And yes, actually the market reaction has really being quite muted and I don't know whether this partly reflects the new economic norm, you know the flattening of the Phillips Curve, disruptive change, lower inflation the Fed talked about at the Jackson Hole Summit last year, something called Our Star which is going to lower long - term rate
of equilibrium interest rates.
Not exact matches
Doing this well requires the central bank to be able to discern features
of the economy that it can not know with precision — like the potential growth rate or the
equilibrium real
interest rate.
For instance, for Canada and the U.S., we believe that the
equilibrium interest rate in these conditions is on the order
of 3 per cent, like a range
of 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent, so much lower than what we used to think
of as a normal, steady, straight
interest rate.
The next implication
of having a global moderation in trend growth, because
of the demographic reasons I mentioned, the next consequence
of that is that the
equilibrium rate
of interest also goes down.
If it is a new era
of faster growth and new investment opportunities, then the
equilibrium real
interest rate (the rate at which monetary policy neither boosts nor restrains the economy) would rise, so the central bank would be right to move
interest rates towards that level.
If the IT revolution increases profitable investment opportunities, then the
equilibrium real
interest rate must rise in order to encourage households to save more to finance the higher level
of investment.
In an environment
of persistently low inflation and real
equilibrium interest rates, the Fed will not be able to raise rates much further.
Jury is still out on secular stagnation — «At present, it looks likely that the
equilibrium interest rate will remain low for the policy - relevant future, but there have in the past been both long swings and short - term changes in what can be thought
of as
equilibrium real rates»
Even if the Bank
of Japan did keep real and nominal
interest rates low after the country returned to inflation, the old «deflationary
equilibrium» would be broken.
In a floor system, banks are kept flush with excess reserves, and monetary control is exercised, not be adjusting the quantity
of reserves so as to achieve a particular
equilibrium federal funds rate, but by manipulating the
interest rate the Fed pays on banks» required and excess reserves holdings, alone or along with the Fed's overnight reverse - repo (ON - RRP) rate.
I'm
interested to know why, if we have a supposed plethora
of transitional forms, did Punctuated
Equilibrium get pushed forward.
I'm
interested to know why, if we have a supposed plethora
of transitional forms, was there a need for Punctuated
Equilibrium?
Sociology can help us uncover these vested
interests, and, in the process
of proclamation, preachers can become clearer about how particular passages in particular situations call for transformation, or maintain
equilibrium.
«But some very
interesting new states
of matter may occur far away from
equilibrium... and there are many possibilities for that in the quantum domain.
Here's an
interesting paper that is referenced in some
of the listed publications: Meraner et al. 2013, Robust increase in
equilibrium climate sensitivity under global warming, GRL https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01099395/document
It is worth adding though, that temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the
equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is
interested in the near - term implications
of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.
I recently purchased Hair
Equilibrium and strongly recommend it to anyone
interested in a better understanding
of what's causing hairloss from the inside out...
This is an important step, but it's also needs more explanation, so I'm going to make this more
of an introduction and if you're
interested to learn more you check out Hair
Equilibrium.
Saying that all
of the performances in
Equilibrium are fatuous and inane is moot — better to note that Emily Watson (howlingly awful as a doomed love
interest), between this, Red Dragon, and Punch - Drunk Love is now one - for - three for 2002; that Christian Bale is starting to remind me a little
of the lost promise
of Gary Oldman; and that dimwitted films that use poetry as a means toward sublimity (Red Dragon and Blake, Blue Car and Rilke,
Equilibrium and Yeats) would probably be better served to leave the pretension to those able to carry it off.
The central bank pushes
interest rates below the natural rate
of interest (i.e., the one that would exist in an free market
equilibrium), in order to stimulate the economy.
I'm not sure we are even close to the market
equilibrium where passive becomes such a large portion
of total assets that their free - riding efforts destroy market efficiency, but it is certainly an
interesting thing to consider.
But as we shift from what may be perceived as abnormal conditions to more normal conditions — when there is some degree
of volatility and a higher
interest - rate environment — we think the
equilibrium between growth and value will also normalize.
He obtained the delicate
equilibrium he was striving for, he wrote, «by modifying [his] arabesque in such a way that the spectator should be
interested as much by the white page as by the promise
of reading the text.»»
