It is simply the unforgiving math
of accumulating emissions.»
I prefer the trend
of the accumulated emissions, which is a near perfect fit for the observed accumulation in the atmosphere, above the temperature trend which is not so perfect... See and compare: with:
Not exact matches
They can
accumulate large quantities
of carbon, for example, which helps partially offset anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions.
«As time goes on, the rate
of burning in the power plant stays the same, but the carbon
accumulates, so by the end
of the year, the greenhouse gases will be heating the earth much more than the direct
emissions of the power plant.»
Faster sea floor spreading, presumably associated with more volcanic activity at subduction zones, and / or other increases in volcanic activity or geologic outgassing, or faster oxidation
of exposed fossil organic C (as in shales)-- greater geologic CO2
emissions (I think another way
of looking at the inorganic part is that any given region
of sea floor has less time to
accumulate carbonate minerals from chemical weathering, so that C reservoir could shrink while others, including the atmosphere, can grow).
While news journalists and internet bloggers are busy headlining scary stories invoking the presumed causal link between anthropogenic CO2
emissions and floods and droughts and global warming, robust scientific evidence
of naturally - forced climate change has continued to rapidly
accumulate.
The manmade
emissions fueling global warming are
accumulating so quickly in the atmosphere that climate change could spiral out
of control before humanity can take measures drastic enough to cool the earth's fever, many climate scientists say.
As the word «
accumulated» implies, atmospheric CO2 concentration at any point in time is the result
of * past
emissions *, and since we don't have a time machine or a magic wand to change the past, people in the real world have to deal with * future
emissions *.
Thus, at that point in the future, a lessor volume
of accumulated GHGs in the atmosphere would mean a global climate that is not as warm as the global climate would have been had we not emitted fewer GHG
emissions now.
China's
accumulated emissions account for only 7 %
of the global total.
Emitting fewer GHG
emissions now will result in a volume
of accumulated GHGs at a given point in the future that will be less than it would have been had we not emitted fewer GHG
emissions.
The problem is that the rate
of emissions has no direct effect on temperature; it is the
accumulated level in the atmosphere that creates a radiative imbalance that causes temperature to rise.
In pushing passionately for aggressive action to cut carbon dioxide
emissions, «Asteroid Miner» is a staunch defender
of nuclear power as a non-polluting energy option, a stance that's in sync with quite a few commenters who reject his view
of risk from
accumulating greenhouse gases.
Ideas that we should increase aerosol
emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a «Faustian bargain» because that would imply an ever increasing amount
of emissions in order to match the
accumulated GHG in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
Perhaps no surplus carbon sink exists at all to absorb the
emissions caused by burning
of fossil fuels
accumulated in the earth over millions
of years.
Rate
of percentage annual growth for carbon dioxide has certainly increased since the beginning
of the 21st century, but this should result in a significant change in the rate
of warming any more quickly than the differences between
emission scenarios would, and there (according to the models) the differences aren't significant for the first thirty - some years but progressively become more pronounced from then on — given the cummulative effects
of accumulated carbon dioxide.
That is because
accumulating observations and analysis pointing to the causes and consequences
of global warming merely delineate the problem, including areas
of persistent uncertainty, uneven exposure to risk and uneven responsibility for
emissions of greenhouse gases.
Raising public will, given the incremental and dispersed nature
of the risks posed by
accumulating greenhouse gases (not to mention the globally dispersed sources
of emissions), is almost assuredly the tougher
of the two tasks.
His video illustrates what carbon dioxide
emissions from human activities would look like if you could watch the gas volume
accumulate in front
of you in real - time.
As the word «
accumulated» implies, atmospheric CO2 concentration at any point in time is the result
of * past
emissions *, and since we don't have a time machine or a magic wand to change the past, people in the real world have to deal with * future
emissions *.
As I wrote above, James Carville's campaign mantra about «the economy, stupid,» is vital to keep in mind here as well, so I'll closed with the voices
of three economists who've extensively analyzed the economic impacts
of accumulating greenhouse gases and various policies for curbing
emissions.
Although
emissions from developing countries now dominate, the industrial countries set the world on its global warming path with over a century's worth
of CO2
emissions that have
accumulated in the atmosphere.
On the other hand, the correlation between
accumulated emissions and accumulation
of CO2 in the atmosphere is much better: it is a near fit over the last 100 + years (60 years
of ice core data, near 50 years
of MLO data).
And according to
emissions specialists like the Tyndall Centre's Kevin Anderson (as well as others), so much carbon has been allowed to
accumulate in the atmosphere over the past two decades that now our only hope
of keeping warming below the internationally agreed - upon target
of 2 degrees Celsius is for wealthy countries to cut their
emissions by somewhere in the neighborhood
of 8 — 10 percent a year.27 The «free» market simply can not accomplish this task.
Global temperature change can in turn be linked both to concentrations
of atmospheric carbon dioxide (Table 1) and to
accumulated carbon
emissions (Figure 1).»
Second, cumulative
emissions are particularly important, because it is the
accumulated stock
of GHGs in the atmosphere that cause climate change.
