In a warmer climate, the atmosphere can hold even more moisture, so it is not surprising that the
number of atmospheric river days will increase in the future.
However, our result of multi-year drought predictability suggests that the annual
frequency of atmospheric river water supply is controlled by large - scale climate variability and change.
A study published earlier this year found that climate change may contribute to the
growth of atmospheric rivers, increasing the threat of associated flooding.
Then a steady stream
of atmospheric river events brought double the long - term average of rain and snow to the Sierra Nevada between October 2016 and April 2017.
In looking at recent observations, a detectable signal has not yet arisen out of the background noise made up by natural variability to confirm that climate change is already affecting the frequency
of atmospheric rivers storms in California.
«A better understanding of when atmospheric river events occur in the Southeast, their basic characteristics, and the weather patterns conducive for their development will lead to improved forecasting and community awareness
of atmospheric rivers in the region,» Debbage said.
Results: A strikingly large increase in the number
of atmospheric river days awaits the U.S. west coast if climate warming remains relatively unchecked.
Payne, A. E., and G. Magnusdottir (2015): An evaluation
of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5, J. Geophys.
«Given that atmospheric rivers over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans appear as coherent filaments of water vapor lasting for up to a week, and that Lagrangian coherent structures have turned out to explain the formation of other geophysical flows, we wondered whether Lagrangian coherent structures might somehow play a role in the
formation of atmospheric rivers,» said study coauthor Vicente Perez - Munuzuri, a physicist at the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain.
According to the study, winter flooding in the UK is set to get more severe and more frequent under the influence of climate change as a result of a change in the
characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs).
They compared two simulations, present and future,
of atmospheric rivers determined from the vertically integrated water vapor flux to quantify the changes in atmospheric rivers that make landfall over western North America.
To improve local understanding and manage the
impacts of atmospheric river events, the B.C. Ministry of Environment commissioned work to summarize the current state of knowledge pertaining to BC on this topic and conduct a multi-agency qualitative risk assessment.
The spatial extent, intensity and
location of atmospheric river (AR) landfall are well reproduced by the RCMs, as is the fraction of winter rainfall from AR days.
What the image shows: A tight arc of clouds stretching from Hawaii to California, which is a visible manifestation
of an atmospheric river of moisture flowing into western states.
«That is about two to three times the typical
length of an atmospheric river,» said Bin Guan, a researcher at the Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, a collaboration between NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Los Angeles.
In one sentence: A strikingly large increase in the
number of atmospheric river days awaits the U.S. west coast if climate warming remains relatively unchecked, according to researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Climate models project that the intensity and
duration of atmospheric rivers increase in the Golden State in a warming climate, with the most intense atmospheric river storms becoming more frequent.
The state experienced a four - year drought between 2012 and 2016, and then what they call «an extraordinarily high number
of atmospheric river storms» in the winter of 2016 - 2017.
«A large portion
of atmospheric river research has focused on the western coast of the United States, so the goal of this study was to improve our understanding of atmospheric river events throughout the Southeast,» said Neil Debbage, doctoral candidate in the UGA department of geography and first author on the study.
This study found that associated with a poleward shift of the subtropical jet in the North Pacific basin, the number
of atmospheric river days increases much more significantly in Alaska during spring because both increased moisture and increased wind speed gang up to increase the frequency of atmospheric rivers.