Perovich has done lots of data collection which shows the effects of surface melt ponds on albedo, as also shown by Pistone et al. in figure 3 of their recent PNAS paper: «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice».
Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice.
Eric mentioned the «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» study, here more data:
How much it has grown is not stated in the paper: «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf but it seems very clear that Arctic sea - ice loss is in accelerating decline towards zero in the coming decades, meaning that this forcing will rise very substantially along with those from land - ice and snow cover decline.
With regard to Dr Tobis» observation that: «there's a something on the order of a 10 % chance that we may have already passed the 2 C mark by any reasonable definition» the evidence of a study of Albedo Loss published last January appears to put the issue beyond doubt: «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» (Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman, and V. Ramanathan)
A typo in mine at # 25 is where 40,000 m3 should read 400,000 m3, and an addendum is the reference for the forcing from the Albedo Loss feedback shown in the satellite record: «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf
Not exact matches
These factors have
decreased the region's
albedo, or the fraction
of incoming light that Earth reflects back into space — a change that the CERES instruments are able to measure.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and
albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research on the global dimming effects
of aerosols.
The team's computer simulations suggested that the soot can cause a
decrease of between 1.6 and 4.1 percent in the glacier's
albedo — a measure
of its sunlight - reflecting «whiteness» — and that the resulting heating can cause up to a 24 percent increase in the annual snowmelt, Yasunari reported here Monday at a meeting
of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).
The surface's reflectivity, which scientists call
albedo, could
decrease by as much as 10 percent by the end
of the century, the study finds.
Also about the ice -
albedo feedback within 1K temperature oscillation the
albedo will change
of, let us say, 10 %, so for an increase
of 1K the
albedo will
decrease from A = 0.3 to A = 0.27.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant
decreases in
albedo, effects
of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice
decreasing albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
[Response: weaker cosmic ray flux - > fewer low clouds - >
decrease in sunlight reflected back to space), then you need to explain why the night temperatures appear to increase faster then day temperatures (for any amplification mechanism involving te
albedo, you'd expect the opposite, as there is no sunlight to reflect on the dark side
of the planet...).
Unless low - level cloud
albedo substantially
decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption caused by the reported enhancement
of cloud cover would have resulted in cooling
of the climate system that is inconsistent with the observed temperature record.»
A journalist from Jyllands Posten present at the conference got the message, as my criticism was echoed in a news report the following day («Klimaforskere i åben krig» [translation «Climate researchers in open war»], May 28, 2002): It's tricky to explain how a warming caused by
decreasing albedo would be stronger at the night - side (dark)
of the planet.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much
of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms
decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average;
decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient
decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration
of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Calculations as to the magnitude
of this effect (that is, how dust is needed to significantly
decrease glacier
albedo) certainly have been done, though probably not on a global basis.
That is, by
decreasing the (rather high) Bond
albedo of Earth one could increase rate
of entropy production, which is inconsistent with a MEP state.
For example, [Kruss 1983] has this to say about the Lewis glacier on Mt. Kenya: «A
decrease in the annual precipitation on the order
of 150 mm in the last quarter
of the 19th century, followed by a secular air temperature rise
of a few tenths
of a degree centigrade during the first half
of the 20th century, together with associated
albedo and cloudiness variation, constitute the most likely cause
of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years.»
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant
decreases in
albedo, effects
of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice
decreasing albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
According to the skeptics, the solar irradiance isn't very important, it is the strength
of the sun's magnetic field (that allows or stops cosmic rays from coming in which then causes more or less clouds, which increases or
decreases the Earth's
albedo, which then causes warming or cooling
of the Earth's surface).
On the possibility
of a changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would
decrease with a planet being warmed by
decreased albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
There is also the issue
of increased biological activity in melt ponds
decreasing albedo (beyond that
of the melt ponds themselves).
This positive climate feedback is greater than expected from the additional forcing alone, due to amplification by reduced surface
albedo through melting
of continental snow and
decreased sea - ice coverage, especially in the wintertime.
The resulting increased /
decreased ice is amplified by «various feedbacks, including ice -
albedo, dust, vegetation and,
of course, the carbon cycle which amplify the direct effects
of the orbital changes.»
He goes on to claim that «Pollution increases the
albedo of thin clouds because but, contrary to the present theory,
decreases it for thick clouds.
