Tom, if you compare different models for the regional distribution
of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing and / or temperature response, there are not two models which agree with each other.
Ocko, IB, V Ramaswamy, Y Ming (2014), Contrasting climates responses to the scattering and absorbing
features of anthropogenic aerosol forcings, J. Clim., 27, 5329 - 5345, doi: 10.1175 / JCLI - D -13-00401.1
I pointed out that in GISS - E2 - R the 2000
level of anthropogenic aerosol loading produces direct aerosol TOA radiative forcing of — 0.40 W / m2 in the 2000 climate, but zero forcing in the 1850 climate; and that when the climate state is allowed to evolve as in the all - forcings simulation ozone iRF forcing in GISS - E2 - R is 0.28 W / m2 in 2000 versus 0.45 W / m2 per MEA15.
And over time, despite the cycles of warming and cooling due to this oscillation, despite solar minima, despite cooling from volcanic eruptions and cooling from the massive loading in the
atmosphere of anthropogenic aerosols, the trend in temperatures above the noise clearly continues upwards.
This suggests that temperature in these CMIP5 models may be too sensitive to perturbations in radiative forcing, although this depends on the actual
magnitude of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the modern period.
As noted above, some air pollutants, such as sulphur aerosol, have a significant effect on the climate system, although considerable uncertainties still surround the
estimates of anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
Karsten: So the take - home message would then be that 1) In the mid-century the NH cooled
because of anthropogenic aerosols (especially the most polluted areas) 2) Now anthropogenic aerosols have a larger content of absorptive elements so directly observing this cooling in the most polluted areas is very complicated but we can nevertheless be sure that the global effect of these aerosols is markedly negative.
Regional effects of aerosol forcing are large; regional mean
values of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing can be factors of 5 to 10 higher than the global mean values of 0.5 to 1.5 W m − 2 (IPCC, 2001).
The idea that the small cooling from the 1940s to 1970s is due to natural variability still can not be ruled out, although more likely this is a smaller part of the explanation and the cooling is primarily due to the «dust» neglected by Broecker, i.e. due to the
rise of anthropogenic aerosol pollution (Taylor and Penner, 1994).
Given such a null hypothesis, the official consensus of IPCC (1995) tilts towards a global warming effect of recent trace - gas emissions, which exceeds the cooling
effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions.
«Currently, details are few, but apparently the results of a major scientific study on the effects
of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds are going to have large implications for climate change projections — substantially lowering future temperature rise expectations,» Cato Institute climate scientists Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger
Concurrently, emissions
of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality.
The declining signal over India shown by the GPCP decadal mode is broadly consistent with gauge measurements since the 1950s — that several research groups including my own are trying to understand, perhaps relating to emissions
of anthropogenic aerosol — although there are discrepancies between these gauge - based data sets themselves (see our recent review in Nature Climate Change, for example).
From the IPCC AR4 report, FAQ2.1, Figure 2, the net effect
of anthropogenic aerosols is clearly negative (cooling), totalling about -1.2 W / m2 since the dawn of the industrial era in 1750 to 2005.
In this new study, the authors use a climate model to individually simulate the temperature and climate impact
of anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, ozone, solar insolation, land surface changes, and greenhouse gases.
On the other hand, if
some of the anthropogenic aerosols act as ice nuclei, supercooled clouds could be converted into ice clouds by the glaciation indirect effect (Lohmann, 2002), resulting in more efficient precipitation formation.