Elsewhere, I cited as an example an abrupt warming from massive release
of permafrost methane precipitated by the gradually
accumulating temperature increase from further CO2
emissions.
If those
emissions had simply
accumulated in the air, the concentration
of carbon dioxide would have increased from 280 parts per million (ppm), as it was before the Industrial Revolution, to about 550 ppm today.
The burning
of tropical peatlands is so significant for greenhouse gas
emissions because these areas store some
of the highest quantities
of carbon on Earth,
accumulated over thousands
of years.
Over the past decade, aerosol
emissions (which cause cooling by blocking sunlight) have risen, solar activity has been low, there has been a preponderance
of La Niña events (which also cause short - term surface cooling), and heat has
accumulated in the deep oceans.
Alas, I believe the preponderance
of evidence strongly supports the claim that anthropogenic
emissions are having an effect on the global climate, and that effect will increase as greenhouse gases
accumulate in the atmosphere.
As time goes on, the rate
of burning in the power plant stays the same, but the CO2
accumulates, so by the end
of the year, the greenhouse gases will be heating the Earth much more than the direct
emissions from the power plant.»
IPCC scientists assume that human CO2
emissions will continue to
accumulate in the atmosphere, remaining anywhere from hundreds to thousands
of years.
If all Joules contribute equally, then each
of the 240 W / m ^ 2
of accumulated forcing must also contributes 4.3 W / m ^ 2 to surface
emissions adding up to over 1000 W / m ^ 2 corresponding to an average surface temperature close to the boiling point
of water.
Given that all Joules are equivalent and all 240 W / m ^ 2
of accumulated forcing from the Sun must on average contribute equally to the
emissions of the surface, each W / m ^ 2 contributes about 1.6 W / m ^ 2 to the surface
emissions where the next 1.6 W / m ^ 2
of emissions from another W / m ^ 2
of forcing would arise from a surface temperature increase from 288K to 288.3 K.
The cement industry takes any potential
emission of POPs seriously, both because perceptions about these
emissions have an impact on the industry's reputation, and because even small quantities
of dioxin - like compounds can
accumulate in the biosphere, with potentially long - term consequences.
Up until now, 29 per cent
of human
emissions of carbon dioxide has been taken up by the oceans, 28 per cent has been absorbed by plant growth on land, and the remaining 43 per cent has
accumulated in the atmosphere.
A natural consequence
of science is that over time, as evidence
accumulates and points in a certain direction, is that the experts start agreeing on the most likely explanation (eg that smoking increases the risk
of cancer; that GHG
emissions will cause a positive energy imbalance
of the planet which will warm up as a result).
IPCC writes page 10 § B. 5
of the Summary for Policy Makers: «From those cumulative anthropic
emissions 240 [230 à 250] Gt - C have
accumulated in the atmosphere»
Since the CO2 looses 4.7 watts
emission in a century, the earth
accumulates this over the century raising temperature by 0.012 C / yr while the random chaos
of the hydrological system with its raising temperature will radiate an additional power
of 0.047 watts / year with its atmospheric water vapor temperature rise.
So there is another reason to believe that while humans certainly ARE adding CO2 to the atmosphere, it isn't the primary component (we already know it isn't the primary component because the atmosphere is
accumulating CO2 at a much faster rate than humans add each year) because while human
emissions have been rising nearly exponentially, atmospheric CO2 has been rising linearly and that rate
of rise did not change when global human CO2
emissions fell in absolute terms (tons
of CO2 emitted to atmosphere fell in 2009, rate
of increase
of atmospheric CO2 unchanged).
The residual, which
accumulates to fo rm the trend, provides a record
of net
emission.
This one piece
of empirical evidence is in direct contradiction
of the assertion that part
of the anthropogenic
emission is
accumulating in the air.
Because carbon dioxide
accumulates in the atmosphere and some part
of it stays there essentially forever, historic
emissions matter more than current
emission rates.
The linked post is discusses the fact that reducing the rate
of CO2
emission is insufficient, that it's the actual amount
of CO2
accumulated in the atmosphere by ANY positive net rate (
emission - absorption).
An adequate global climate change solution will need to limit total global ghg
emissions to levels which will prevent atmospheric concentrations
of ghgs from
accumulating to dangerous levels and to do this any solution will also need to allocate total global
emissions levels among all nations.
Don't worry yet mate because: «Land and ocean CO2 sinks respectively removed 30 % and 25 %
of all anthropogenic CO2
emissions over the period 2000 — 2008, leaving about 45 % to
accumulate in the atmosphere.»
As scientists have
accumulated evidence for global warming and its possible consequences, so the scientific and political consensus has favoured attempts at reducing carbon
emissions through taxes and regulations and subsidies, many
of them directed at factories and motor - cars.
What is your definition for: Adaptable, Dangerous, and Apocalyptic (extinction
of humanity) in terms
of peak
emissions (ppm CO2) and
accumulated emissions (in Gt CO2 and C)?
If all farmable fields in the world
accumulated as much carbon as fast as the organic fields at Rodale Institute, we could store 40 percent
of the world's annual global greenhouse gas
emissions in the soil.