But that was the mania stage
of a secular bull market born by the way, of relatively sound monetary policy.
Not exact matches
Was the March 2009 low the end
of a
secular bear market and the beginning
of a
secular bull?
Instead, this is nothing more than a cyclical
bear market within the confines
of a multi-year
secular bull market.
The combination
of the extremely powerful 1982 - 2000
bull market accompanied by a senseless financial mania was the recipe for the start
of the
secular bear market we envisioned.
However, after enormous bailouts
of the largest financial institutions in the country, as well as the auto industry, and even more monetary ease than in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE, and QE2); we started another cyclical
bull market within the
secular bear market.
You would have to think this
secular bear market would be extremely severe with the combination
of a major
bull market followed by a financial mania.
The counter to that is that this is merely a cyclical
bull market in the context
of the
secular bear market that started in 2000.
In the introduction to the last
Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake
of believing that a
secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market started in March of
market started in March
of 2009.
The 1982
secular bull market was preceded and followed by
secular bear markets that featured lots
of sharp rallies and sell offs, but netted investors nothing after more than a decade.
3) The stock
market experiences extended periods
of secular bull markets and
secular bear markets based on the trend in P / E ratios, which is driven by the trend in inflation.
Essentially, a
secular bull period comprises several cyclical
bull -
bear cycles, where each
bull market achieves a successively higher level
of market valuation at its peak.
Secular bear markets also involve a series
of bull -
bear cycle, but with each
bear market trough achieving successively lower levels
of valuation.
As the guys at Nautilus Capital note, cyclical
bull markets within
secular bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average gain
of 85 %, while cyclical
bears within
secular bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses
of -39 %.
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are in a
secular bear market that began in 2000.»
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are in a
secular bear market that began -LSB-...]
I feel that stocks are still one
of the best investments available due real earnings and liquidity, but I need to adjust my strategy depending on the kind
of market like cyclical
bull market, cyclical
bear market,
secular bull market, and
secular bear market.
My own controversial perspective is that we are in a cyclical
bull market, which is a part
of a larger
secular bear market.
An average
bear market within a «
secular»
bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course
of 3 - 4 separate
bull -
bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 %
of the preceding
bull market advance.
It is made better if you separate
secular bull markets from
secular bear markets (as does Ed Easterling
of Crestmont Research).
Bulls, Bears and P / E10 Predictions I took advantage
of Ed Easterling's research to define the beginning and end
of secular (long lasting)
Bull Markets and
secular Bear Markets.
Barry notes, «If the rate
of change data somehow corresponds to past shifts in
secular markets from
bears to
bulls, this is potentially a very significant factor.»
Why isn't it accepted that a
secular bear market could follow the greatest
bull market of all time?»
The book covers the factors that move Gold, why Gold fell into a long
bear market that would end soon, why Gold's
secular bull market would resume and why gold mining stocks were / are the buy
of a lifetime.
I used Ed Easterling's definitions for the timing
of long lasting (
secular)
Bull Markets and
Bear Markets during the twentieth century.
In this study, I quantify the effect
of long lasting (
secular)
market trends (
bull markets and
bear markets).
Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery
Secular Bear Markets and the Volatility
of Inflation Trading Volume Separates
Bull Markets from
Bear Rallies A Stock
Market Rebound Closely Linked with Economic Data Surprises
Market Valuations During U.S. Recessions Stock
Market Valuations Following the Great Moderation Will Global
Markets Take Their Lead from the U.S.?
Within a
secular trend, there may be a number
of shorter cyclical
bear and
bull markets.
A
secular bear or
bull market is a prolonged trend
of falling or rising stock prices, lasting about five to 20 years, though there's no strict definition.
Just like you can't make out the shape
of a galaxy unless you can view it from a distance, you can't know whether you're in a
secular bear or
bull market until after it's over.
Yet, if we accept the notion that
secular bear markets include cyclical
bull markets within them, and if we recognize the epic nature
of the risk - off movement
of capital, «
secular» is a more accurate descriptor (than «cyclical»).
Let's look at each
secular bull and
bear market of the Dow over the last 100 years.
As you can see, this
secular bear market was typical
of most
secular bear markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed
of mostly vicious cyclical
bull and
bear markets that result in a mostly sideways long term movement.