This is one of the best examples of why aerosol mixing state is so important for modeling the effect
of aerosols on climate.
This mis - representation and can have significant ramifications for estimating the direct and indirect effects
of aerosols on climate.
However, given the sensitivity of the Arctic to external forcing and the intense interest in the effects
of aerosols on its climate, it is important to examine and quantify the effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents.
[~ 17 model years](Motivation: Variation in the climate response across models will be a function of (a) different climate sensitivity in the GCMs, (b) different impact
of aerosols on climate (due to location with respect to clouds, water uptake, natural aerosols, mixing, etc), and (c) different 3D constituent fields from the composition models.
The effects
of aerosols on the climate are a problem for the L&S model, as the authors almost admit in the paper:
This section assesses (1) the impact of meteorological (climatic) factors like wind, temperature and precipitation on the natural aerosol burden and (2) possible effects
of aerosols on climate parameters and biogeochemistry.
The impacts
of aerosols on climate are significant, but also very uncertain.
Not exact matches
This critical question is addressed using simulations from
climate models based
on projections
of future emissions
of greenhouse gases and
aerosols.
Overall, improving our understanding
of one
of the largest natural
aerosol sources is critical if we are to understand the effects
of human - made
aerosols on climate,» says Matt Salter.
And by carefully measuring and modeling the resulting changes in atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate
of how sensitive Earth's
climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor
of atmospheric science at the University
of Michigan whose work focuses
on improving global
climate models and their ability to model the interplay between clouds and
aerosol particles.
This finding has implications for the role
of sea spray
aerosols in
climate, especially
on how they interact with solar radiation,» says Paul Zieger, assistant professor at ACES and co-author
of the study.
«We've shown that under clean and humid conditions, like those that exist over the ocean and some land in the tropics, tiny
aerosols have a big impact
on weather and
climate and can intensify storms a great deal,» said Fan, an expert
on the effects
of pollution
on storms and weather.
Unfortunately, current simulation models, which combine global
climate models with
aerosol transport models, consistently underestimate the amount
of these
aerosols in the Arctic compared to actual measurements during the spring and winter seasons, making it difficult to accurately assess the impact
of these substances
on the
climate.
The theory
of dangerous
climate change is based not just
on carbon dioxide warming but
on positive and negative feedback effects from water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne
aerosols from coal burning.
The information could also feed into
climate models to help understand the effects
of clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
But researchers from the University
of Geneva (UNIGE), Switzerland, members
of the PlanetSolar Deepwater expedition, have now succeeded in linking the composition
of marine biological
aerosols — and therefore their influence
on the
climate — to that
of bodies
of water under them within the Atlantic Ocean, thereby paving the way to an indirect study
of these
aerosols through water analysis.
Scientists believe that
aerosols exert an influence
on climate roughly equal to that
of greenhouse gases, but the current estimate
of aerosols»
climate effect carries a large margin
of error.
«There is a link between the chemistry that goes
on in this type
of air motion and the subsequent effects
on the trace gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere that ultimately impact
climate.»
However, he says, «
Aerosol effects
on climate are one
of the main uncertainties in
climate models.
Together with colleagues from Berlin and Geneva,
climate researchers from Karlsruhe Institute
of Technology (KIT) have been investigating the interactions
of laser light and ice clouds using the unique AIDA
aerosol and cloud chamber
on KIT's Campus North.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research
on the global dimming effects
of aerosols.
ARO scientists monitor a range
of atmospheric phenomena, from the influence
of gases and
aerosols on Earth's
climate to the impact
of pollutants in the atmosphere.
Another massive undertaking, the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), meanwhile, was specifically designed to see if
climate forcing
on the part
of aerosol particles could be directly measured.
In the tug
of war,
aerosols don't necessarily counter the impacts
of climate change
on sea ice (or the planet as a whole for that matter).
But there are a lot
of lingering questions, says Stevens, who also was a lead author
on the «Clouds and
Aerosols» chapter
of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.
What's more, according to Tim Bates
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), «there's a very wide range
of sizes [for
aerosol particles], and the effect that the particle is going to have
on climate is going to be very dependent
on its size, which makes it trickier.»
Moving the chemical complexity
of the ocean to the laboratory represented a major advance that will enable many new studies to be performed,» said Kimberly Prather, Distinguished Chair in Atmospheric Chemistry at the University
of California, San Diego and director
of the Center for
Aerosol Impacts
on Climate and the Environment, who led the team
of more than 30 scientists involved in this project.
