(SW - CLR is related to the distribution
of atmospheric water vapour and aerosol which has a close link to the model dynamical processes).
In view of the much larger quantities and absorbing power
of atmospheric water vapour it was concluded that the effect of carbon dioxide was probably negligible.»
However, human activities have only a small direct influence on the amount
of atmospheric water vapour.»
Not exact matches
Combining observations from satellites and ground stations with climate models, they evaluated different factors that affect telescope vision, such as the amount
of water vapour, wind speeds and
atmospheric turbulence.
Those data, to be collected this year and next, could improve climate models, which account poorly for these
atmospheric interactions and contain «horrific» uncertainties about the levels and behaviour
of water vapour at stratospheric altitudes, Austin says.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response
of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast feedbacks» have occurred (
atmospheric temperatures, clouds,
water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any
of the «slow» feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon cycle etc.).
Recent studies have shown a doubling
of stratospheric
water vapour, likely from increasing
atmospheric heights due to global warming, overshooting thunderstorm tops from stronger tropical cyclones and mesoscale convective systems etc...
Initial data from the Cassini - Huygens spacecraft, which began exploring the Saturnian system in 2004, show that methane is indeed a minor
atmospheric constituent but a very important one, possibly playing a role analogous to that
of water vapour in Earth's troposphere.
His research interests are the basic physics
of the
atmospheric response to climate change, particularly the
water vapour feedback.
Observational evidence indicates that the frequency
of the heaviest rainfall events has likely increased within many land regions in general agreement with model simulations that indicate that rainfall in the heaviest events is likely to increase in line with
atmospheric water vapour concentration.
Simulations and observations
of total
atmospheric water vapour averaged over oceans agree closely when the simulations are constrained by observed SSTs, suggesting that anthropogenic influence has contributed to an increase in total
atmospheric water vapour.
This heat leads to great quantities
of water vapour introduced in the
atmospheric circulation.
Scientists agree that a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature increases
of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C, caused by rapid changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour
of clouds and
water vapour.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response
of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast feedbacks» have occurred (
atmospheric temperatures, clouds,
water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any
of the «slow» feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon cycle etc.).
If the enhanced
atmospheric warming from a CO2 - induced temperature rise
of 1 oC results in enhanced
water vapour that gives an additional warming
of say x oC, the overall warming (doubled CO2 +
water vapour feedback; leaving out other feedbacks for now) will be something like 1.1 * (1 + x + x2 + x3...) or 1.1 / (1 - x)-RSB-.
However, calculation
of the radiative forcing is again a job for the line - by - line codes that take into account
atmospheric profiles
of temperature,
water vapour and aerosols.
The rise
of CO2 from 270ppm to now over 400ppm, the extent
of equatorial and sub tropical deforestation, the soot deposits on the polar ice caps, the increase in
atmospheric water vapour due to a corresponding increase in ocean temps and changes in ocean currents, the extreme ice albedo currently happening in the arctic etc, etc are all conspiring in tandem to alter the climate as we know it.
And the other sort
of latent heat, a decrease in
atmospheric water vapour is also the stuff
of fantasy requiring a change
of 50,000 cu km when the atmosphere only contains (and only can contain) ~ 13,000 cu km without crazy temperature increases.
In GCMs, the global mean evaporation changes closely balance the precipitation change, but not locally because
of changes in the
atmospheric transport
of water vapour.
All that said, we can draw the conclusion that the theoretical effects
of CO2 do in fact exist, they have been measured over a 10 cm path length, and from this we can extrapolate that a still higher sensitivity would be arrived at once the entire
atmospheric scale and the change in
water vapour concentration from bottom to top
of that scale is taken into account.
Thus a change
of water vapour, sky radiation and tempcrature is corrected by a change
of cloudiness and
atmospheric circulation, the former increasing the reflection loss and thus reducing the effective sun heat.
However, you have avoided my last comment that without a positive feedback from
water vapour there is no chance
of runaway global warming arising from increasing
atmospheric CO2 levels.
The identified
atmospheric feedbacks including changes in planetary albedo, in
water vapour distribution and in meridional latent heat transport are all poorly represented in zonal energy balance model as the one used in [7] whereas they appear to be
of primary importance when focusing on ancient greenhouse climates.
To claim that the entire system
of atmospheric temperature moderation has been described by the fluctuations
of atmospheric CO2 content while excluding the other obvious factors such as
atmospheric water vapour content, solar flux and orbital mechanics is just nonsense.
The so - called
water vapour feedback, caused by an increase in
atmospheric water vapour due to a temperature increase, is the most important feedback responsible for the amplification
of the temperature increase.
Why do you believe that
water vapour can make clouds under the right
atmospheric conditions, yet
water vapour that comes out
of a jet exhaust shouldn't do the same?
Since then, satellite reading
of temperatures and the occlusion
of numerous infrared bands, ground based, aircraft and balloon measurements
of same, and an ever - increasing data base
of the optical properties
of CO2 (and other gases, like
water vapour), have helped refine radiation calculations towards determining the
atmospheric heat budget.
