The authors examine various potential causes
of aerosol increases and identify a number of small volcanoes over the last decade as the most plausible source.
If the direct effect
of the aerosol increase is considered, surface temperatures will not get as warm because the aerosols reflect solar radiation.
The SKY experiment provided proof of concept in that they found the formation rate
of aerosol increased in the presence of ions generated using a 580 MeV electron beam (Enghoff et al. 2011).
Not exact matches
The movement away from a traditional
aerosol can not only improves the user experience by
increasing efficiency and lowering weight but also demonstrates responsible packaging by replacing a potentially hazardous can with a pouch that can be disposed
of in the regular waste stream.
China «could cause some decreases [in stratospheric
aerosols] if that is the source,» Neely says, adding that growing SO2 emissions from India could also
increase cooling if humans are the dominant cause
of injecting
aerosols into the atmosphere.
On the other hand, «if some volcanoes that are large enough go off and if they are the dominant cause [
of increasing aerosols], then we will probably see some
increases» in cooling.
Determining whether humans or volcanoes explain more
of the
increase in stratospheric
aerosols is the focus
of ongoing research, says PhD candidate Ryan Neely
of the University
of Colorado, who contributed to the NOAA research.
One
aerosol, black carbon, is
of increasing concern for Arctic nations worried about the pace
of climate change in the far north, which is warming twice as fast as the global average.
While it is still possible that other factors, such as heat storage in other oceans or an
increase in
aerosols, have led to cooling at the Earth's surface, this research is yet another piece
of evidence that strongly points to the Pacific Ocean as the reason behind a slowdown in warming.
These results imply that the chlorine activation efficiency
of the
aerosol particles
increases rapidly as the temperature approaches the ice frost point regardless
of the phase or composition
of the particles.
The
aerosols catalyze the formation
of ice in the clouds, which could
increase precipitation, although more research needs to be done on that linkage, Creamean said.
The scientists expect further warming in the Arctic as levels
of greenhouse gases will continue to
increase and
aerosol particle emissions will likely decrease to combat air pollution in different parts
of the world.
Black carbon
aerosols — particles
of carbon that rise into the atmosphere when biomass, agricultural waste, and fossil fuels are burned in an incomplete way — are important for understanding climate change, as they absorb sunlight, leading to higher atmospheric temperatures, and can also coat Arctic snow with a darker layer, reducing its reflectivity and leading to
increased melting.
This was due to a combination
of factors: a less active sun, higher levels
of cooling
aerosols from volcanoes and Asian factories, and
increased heat uptake by the oceans.
A few
of the main points
of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An
increasing body
of observations gives a collective picture
of a warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions
of greenhouse gases and
aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability
of models to project future climate has
increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
Simulating natural and humanmade climate drivers, scientists showed that the decline in rainfall is primarily a response to humanmade
increases in greenhouse gases as well as a thinning
of the ozone caused by humanmade
aerosol emissions.
«The trends in Africa
of hot summers getting hotter and rainy seasons drying out are linked with factors that include
increasing greenhouse gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere,» said Ming Cai, a program director in the National Science Foundation's Division
of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.
When the wind slows down, the concentration
of small particles
of air pollution (
aerosols)
increase, which help
increase haze and leads to solar dimming in the area.
Indeed, conventional wisdom held that higher levels
of aerosol pollution in the atmosphere should cool the earth's climate because
aerosols can
increase cloudiness; they not only reduce precipitation, which raises the water content in clouds, but they also
increase the size
of the individual water droplets, which in turn causes more warming sunlight to be reflected back into space.
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, showed that the production
of tar sands and other heavy oil — thick, highly viscous crude oil that is difficult to produce — are a major source
of aerosols, a component
of fine particle air pollution, which can affect regional weather patterns and
increase the risk
of lung and heart disease.
A 2013 computer simulation
of this process found
increased aerosols alone did result in more lightning due to ice crystal collisions, although at very large
aerosol volumes the effect was muted.
A key question facing researchers is whether
increased electrification is the result
of more
aerosols or an abundance
of warm air.
Scientists have already linked
aerosol emissions to
increases in lightning over areas
of the Amazon prone to forest fires (pdf) as well as regions
of China with thick air pollution.
And while researchers are still striving to fully understand the health and environmental impact
of increased levels
of secondary organic
aerosols in the atmosphere, studies have linked exposure to outdoor
aerosols generally to morbidity and mortality outcomes.
Aerosols that are close in size or larger than the wavelengths
of visible light tend to scatter all colors indiscriminately,
increasing the overall brightness
of the sky but dampening color contrast.
Formation
of solid and liquid
aerosol particles is
increased.
But even this paper qualifies its predictions (whether or not
aerosols would so
increase was unknown) and speculates that nuclear power may have largely replaced fossil fuels as a means
of energy production (thereby, presumably, removing the
aerosol problem).
