Any winner must be matched by a loser, and so the overall expectation
of active stock pickers must be zero.
Not exact matches
Screens have the advantage
of avoiding the biases held by human
stock pickers, but sometimes an
active manager, like a conscientious driver, can do a better job
of spotting the hazards dead ahead.
Here is Michael Mauboussin's take on whether the exodus out
of active and into indexes will leave more opportunities for
stock pickers:
For
active stock pickers, the math is cruel: All else equal, if
stocks rise 20 %, then a fund with a tenth
of its assets in cash will generate only an 18 % gain before expenses.
For answers, we asked Portfolio Managers Lucy Macdonald and Karen Hiatt — two
of our most experienced
stock -
pickers — to share their thoughts on
active investing in turbulent times.
The problem with this book is that the author falls into the index - zealot's trap
of assuming that all «
active investing» retail investors are
stock pickers who arre overmatched by their professional counterparts, and their access to more and better information.
When considering whether we're in an attractive environment for
active management — the long - sought «
stock picker's market» — it's important to bear in mind the difference between the existence
of skill and the value
of skill.
This is Step 3:
Stock Pickers of the full length documentary film Index Funds: The 12 - Step Recovery Program for
Active Investors.
The Simple Math Favoring Index Funds At the beginning
of every year,
active managers, fresh off the wounds
of the prior year, declare that this year will be a
stock picker's year.
Pretty impressive numbers, and enough to make indexers out
of many former
stock pickers and other
active investors.
The first thing that you need to understand is that capital markets are made up
of two primary groups — indexers (market replicators) and
active managers (
stock pickers).
Today's Wall Street Journal brought the latest in a string
of articles suggesting that we have entered a period
of particular opportunity for
active investment management — a so - called «
stock -
picker's market.»
Many point to underperformance by
active managers in the past few years as proof that the days
of the
stock picker are numbered.
Regardless
of how correlations change, the opportunities for
active stock pickers will languish until dispersion rises.