The unpredictable
character of chaotic systems arises from their sensitivity to any change in the conditions that control their development.
Using models that are optimized for historical accuracy to predict future real
states of a chaotic system have error terms that grow as a function of distance from supporting real data.
Climate sensitivity, being essentially determined by the long - term average over the attractor
of a chaotic system which we don't understand very well, is essentially an example of the second case.
For example, the idea that the brain is a complex non-linear dynamic system is mentioned only fleetingly - leaving me with the feeling that we had missed an opportunity for a useful discussion (such as perhaps making a connection with the ideas advocated by Polkinghorne regarding the
possibility of chaotic systems «amplifying» quantum level uncertainties up to the macro-level).
Based on my limited
knowledge of chaotic systems, I wish to ask the following: isn't it possible (perhaps equally possible) that severe weather could become less - widespread in a warmer world?
In simple principles at the
heart of chaotic systems there are regime changes that are completely deterministic but seemingly random shifts in means and variance.
However, there are
kinds of chaotic systems which operate around «attractors» so that they repeat their configurations in quasi-periodic fashion.
The model simulations, being different realizations
of a chaotic system do not have their warm and cold anomalies in the same years as the observations.