Living benefits for variable insurance contracts do not have a good theory behind them, because the
performance of asset markets is unpredictable.
Second, imagine someone who is the best in class at a low - return
area of the asset markets, like Jim Chanos in short - selling, or Bill Gross at Pimco.
Montier argued that they are confusing the distribution of economic outcomes — and the forecast of those outcomes — with the distribution
of asset market returns.
The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has broken through the «psychologically important» level of 3 percent, leaving analysts contemplating what it could mean the
future of asset markets and, more importantly, the global economy.
Obviously, there has to be a lot of sensitivity to the exit strategy, obviously there has to be a lot of sensitivity to possible distortions in the
functioning of the asset markets.
A recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in economics, Shiller authored a book, fittingly titled «Irrational Exuberance,» in which he asserts that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent
characteristic of asset markets.
To gauge this we start by doing relatively simple things, like looking at the level of interest rates — in nominal and real terms — compared with history, examining the pattern and strength of credit growth, the
state of asset markets, the level of the exchange rate and so on.
Even then, unlike LTCM, which had many of these same trades on but in a levered fashion, a bad year for PIMCO would ruin their track record, but most of their clients would deem the losses mild in comparison with whatever happened to the
rest of the asset markets during a crisis that moved interest rates so severely.
Together they cause mispricing across the
spectrum of asset markets, notably the inversion of risk and return, bubbles and crashes, and secular over-valuation.
Another coherent definition of a bubble has less to do with a dynamic price path and ongoing resale for gain, but rather there may be a (temporary) segmentation across
classes of asset market buyers.
I heartily agree; I think that the more one studies the
structure of asset markets, the more they will understand that there are many approaches to the market, and the popularity of strategies depends a lot on past success.
market expenses, and the reputation of the asset
They also describe
areas of the asset markets that are less correlated with domestic stocks and bonds — Real Estate, TIPS, Stable Value (I would note the over a long period stable value and bonds do equally well), Commodities, International Stocks, and Immediate Annuities.
The bottom line: Pervasive myths such as those above hold little importance for the ultimate trajectory of the economy and the
performance of asset markets.
They also describe areas
of the asset markets that are less correlated with domestic stocks and bonds — Real Estate, TIPS, Stable Value (I would note the over a long period stable value and bonds do equally well), Commodities, International Stocks, and Immediate Annuities.