The financial concept
of asset correlation is important because the goal of asset allocation is to combine assets with low correlation.
Because
of the asset correlations, the total portfolio risk, or standard deviation, is lower than what would be calculated by a weighted sum.
Beyond that, no modeling
of asset correlations would be brought into the modeling because risky asset correlations go to one in a crisis.
Not exact matches
Proper
asset allocation exploits the differences in
correlation of those
assets, thereby reducing risk proportionately more than reducing return.
Looking at a simple
asset allocation, a theoretical allocation to long - dated U.S. bonds (+20 years) fluctuates from as low as 3 % to as high as 25 % based on changes to the risk model, i.e.
correlation of different
asset classes.
The growing interdependence can be seen in the increased
correlation of market movements both across countries and across
asset classes.
(A
correlation of 1 means two
asset classes move in lockstep.
Many investors think
of real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a distinct
asset class because, in aggregate, they historically have had relatively low
correlation with stocks and bonds.
«Investment professionals will look at the
correlation between
assets — that is, how closely the prices
of two
assets have moved together in the past.
High Frequency Cross-Market Activity in US Treasury Markets looks at the increased high - frequency
correlation of trading activity across
assets and trading platforms.
But no higher as the increasing
correlation of assets begins to increase volatility at that point.
Since ETFs come in many flavors
of asset classes, those with a low
correlation to the direction
of the US equity markets (commodity, currency, fixed income, etc.) sometimes present low - risk swing trade setups that are largely independent
of broad market trend.
Volatility and
correlations have been relatively low, but that creates some challenges in finding the right blend
of risk
assets and stable diversification.
The lack
of liquidity and higher leveraging
of investments via crowdfunding platforms relative to REITs makes them much riskier, yet their incrementally higher promised returns and incrementally lower implied
correlations with other
asset classes don't seem to compensate for the added downsides.
First, per the findings
of «
Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors», we measure the average monthly return for DBV and the average pairwise
correlation of DBV monthly returns with the monthly returns
of the above
assets.
He distinguishes inflation hedging (measured by
correlation of returns and inflation) from long - run
asset class performance.
In their May 2012 paper entitled «Adaptive
Asset Allocation: A Primer», Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo backtest a progression
of strategies culminating in an Adaptive
Asset Allocation (AAA) strategy that incorporates return predictability from relative momentum (last 120 trading days, about six months), volatility predictability from recent volatility (last 60 trading days) and pairwise
correlation predictability from recent
correlations (last 250 trading days).
I know much has been said about the conventional strategy
of passive investing, which is to pick your
asset classes according to
correlations, rebalance often, and stick to your allocations, whatever the market does.
Currently the primary drawback is not in managed futures themselves — I believe they provide diversification benefits because
of their low
correlation to popular
asset classes — but that ETF and mutual fund options are limited in the managed future space.
In particular, the organization raised concerns about leveraged trading
of cryptocurrencies, though it acknowledged that the low
correlation between cryptocurrencies and other
assets «suggests that the risk
of spillovers from idiosyncratic price moves in crypto
assets to the wider market may be limited at this point.»
This involves leveraging a portfolio
of government bonds, equities, and other
assets based on their historic volatilities and
correlations.
But in the last few episodes
of sharp stock market drops, bonds went up (US government bonds are a safe haven
asset and appreciate in crisis periods) so the only thing better than 3 months worth
of expenses in a money market fund is having 3 + x months worth
of expenses in the bond portfolio due to higher bond yields and negative
correlation between bonds and stocks.
So while low and negative interest rates across the globe has inspired flows into stocks, emerging market bonds and corporate credit in search
of higher yields, keep in mind the high
correlations of these
assets to oil prices and the advantages
of holding actual diversifiers in your portfolio to smooth the ride.
Fortunately, high
correlations with oil since earlier this year have meant strong performance for most
of these riskier
assets.
Stretched valuations, high levels
of uncertainty about the macroeconomic backdrop and tight
correlations would seem to warrant a closer look at
assets that can help offer true diversification benefits and downside protection in the event
of another synchronized decline across a whole spectrum
of riskier
assets.