You seem to hold to those arguments that all this heat increase in the total system since the late 1800s has come at least mostly from a never - ending increase
of heat into the system via either a posited increased output from the sun or a posited
decreased albedo.
In the NH a lot
of land surrounding the arctic ocean is subject to the combination
of decrease in seasonal snow cover (with climate warming), and
decreasing albedo due to vegetation feedbacks.
Here's an example
of your general illogic: Suppose we had a time period in which the planet's
albedo decreased (fewer clouds or aerosols, let's say) but the average surface temperature
of the planet also
decreased.
Decreasing the ratio
of the high
albedo to low
albedo surface increases the solar absorption.
So for example deglaciation warmed global mean temps by about 5 C over 10k years with a radiative forcing
of about 6.5 W / m2 (total
of both GHG increases and
albedo decreases).
Is there a point in global warming where
albedo would suddenly increase instead
of decreasing?
Inceasing oxygen (for example form 20.9 to 30 percent) in my opinion would: Increasing scattering and so
albedo, lowering temperature Increasing total pressure, broadening
of absorption lines, rising temperature Increasing adiabate slope, rising SAT directly but
decreasing water vapor, total effect??
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice
decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect
of reduced winter snow cover
decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
The Amazon and other rainforests drying out The Siberian bogs (the size
of germany, france and the UK combined) start to release methane in accelerating annual volumes Ice
Albedo decreasing Ocean conveyor (thermohaline systems to some) weakening due to freshening
of the seas
If its area doesn't
decrease by much, that will enhance the
albedo of the Northern hemisphere somewhat.
One
of the biggest concerns is that these sudden forests will
decrease the
albedo (literally «whiteness»)
of the tundra where snow cover bounces solar radiation back into the atmosphere creating a cooling effect.
In this new study, the researchers showed that increasing the
albedo of a 1m2 surface by 0.01 would have the same effect on global temperature, over the next 80 years, as
decreasing emissions by around 7 kg
of CO2.
The
decrease in
albedo that accompanies the loss
of sea ice is the phenom that underlies «arctic amplification» (as you point out, it has nothing directly to do with sea level rise).
When the flux is increased, the planet undergoes a
decrease in surface
albedo which is due to the melting
of the permanent polar ice caps and the reduced seasonal snow cover.
We know that
albedo has been
decreasing since the Little Ice Age into what may very well be the peak
of the Current Warm Period.
It caused a bit
of consternation in the 1970's when it was realized that a very small
decrease in solar intensity — or an increase in
albedo — is sufficient to cause a rapid transition to an icy planet in this model (2).
(7) A requirement that building retrofits conducted pursuant to a REEP program utilize, especially in all air - conditioned buildings, roofing materials with high solar energy reflectance, unless inappropriate due to green roof management, solar energy production, or for other reasons identified by the Administrator, in order to reduce energy consumption within the building, increase the
albedo of the building's roof, and
decrease the heat island effect in the area
of the building, without reduction
of otherwise applicable ceiling insulation standards.
A CO2 doubling is about a 1 % increase in forcing and the
albedo feedback
of that forcing
decreases at a faster rate than the forcing increases.
The jets achieve their effect by altering the flow
of energy through the troposphere but in doing so they alter
albedo so, depending on the overall net situation, if another forcing increases or
decreases albedo then the jets may not have to shift so far or the jets may need to move a bit further depending on the net balance at the time.
This is consistent with other recent work that hypothesizes that increase
of melting rates
of Arctic sea ice may be as much due to Chinese black carbon falling on the ice (and thereby
decreasing its
albedo and increasing solar heating) than from rising global temperatures.
All
of this will be over by 2015, when the records
of 2010 and 1998 will have been obliterated by increased solar activity, ENSO and
decreased albedo as we go into virtually ice free arctic summers, oh and increased GHG concentrations
of course.
They also warn that feedback patterns are starting to emerge in the shape
of the ice
albedo effect: ice reflects heat away from the surface, so as it
decreases in extent so warming quickens.
This caused thin first - year sea ice to grow between MY floes thereby
decreasing the overall
albedo of this surface in the Spring
of 2008.
As a result the Earth's global
albedo decreased by the equivalent
of around — 5 W / m ^ 2, i.e.
decrease of reflected SW radiation (= heating
of our planet).