The latter type
of sensors, Robock notes, could directly measure the size distribution
of aerosols, which could help researchers better model their effects
on climate.
Aerosols in the tropopause also complicate
climate projections; they are not taken into account in the latest assessment released in 2013 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says Yu Gu, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los A
climate projections; they are not taken into account in the latest assessment released in 2013 by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, says Yu Gu, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los A
Climate Change, says Yu Gu, a
climate scientist at the University of California, Los A
climate scientist at the University
of California, Los Angeles.
Aerosols from the production
of heavy oil is a growing
climate and pollution concern because new tar sands developments are
on the drawing board in Venezuela, Utah and elsewhere, the study says.
This simple analysis shows that the «2 degree target»
of «dangerous anthropogenic interference» is looming
on the horizon, as the
climate equilibrates and
aerosol pollution is cleaned up.
Indeed the estimate
of aerosol forcing used in the calculation
of transient
climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from
climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
Climate Change (IPCC).
Therefore studies based
on observed warming have underestimated
climate sensitivity as they did not account for the greater response to
aerosol forcing, and multiple lines
of evidence are now consistent in showing that
climate sensitivity is in fact very unlikely to be at the low end
of the range in recent estimates.
Of the other strand, aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate» is the best exempla
Of the other strand,
aerosol cooling, Rasool and Schneider, Science, July 1971, p 138, «Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and
Aerosols: Effects
of Large Increases on Global Climate» is the best exempla
of Large Increases
on Global
Climate» is the best exemplar.
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that
aerosols are an important
climate forcing, have a net cooling effect
on climate and, in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been part
of mainstream science for 30 years.
The multi-scale
aerosol -
climate model, an extension
of a multi-scale modeling framework, examined specific
aerosol - cloud interactions and their effects
on the Earth's energy budget, one
of the toughest
climate forecasting problems.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative effect
of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in
climate models.
However, to make
climate models more accurate, we are focused
on developing a better understanding
of the dynamics
of organic
aerosols formed from plant - based organic vapors and their interaction with
aerosols emitted from human activities,» said Dr. Chen Song, a PNNL atmospheric scientist.
Fascinatingly, the book from the mid-70s said that there was one
climate scientist — Wally Broecker - who predicted that the greenhouse warming was
on the verge
of overtaking the
aerosol cooling effects and that by the year 2000 the planet would be warmer than it had been in 1000 years.
These programs focus
on climate,
aerosol and cloud physics; global and regional scale modeling; integrated assessment
of global change; and complex regional meteorology and chemistry.
He is particularly interested in the role
of aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere, and has worked
on the processes that describe these components
of the atmosphere, the computational details that are needed to describe them in computer models, and
on their impact
on climate.
PNNL is using an integrative research approach that draws
on our depth and breadth
of capabilities in atmospheric chemistry,
climate physics, modeling, and measurement to address critical scientific questions related to the role
of aerosols in the
climate system.
He is a co-chair
of the U.S. Department
of Energy's Atmospheric Systems Research Cloud -
Aerosol - Precipitation Interactions Working Group, co-chair
of the CESM
Climate - Chemistry Working Group, and served 6 years
on the Scientific Steering Committee for the Community Earth System Model.
Vision PNNL will take a leadership role in the incorporation
of aerosols into
climate models, through integrative research
on atmospheric
aerosol interactions and through development
of innovative instrumentation and measurement techniques.
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the increase in aerosols and clouds since pre-industrial times represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty in climate c
Climate Change (IPCC) considers that the increase in
aerosols and clouds since pre-industrial times represents one
of the largest sources
of uncertainty in
climate c
climate change5.
«If we pursue the same path we are
on today, we will eventually arrive at a better understanding
of the science, but it will be too late,» said Dr. Jerome Fast, a scientist with PNNL's
Aerosol Climate Initiative.
Most
of the non-model estimates
of climate sensitivity are based
on the analyses using other forcings such as solar and
aerosols, and the assumption that sensitivity to CO2 will be the same, despite the differences in way these forcings couple to the
climate system.
These changes made China a unique region to investigate the impact
of aerosols on regional
climate and the hydrological cycle.
The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties in
climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding
of the effect
of climate change
on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding
of regional
climate change, changes in extremes) and reducing uncertainties in radiative forcing — particularly those associated with
aerosols.
Proposed campaigns should focus
on research that addresses the ARM mission
of improving the understanding and representation
of clouds and
aerosols in
climate and earth system models, as well as their interactions and coupling with Earth's surface.