Sentences with phrase «of a tightening cycle»

We know how this one ended, but at the end of the tightening cycle, it seemed like another success.

The link between the beginning of the tightening cycle and the impact on financial markets is loose.

In previous episodes, long yields tended to rise in the early stages of a tightening cycle at least as much as the rise in short rates, reflecting inflation concerns.

Regardless of the period, 3 - month returns following the start of a period of steady tightening were on average negative and more volatile, as markets initially reacted negatively to the start of a tightening cycle.

Rather than a traditional offsetting relationship at this early point of the tightening cycle, the near - term interest rate outlook and the near - term profits outlook are both negative.

You can see the panics around LTCM (1998), the end of the tightening cycle in 2000, and the money market troubles in 2007.

Indeed, I believe the Fed will raise rates in a slow manner that doesn't excessively unsettle the economy or markets, with the gradual nature of the tightening cycle allowing markets to absorb the increases with relative ease.

Our interest rate outlook is also partly driven by the view that the BoC intentionally wants to lag the Fed in terms of its tightening cycle.

In the prior 27 midterm periods, the S&P 500 has rallied 12 % on average during the 10 months following the election; the return jumps to 22 % when the Fed is in the middle of a tightening cycle.

Using duration of the tightening cycle or «time» as the benchmark (i.e. splitting up the various phases by 25 % increments), the S&P 500 was up an average 3.6 % (median +2.4 %); using «duration» or basis - point change as the benchmark, the first 25 % of the cycle sees an average gain of 7.2 % (median of +5.6 %).

The US Federal Reserve is in the midst of a tightening cycle, and pressure is building on the European Central Bank and others to taper their quantitative easing programs.

As shown by the slope changes in the table, flatter curves have been characteristic of tightening cycles and steeper curves have resulted from easing cycles.

However, while the opening of a tightening cycle has historically led to short - term market setbacks, once investors adjust to the growth story that stimulated the rate hike, markets tend to perform well.

If you look at periods where the price / peak earnings multiple was 16 or higher on the S&P 500, the final rate hike of a tightening cycle was actually associated with losses on an annualized total return basis, averaging -7.18 % over the following 6 months, -9.94 % over the following 12 months, and -5.87 % over the following 18 months.

It was pretty tough to dislodge William Poole, but if anyone could win the coveted «FOMC Loose Cannon» award in a single day, it would be Richard Fisher, after suggesting that the FOMC was «clearly in the eighth inning of a tightening cycle, we've been doing 25 basis points per inning, it's been very transparent, and very well projected by the Federal Open Market Committee under the leadership of Chairman Greenspan,» and, «We're in the eighth inning.

If the long bond runs higher, it might be a doozy of a tightening cycle.

But if valuations had been rising in the previous year, the S&P 500 has historically performed much worse following the start of a tightening cycle.

Fed has hiked 14 times and 10 yr rates are unchanged while 30 yr rates are 60bp lower than at the beginning of the tightening cycle.

The question lingering on investors» minds is how many rate increases the central bank intends to implement until the end of the tightening cycle, and if it was willing to raise rates above it its so - called neutral rate.

Although the US currency typically weakens at the start of a tightening cycle, Morgan Stanley is forecasting a stronger greenback against all major currencies through 2017.

Although we are miles away from being inverted as the front part of the curve is still relatively steep, the market is sending signals that the end of the tightening cycle might be in sight.

In the 13 cases since 1928 in which the Fed embarked on a rate - hike cycle, the S&P 500 climbed an average of 9.8 percent during the 12 months spanning the six months before and six months after the start of a tightening cycle.

It doesn't help to argue that the Fed will stop tightening soon, because the end of a tightening cycle has historically been followed by below - average returns for about 18 months.

Then there is the word «typically» like in «In fact, the first 25 % of the tightening cycle is typically the best part of the stock market cycle».

In fact, -LRB-...) the first 25 % of the tightening cycle is typically the best part of the stock market cycle because the Fed is only lifting rates because it has gained confidence that the economy is taking off, and at this point of the tightening cycle the Fed has usually not even adjusted to a neutral (let alone a tight) policy stance.

Here's a nuance: in each of 1961, 1965, 1980, 1983 and 1987, the first 25 % of the tightening cycle was, in fact, the best part of the stock market cycle.

Looking at history, U.S. stocks tend to initially react negatively to the start of a tightening cycle and then rebound 6 to 12 months later, producing positive, albeit subpar, returns over the longer term.

Regardless of the period, 3 - month returns following the start of a period of steady tightening were on average negative and more volatile, as markets initially reacted negatively to the start of a tightening cycle.

Looking at history, U.S. stocks tend to initially react negatively to the start of a tightening cycle and then rebound 6 to 12 months later, producing positive, albeit subpar, returns over the longer term.

7) I've sometimes commented that at the start of a tightening cycle that those who have been cheating blow up, like Third Avenue Focused Credit, which bought assets far less liquid than the shares of its mutual fund.

At the end of the tightening cycle, something blows up that would be a surprise now, which sometimes jolts the FOMC to stop tightening.