The second factor is the insulating effect
of the atmosphere
of which well over 90 % results from
atmospheric water in the form
of clouds and
water vapour with the remaining 10 % due primarily from CO2 and ozone with just a slightly detectable effect from methane and a trivial effect from all the other gases named in tyhe Kyoto Accord that is so small it can't even be detected on measurements
of the Earth's radiative spectrum.
The combinations
of factors — ice, cloud,
water vapour,
atmospheric temperature — caused cooling in the first years
of the century and a little warming since.
Without the radiative forcing provided by noncondensing GHGs, the most important
of which is CO2, levels
of water vapour would also decline and
atmospheric temperatures would rapidly drop.
[The paper was] the first proper computation
of global warming and stratospheric cooling from enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, including
atmospheric emission and
water -
vapour feedback.
I wonder if these models recognize the loss
of atmospheric water that has occurred since 1948 or do they ignore the reality and build in a
water vapour feedback loop to boost the supposed backwelling radiation to the surface.
«Trends in observed
atmospheric water vapour are hampered by inhomogeneities in data records, which occur when measurement programmes are discontinued because
of, for example, the limited lifespans
of satellite missions or insufficiently documented or understood changes in instrumentation.
The major GHG by far is
water vapour and
atmospheric humidity has declined slightly
of recent.
One idea was that increased IR radiated from
water vapour in these air masses could off - set expansion due to release
of latent heat, and ad drive horizontal circulation This had to be attacked as it showed a role for radiative gases in
atmospheric circulation.
Areas with very high (40,000 ppm)
of water vapour can easily be compared to areas at the same latitude with very low (nearly 0 ppm)
of water vapour and the net radiation across the
atmospheric column is precisely opposite to what you insist your experiments prove.
After all CO2 is itself only a tiny portion
of total greenhouse gases so that it can not have any significant long term effect when the
water vapour primarily affecting
atmospheric heat retention is in turn itself but a tiny proportion
of global heat retaining capacity when one adds in the vastly greater oceanic heat retaining effect.
The role
of convection and the subsequent condensation out
of water vapour into clouds and then rainfall is currently incapable
of quantification as a means
of slowing or offsetting any
atmospheric greenhouse effect but it certainly does those things.
So, that's 1.2 degrees C for the basic physics
of added greenhouse effect
of a doubling
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; coupled with a further increase
of a similar magnitude from changes in
atmospheric water vapour that come about as a direct consequence.
Methane is an important part
of the anthropogenic radiative forcing Methane emissions have a direct GHG effect, and they effect
atmospheric chemistry and stratospheric
water vapour which have additional impacts natural feedbacks involving methane likely to be important in future — via wetland response to temperature / rain change,
atmospheric chemistry and, yes, arctic sources There are large stores
of carbon in the Arctic, some stored as hydrates, some potentially convertible to CH4 by anaerobic resporation [from wikianswers: Without oxygen.
Three analyses
of the NASA NVAP satellite data show little or no empirical correlation between either surface temperature or
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, Solomon et al in fact shows a 10 % decrease in stratospheric
water vapour in the decade pre-2000.
Motivated by findings that major components
of so - called cloud «feedbacks» are best understood as rapid responses to CO2 forcing (Gregory and Webb in J Clim 21:58 — 71, 2008), the top
of atmosphere (TOA) radiative effects from forcing, and the subsequent responses to global surface temperature changes from all «
atmospheric feedbacks» (
water vapour, lapse rate, surface albedo, «surface temperature» and cloud) are examined in detail in a General Circulation Model.
Humans have no direct control over
atmospheric concentrations
of water vapour, although it can act as an enhancer for any global warming.
The physics that must be included to investigate the moist greenhouse is principally: (i) accurate radiation incorporating the spectral variation
of gaseous absorption in both the solar radiation and thermal emission spectral regions, (ii)
atmospheric dynamics and convection with no specifications favouring artificial
atmospheric boundaries, such as between a troposphere and stratosphere, (iii) realistic
water vapour physics, including its effect on
atmospheric mass and surface pressure, and (iv) cloud properties that respond realistically to climate change.
It is well known that a doubling
of atmospheric CO2 levels could result in temperature increases
of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C, due to fast changes such as snow and ice melt, and the behaviour
of clouds and
water vapour.
Based on the understanding
of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin
of inter-model differences in the simulation
of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the
water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response
of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response
of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or
atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation
of sea ice thickness.
Bear in mind that the representation
of clouds in climate models (and
of the
water vapour which is intimately involved with cloud formation) is such as to amplify the forecast global warming from increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide — on average over most
of the models — by a factor
of about three (5).
By shifting a higher proportion
of the IR towards the
atmospheric window, less is absorbed in the atmosphere and that has to be primarily
water vapour side - bands.
The resulting warming due to the
water vapour is in fact larger than the initial warming due to the CO2 that forced it to happen, and this is the point
of the Lacis paper - yes,
water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas than CO2, but
water vapour doesn't change systematically with time UNLESS CO2 is changing and initiating a warming that sets into motion the surface and
atmospheric processes that allow
water vapour to systematically increase.
CO2 is irrelevant to
atmospheric warming — after the first 120m
of traverse
of LWIR through the atmosphere
water vapour absorbs the IR to extinction and there is nothing left for the CO2 bands to absorb.