claimed is «rigged,» and where he has urged his followers to go to «certain sections»
of states like Pennsylvania and monitor the
polls to make sure the
elections are not stolen from him.
Only about a third
of Republicans said they have a great deal or quite a bit
of confidence that votes on
Election Day will be counted fairly, according to recent
poll from the Associated Press - NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Opinion
polls show independent centrist Macron is set to beat National Front candidate Le Pen in Sunday's second round
of voting, in what is seen to be France's most important
election in decades.
Polling conducted after last year's federal
elections showed that over 62 %
of Australians support legalizing same - sex marriage.
Now, he is tipped in the
polls to go through to the second round
of the
elections, and face - off with Marine Le Pen for the presidency.
Ireland was on the verge
of a snap
election on Monday after the opposition party propping up the minority government said the deputy prime minister's refusal to quit would force the country to the
polls next month.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who leads opinion
polls ahead
of the July 1
election, has...
Despite news reports that might lead one to believe that the
polling was not accurate, Webster noted in the podcast interview that they had a sense
of the outcome early during
election day.
Shown pictures
of some
of the people who apparently voted twice, including at Ust - Djeguta's
polling station no. 217, Leila Koichuyeva, a member
of the
election commission there, said: «They could be twins.»
Asked about the discrepancy, the chairwoman
of the
polling station's
election commission, Oksana Mediyeva, said independent monitors had watched the vote and had raised no issues.
Maduro's approval ratings have tumbled amid the crisis to 28 percent, near the lowest in 16 years
of socialist rule, and while there's no sign the sometimes violent street protests that overwhelmed the country a year ago will return anytime soon,
polls indicate that the opposition will coast to victory in legislative
elections expected to take place by year end.
As pundits and
polls declared Clinton the clear winner
of the first debate, the Mexican peso had its best day in about seven months, surging nearly 3 %, and making the peso perhaps the best predictor
of the 2016
election outcome.
Here are 9 things we know about the
election, the
polls and why Trump could surprise a lot
of people, says GOP strategist Sara Fagen.
The Electorate
of Canning by -
election in Western Australia on September 19 will take a snapshot
of the national mood, just over two years on from the federal
poll.
In the tight three - way race
of this year's federal
election, the focus has shifted from the reliability
of any single research firm to the wisdom
of the collective pollster mind, with news outlets arguing over who can aggregate the
polls in the most reliable fashion.
The Socialists, weakened after the deeply unpopular presidency
of Francois Hollande, have no chance
of getting beyond the first round
of the
election in April, according to the latest
polls.
The Monmouth
poll found that in counties that Trump or Hillary Clinton, his Democratic challenger, won by less than 10 percentage points in the 2016 presidential
election, 30 %
of people say they approve
of the bill and 38 % say they disapprove.
Steinmeier's intervention suggests he regards a new
election - desired by half
of Germany's voters according to a
poll - as a last resort.
Democrats have vowed retribution at the
polls, suggesting possible recall
elections of Michigan Republicans.
By contrast, Front National leader Marine Le Pen, currently leading the opinion
polls in France's Presidential
elections due in May, routinely attacks the ECB's policy as too tight and Germanic (albeit she recently diluted her comments on taking France out
of the euro into something much less coherent than the brutal «Frexit» she threatened earlier).
Jonathan Golub, the chief equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said Tuesday that market moves including the tightening
of polls and the FBI ending its investigation into Clinton's emails have given a strong indication
of how markets will move after the
election.
The company is running a promotion closer to November in which it will encourage users to take their kids along when they hit the
polls on
Election Day, and post «stories» (Winnie's version
of Yelp reviews) about their experiences.
In Gallup's tracking
poll of Americans» outlook on the economy, there was a massive post-
election swing in confidence and optimism between Republicans and Democrats, with the former reporting much more confidence than they had before the
election and the latter becoming much less optimistic.
As Britons headed to the
polls on Thursday, it's worth highlighting how the general
election could influence the course
of that country's exit, or «Brexit,» from the European Union — particularly as the race appears to have tightened in recent weeks.
Republicans in South Carolina also were voting on Saturday in the state - by - state contest to pick nominees for the Nov. 8
election, with opinion
polls showing front - runner Donald Trump trying to solidify his spot at the top
of the pack and rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio fighting for a second - place finish.
Polls across a wide range
of battleground states showed Clinton holding a narrow but consistent lead in the days before the
election.
The unprecedented failure
of coalition talks has meant that another
election could occur in January, four months after the country last went to the
polls.
An Abacus Data
poll released this month found 62 percent
of Canadians think Trudeau is doing at least «an acceptable job» on the economy, including 49 percent
of those who voted in the last
election for the Conservatives.
Historically Greek exit
polls have only been
of moderate reliability, but on the May 6
election, they were pretty spot on, so they'll be taken more seriously probably this time around.
While the district has long been a Republican - stronghold, the two candidates were
polling neck and neck ahead
of yesterday's
election.