In addition, our deficient understanding
of aerosol forcing also hinders our ability to use the modern temperature record to constrain the «climate sensitivity» — the operative parameter in determining exactly how much warming will result from a given
increase in CO2 concentration.
Of the other strand, aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate» is the best exempla
Of the other strand,
aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and
Aerosols: Effects
of Large Increases on Global Climate» is the best exempla
of Large
Increases on Global Climate» is the best exemplar.
The Canadian model suppresses the influence
of aerosols in the regional distribution far more, as the direct forcing
of GHGs
increases to 3.3 and 5.8 W / m2 for resp.
Here a reaction on the main points about the natural (solar, volcanic) vs. man - made (GHGs,
aerosols) sensitivity: — If there was a larger temperature variation in the past millennium, the mathematical evidence is that an
increase of one
of the terms
of the temperature trend equation must go at the cost
of one or more other terms
of the equation.
Given the
increasing availability
of aerosol composition data collected from aircraft, the team expects that their approach can be successfully applied to improve understanding
of a wide range
of sophisticated processes and phenomena related to
aerosols, including how properties evolve with time and the dynamic interactions between
aerosols and clouds.
The Hadcm3 model has calculated the largest
increase in temperature which may be attributed to the reduction
of aerosol load (40 %) over the period 1990 - 1999 somewhere in NE Europe, other models do that more in Southern Europe.
Compared to the past decades, the pattern (more emissions in South Asia) and the relative forcings are completely different, with much less relative influence
of aerosols than today (due to faster
increasing CO2 levels).
-- It is practically proven that tropospheric
aerosols have (far) less influence on temperature than expected by current models, see my comment on
aerosols here and the lack
of increase in insolation, despite a huge reduction
of aerosols in Europe, according to Philipona ea.
And finally, current theories based on greenhouse gas
increases, changes in solar, volcanic, ozone, land use and
aerosol forcing do a pretty good job
of explaining the temperature changes over the 20th Century.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the
increase in
aerosols and clouds since pre-industrial times represents one
of the largest sources
of uncertainty in climate change5.
The CARES field campaign was designed to
increase scientific knowledge about the evolution
of black carbon, primary organic
aerosols (POA), and secondary organic
aerosols (SOA) from both human - caused and natural (biogenic) sources.
Analyses
of the ground and aircraft data performed by Setyan et al. (2012), Shilling et al. (2013), and Kleinman et al. (2016) showed that organic
aerosol production
increased when human - caused emissions from Sacramento mixed with air rich in isoprene, an organic compound wafting from many plants that originate in the area's foothills.
Possible reasons include
increased oceanic circulation leading to
increased subduction
of heat into the ocean, higher than normal levels
of stratospheric
aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled cloud feedback effects.
The potential risks around sulfate
aerosol solar geoengineering include alteration
of regional precipitation patterns, its effects on human health, and the potential damage to Earth's ozone layer by
increased stratospheric sulfate particles.
When Aldrin adds a fixed cloud lifetime effect
of -0.25 W / m ^ 2 forcing on top
of his variable parameter direct and (1st) indirect
aerosol forcing, the mode
of the sensitivity PDF
increases from 1.6 to 1.8.
Ice sheet albedo forcing is estimated to have caused a global mean forcing
of about — 3.2 W m — 2 (based on a range
of several LGM simulations) and radiative forcing from
increased atmospheric
aerosols (primarily dust and vegetation) is estimated to have been about — 1 W m — 2 each.
Reduction
of the amount
of atmospheric CH4 and related gases is needed to counterbalance expected forcing from
increasing N2O and decreasing sulfate
aerosols.
Expectations
of decreases in large source regions such as China [195] may be counteracted by
aerosol increases other places as global population continues to
increase.
SAM involves injecting sulfur
aerosols into the stratosphere to
increase the reflectivity
of Earth's atmosphere.
In general, the risk
of aerosol transmission
increases with proximity and duration
of exposure to the source; however, once aerosolized, certain pathogens may remain infective over long distances, depending on particle size, the nature
of the pathogen, and such environmental factors as temperature and humidity.3
In one study, administration
of an
aerosol containing nedocromil sodium
of approximately 15 mg
increased the lag time for the dogs to cough after exposure to a citric acid
aerosol (31).
The AGU statement says that the «not natural» climate changes being recorded — perhaps best exemplified (albeit, I'll admit, overly simple) by the cascade
of recent years all warmer than anything else since 1850 — are «best explained» by the
increasing accumulation
of man - made greenhouse gases and
aerosols.
For example, they predicted the expansion
of the Hadley cells, the poleward movement
of storm tracks, the rising
of the tropopause, the rising
of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation
of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling
of the transmission
of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse effect that results from
increased water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy
of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling
of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.