Correlation risk: «The concept of diversification is the foundation of modern portfolio theory... The financial engineer... reduces the risk of a portfolio by combining anti-correlated assets... All modern portfolio theory does is transfer price risk into hidden short correlation risk... Many popular institutional investment strategies derive excess returns via implicit leveraged short correlation trades with hidden fragility... Correlation risk can be isolated and actively traded via options as source of exce
Correlation risk: «The concept
of diversification is the foundation
of modern portfolio theory... The financial engineer... reduces the risk
of a portfolio by combining anti-correlated
assets... All modern portfolio theory does is transfer price risk into hidden short
correlation risk... Many popular institutional investment strategies derive excess returns via implicit leveraged short correlation trades with hidden fragility... Correlation risk can be isolated and actively traded via options as source of exce
correlation risk... Many popular institutional investment strategies derive excess returns via implicit leveraged short
correlation trades with hidden fragility... Correlation risk can be isolated and actively traded via options as source of exce
correlation trades with hidden fragility...
Correlation risk can be isolated and actively traded via options as source of exce
Correlation risk can be isolated and actively traded via options as source
of excess returns.
The strategy allocates risk and leverage based on variance assuming stable
correlations... The risk parity strategy, decomposed, is actually a portfolio
of leveraged short
correlation trades (alpha) layered on top
of linear price exposure to the underlying
assets (beta).
They define an
asset as a safe haven from another if returns
of the former exhibit zero or negative
correlation with returns
of the latter when the latter experiences a sharp drawdown.
They examine three measures
of return comovement for each
asset class: average pairwise
correlation, average beta relative to the world market and average idiosyncratic volatility.
Their simulation approach preserves most
of the
asset class time series characteristics, including stocks - bonds
correlations.
Regardless, we believe this
correlation change is secular in nature and that there will be a sustained dispersion
of returns across different market cap
assets for 2018 (which we posit is a good thing).
Even in the immediate aftermath
of the crisis,
correlations remained unusually high as investors fixated on macro events — the European debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff, Greece — that transcended
asset classes and geographies.
Our Multi-
Asset Concentration index — a measure
of correlations across 14 global
asset classes — is hovering well below its post-crisis average, according to our Risk and Quantitative Analysis group.
To investigate, we consider the following set
of mutual funds (partly adapted from the paper summarized in «
Asset Allocation Combining Momentum, Volatility,
Correlation and Crash Protection»):
First, per the findings
of «
Asset Class Diversification Effectiveness Factors», we measure the average monthly return for BWX and the average pairwise
correlation of BWX monthly returns with the monthly returns
of the above
assets.
(A «1»
correlation means
assets always move in the same direction; «0» means they move together 50 %
of the time; and «-1» means they never move together.)
OECD explains that the
correlation occurs because «students with good reading skills, regardless
of their background, have a much easier time finding their way around — and mining the considerable
assets of — the Internet.»
Fortunately, high
correlations with oil since earlier this year have meant strong performance for most
of these riskier
assets.
As such, although there is no necessary
correlation or non-
correlation between
assets classes, managed futures as an
asset class offer a potential diversification benefit over long - term periods, particularly during periods
of significant market turbulence.
Correlations of REITs with traditional
asset classes are time varying, and the
correlation with equities reached a peak
of 0.89 shortly after the 2008 financial crisis (September 2009) and gradually fell to 0.29 by December 2010.
That's because the standard deviation
of returns changes over time, as does the
correlation between
asset classes.
In case
of crises,
correlation go up and almost all
assets go down.
There was an interesting post on Bloomberg regarding
asset class
correlations, and a lot
of blogs wrote about it, including Abnormal Returns, which did a nice summary, and expanded the argument to...
However, the high
correlation between risky
assets experienced recently like during the recession
of 2001 - 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2007 - 2009 has caused many investors to reconsider allocating by traditional
asset classes defined by security type like stocks, bonds and real estate or commodities.
A recent column from Bloomberg Gadfly discusses increasing
correlations of asset classes.
But good diversification is only one layer
of protection and as investors have learned, it can have an inherent weakness in bear markets where
correlation between
asset classes can go to one at light speed.
«Investment professionals will look at the
correlation between
assets — that is, how closely the prices
of two
assets have moved together in the past.
The main inspiration for the tweaks comes from reading Rick Ferri's book All About
Asset Allocation — I finally found a book that laid out the main aspects
of portfolio selection in a thorough way, with enough graphs and
correlation coefficients to satisfy my inner mathematics geek.
I also assess the potential
correlation of long - term business outcomes among the different investments in order to manage the portfolio's correlated
assets to be consistent with the 10 % criteria.
During periods
of crisis like 2008, we saw that historical
correlations broke down and
asset classes started moving in tandem.