Nevertheless, climate sensitivity is part
of the puzzle, and it particularly matters if you are
interested in stabilisation scenarios, since it indicates what a particular
equilibrium CO2 level will mean for
equilibrium climate.
It is worth adding though, that temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the
equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is
interested in the near - term implications
of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.
Given that uncertainty, I'd far rather see scientists produce 50 - year limits, 100 - yr limits, 150 - yr limits, 250 - yr limits — those are the kinds
of predictions that would be
interesting, as they would give you an idea
of how fast the approach to
equilibrium might be.
In short, though, I think that the
interest in unforced variability and in instabilities both in the field and in the general public masks the well - known fact that the time constant for radiative
equilibrium of the atmosphere alone is on the order
of weeks.
A number
of commentators are very
interested in debating how sensitive the climate is to CO2 (the
equilibrium climate sensitivity, usually expressed as temperature change per doubling
of CO2 consentration).
The high emissivity
of CO2 in the IR actually contributes to our radiative
equilibrium temperature being another 20K or more lower than that but I'll wait until somebody is
interested in implementing the computations in CoSy or puts a table, not a graph,
of an actual measured mean spectrum in my lap.
I am more
interested in the temperature
of earth + atmosphere as observable from space, as that is the temperature determined by radiative
equilibrium adn for which we have comparative data for other planets.
This did not prevent attacks from academics like committed Darwinist Richard Dawkins who said punctuated
equilibrium was «an
interesting but minor wrinkle on the surface
of neo-Darwinian theory».
But as yet does not seem
interesting enough to make me think differently about the contribution
of increased anthropogenic CO2 to the
equilibrium climate sensitivity, or even the transient climate sensitivity.
I know, I know, those
of you who are devoted to the idea
of a lapse rate at true
equilibrium to the extent that you ignore the fact that the solution openly violates the second law won't be swayed by a little thing like the fully worked out solution — which is the one I have in the article at the top, but this exam goes ahead and computes various quantities
of interest and shows that they do the right asymptotic things.
It presupposes that all thermal relaxation that can occur has occurred, unless you wish to work a system with broken ergodicity, or unless you can show that there is a vast separation
of relaxation timescales, one large enough that
equilibrium will not be reached in the particular times
of interest in a particular problem.
The real atmosphere gets the dollop
of heat from the sun; exciting and
interesting stuff happens to
equilibrium w / wire in top post Fig. 1 thereafter.
I have edition 1
of that fine text book and, for
interested posters, the non-isothermal stable
equilibrium temperature profile derived from maximization
of entropy
of the GHG - free adiabatic ideal gas column top post Fig. 1 derivation is in Chapter 4.4 pp.164 - 168 for realistic pressures (holds for ~ 80 %
of pressure range
of earth's atmosphere).
I further believe that the current approach
of modeling the
equilibrium states and treating the transitions between them as only
of secondary
interest is doomed to failure, because for a long time now and for the foreseeable future we're in a transition with no
equilibrium state within a century
of today's date.
Those like you, Basil, who call upon the authority
of journals and persons in the climatology field (who obviously, like yourself, demonstrate a serious lack
of understanding
of such matters as thermodynamic
equilibrium, entropy and unbalanced energy potentials) epitomise the process whereby the greatest hoax
of all time has been, and continues to be promulgated by those with personal pecuniary
interests in maintaining the status quo.
Climate science is tied to the hip
of Greenshirt and leftist
interests and the best you get from Dr. Curry are vague and false
equilibrium about «politics».
If you are only
interested in the long - term
equilibrium behavior
of a system it is understandable that you would think that fast and slow feedback processess could be dismissed as meaningless and superfluous.
Example 4 is the one
of interest where the first body has reached an
equilibrium temperature with the sun and then a second body with a slightly lower temperature is moved into proximity.
Yet firms spend thousands
of hours and dollars seeking the Holy Grail for law firm management:
equilibrium between «work - life balance» and business
interests.
Finding
Equilibrium: Searching for the true value
of a Bitcoin Vinny Lingham, CEO and co-founder
of Gyft, wrote an
interesting take on the state
of Bitcoin, and why current prices are lower than they were just a few months ago.
In the face
of tightening spreads, increased regulation, and the prospects for rising
interest rates, outstanding commercial real estate debt to GDP will continue to rise higher above its long - term
equilibrium.
They have these home prices and
interest going up, so you're kind
of out
of equilibrium,» said Melendez.