Adjust your Expectations and Realize that we are probably in the midst
of a secular bear market for stocks.
Not exact matches
However, we are not in the early stages
of a new
secular bear market for commodities (or the ETFs which represent those commodities like XLE).
However, this is not the beginning
of a long - term
secular bear market for this sector
of the global economy.
The combination
of the extremely powerful 1982 - 2000 bull
market accompanied by a senseless financial mania was the recipe
for the start
of the
secular bear market we envisioned.
The Investor's Scenario Surfer [Scenario Surfer button] incorporates the Stock Returns Predictor (including a special version
for long lasting (
secular)
Bear Markets) and two forms
of mean reversion.
From a historical perspective, the 1966 through 1982
Secular Bear Market was the third one we have had since 1900 and was not overwhelming in terms
of loss, it simply meandered sideways virtually going nowhere
for 16.5 years.
I used Ed Easterling's definitions
for the timing
of long lasting (
secular) Bull
Markets and
Bear Markets during the twentieth century.
At the end
of the 1966 though 1982
secular bear market the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost over (17 %)-- it had traded in a tight trading range
for over 16 years.
Now the reality is no one will consistently miss all the worst days — I'm the first guy to admit our 100 % Cash call the day before the flash crash was dumb luck — but you can avoid being long
for most
of a
secular bear market.
... The key point
of this article is that relying solely on a passive strategic portfolio designed to produce near - benchmark returns in a
secular bear market will do nothing but guarantee that clients will underperform long - term expectations
for an extended period
of time and make it likely that they will fail to achieve their financial planning goals.