They hypothesize that natural emissions
of aerosol precursors will increase in a warming climate, causing a negative feedback so as to dampen the warming.
Not exact matches
The researchers [3] quantified China's current contribution to global «radiative forcing» (the imbalance,
of human origin,
of our planet's radiation budget), by differentiating between the contributions
of long - life greenhouse gases, the ozone and its
precursors, as well as
aerosols.
Indeed, the reduction in the emission
of precursors to polluting particles (sulphur dioxide) would diminish the concealing effects
of Chinese
aerosols, and would speed up warming, unless this effect were to be compensated elsewhere, for instance by significantly reducing long - life greenhouse gas emissions and «black carbon.»
Global climate models are essential tools for understanding climate change and for developing policy regarding future emissions
of greenhouse gases, primary
aerosol particles, and
aerosol precursor gases.
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact
of reactive species emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone
precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial climate effect because they increased or decreased the rate
of oxidation
of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
Biomass burning is a big source
of black carbon and organic
aerosols (warming), CO and VOCs (ozone
precursors), also SO2 (leading to sulphate
aerosols)(cooling).
The future concentrations
of LLGHGs and the anthropogenic emissions
of sulphur dioxide (SO2), a chemical
precursor of sulphate
aerosol, are obtained from several scenarios considered representative
of low, medium and high emission trajectories.
• Estimation
of future emissions and biogeochemical cycling (including sources and sinks)
of greenhouse gases,
aerosols and
aerosol precursors and projections
of future concentrations and radiative properties.
(In parts
of Africa, Asia and the Middle East,
aerosols or their
precursors come mainly from desert dust, sea spray or wildfires.)
«We use 1280 years
of control simulation, with constant preindustrial forcings including constant specified CO2, and a five - member ensemble
of historical simulations from 1850 — 2005 including prescribed historical greenhouse gas concentrations, SO2 and other
aerosol -
precursor emissions, land use changes, solar irradiance changes, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes, and volcanic
aerosol (ALL), following the recommended CMIP5 specifications.
These sources have the lowest co-emissions
of aerosols or
aerosol precursors of all the major BC sources.
Source - Any process, activity or mechanism that releases a heat - trapping gas (greenhouse gas), an
aerosol or a
precursor of a greenhouse gas or
aerosol into the atmosphere.
Emissions - Emissions
of heat - trapping gases (greenhouse gases), greenhouse - gas
precursors, and
aerosols associated with human activities.
Consequently, the most advanced climate models now require, in addition to concentrations or emissions
of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O and halocarbons), emissions
of reactive gases and
aerosol precursor compounds (SO2, NOx, VOC, BC, OC and NH3), to model atmospheric chemistry and interactions with the climate system.6 For most variables, a sectoral differentiation would improve the quality
of the calculations (e.g. from power plants and agricultural burning).
This paper deals with measurements
of aerosols, their chemical properties and
precursor trace gases at Agra in the Indo - Gangetic plain.
In densely populated areas however, anthropogenically generated and released hydrocarbons play an important role as
precursor of the development
of secondary organic
aerosols.
For the runs with different emission and «climate» years, e.g. Em2000Cl1850, emissions
of aerosol and ozone
precursors are set to 2000, methane amounts for chemistry are set to 2000, but ozone and methane at 2000 do not affect the radiation (i.e. radiation sees 1850 «climate» conditions for everything but
aerosols).
Although we focus on a hypothesized CR - cloud connection, we note that it is difficult to separate changes in the CR flux from accompanying variations in solar irradiance and the solar wind, for which numerous causal links to climate have also been proposed, including: the influence
of UV spectral irradiance on stratospheric heating and dynamic stratosphere - troposphere links (Haigh 1996); UV irradiance and radiative damage to phytoplankton influencing the release
of volatile
precursor compounds which form sulphate
aerosols over ocean environments (Kniveton et al. 2003); an amplification
of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations by the addition
of energy in cloud - free regions enhancing tropospheric circulation features (Meehl et al. 2008; Roy & Haigh 2010); numerous solar - related influences (including solar wind inputs) to the properties
of the global electric circuit (GEC) and associated microphysical cloud changes (Tinsley 2008).
Despite this, they list their level
of confidence
of aerosols and
precursors as High (Figure 2), but that only applies to anthropogenic sources.
Examples
of such gaseous
aerosol precursors are dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emitted by plankton or iodocompounds created by marine algae.
[Response: For any projection for the future
of climate, you obviously need a projection
of emissions (greenhouse gases, ozone and
aerosol precursors, etc.), land use change and so on.
They produce
aerosols yes, but a lot
of them are black carbon (a warming influence), and they also produce NOx, CO and CH4 (ozone
precursors) as well as CO2
of course.
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an energy imbalance imposed on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar energy output or volcanic emissions) or by human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or emissions
of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and their
precursors).
Thus, we have traditionally studied the impact
of carbon dioxide separately from the impact
of sulphate
aerosols and separately from the impacts
of the emissions that cause ozone (the «
precursors»).
Robock et al used a coupled GCM with interactive
aerosols to see what would happen if they injected huge amounts
of SO2 (the
precursor of sulphate
aerosols) into the tropical or Arctic stratosphere.
RF attributable to individual
aerosol precursors including indirect cloud effects was not provided in AR5, and hence to incorporate this important component for SO2, BC and OC I use a combination
of modeling and literature analysis (Shindell et al. 2012a; Shindell et al. 2009; United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization 2011; hereafter UNEP 2011; see ESM).
All pieces required for the representation
of OA in a global climate model are sketched out with special attention to Secondary Organic
Aerosol (SOA): The emission estimates
of primary carbonaceous particles and SOA
precursor gases are summarized.
We find that the increase in emissions
of inorganic
aerosol precursors is much larger than the corresponding
aerosol increase, reflecting a non-linear atmospheric response.
The climate feedbacks involved with these changes, which are key in understanding the climate system as a whole, include: + the importance
of aerosol absorption on climate + the impact
of aerosol deposition which affects biology and, hence, emissions
of aerosols and
aerosol precursors via organic nitrogen, organic phosphorus and iron fertilization + the importance
of land use and land use changes on natural and anthropogenic
aerosol sources + the SOA sources and impact on climate, with special attention on the impact human activities have on natural SOA formation In order to quantitatively answer such questions I perform simulations
of the past, present and future atmospheres, and make comparisons with measurements and remote sensing data, all
of which help understand, evaluate and improve the model's parameterizations and performance, and our understanding
of the Earth system.
These results suggest that efforts to mitigate atmosphere - related environmental damages should target a broad set
of emissions including CO2, methane and
aerosol / ozone
precursors.
Topics that I work on or plan to work in the future include studies
of: + missing
aerosol species and sources, such as the primary oceanic
aerosols and their importance on the remote marine atmosphere, the in - cloud and
aerosol water aqueous formation
of organic
aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing
aerosol parameterizations, such as the effect
of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and
aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility
of primary organic
aerosols, the importance
of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial
aerosol and
aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change
of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties
of aerosols, which affect
aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution
of absorbing
aerosols +
aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the
aerosol indirect effect and the impact
of clouds on
aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the
aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance
of natural and anthropogenic
aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climate.
[Reply: Knowledge
of industrial output and typical emissions
of said industries; knowledge
of emissions
of SO2 and other
aerosol precursors and the relation with
aerosol properties.