Not exact matches
I'll repeat what I wrote during the 2000 - 2002
bear market: at meaningful
market lows, «the tenor
of news reports has always been something to the effect that «
conditions are bad, expected to get worse, and there is no end in sight.»
For now, we remain defensive, but we recognize the potential for a «
bear market rally» despite
conditions that, as yet, do not provide enough evidence to warrant removing a significant portion
of our hedges.
Extremes in observable
conditions that we associate with some
of the worst moments in history to invest include: Aug 1929 (with the October crash within 10 weeks
of that instance), Aug - Oct 1972 (with an immediate retreat
of less than 4 %, followed a few months later by the start
of a 50 %
bear market collapse), Aug 1987 (with the October crash within 10 weeks), July 1999 (associated with a quick 10 %
market plunge within 10 weeks), another signal in March 2000 (with a 10 % loss within 10 weeks, a recovery into September
of that year, and then a 50 %
market collapse), July - Oct 2007 (followed by an immediate plunge
of about 10 % in July, a recovery into October, and another signal that marked the
market peak and the beginning
of a 55 %
market loss), two earlier signals in the recent half - cycle, one in July - early Oct
of 2013 and another in Nov 2013 - Mar 2014, both associated with sideways
market consolidations, and the present extreme.
«The supply
of U.S. -
born / residents, particularly men, to science and engineering appears to be more responsive to labor
market conditions than the supply
of the foreign
born,» Freeman continues.
Remarks: Due to their conceptual scope — and if not explicitly stated otherwise — , all models / setups / strategies do not account for slippage, fees and transaction costs, do not account for return on cash and / or interest on margin, do not use position sizing (e.g. Kelly, optimal f)-- they're always «all in «-- , do not use leverage (e.g. leveraged ETFs), do not utilize any kind
of abnormal
market filter (e.g. during
market phases with extremely elevated volatility), do not use intraday buy / sell stops (end -
of - day prices only), and models / setups / strategies are not «adaptive «(do not adjust to the ongoing changes in
market conditions like bull and
bear markets).
Discover why it's important to know the characteristics
of bull and
bear markets, the two types
of market conditions.
The housing
market may fluctuate with the economic trends
of the day, but one thing that often remains the same no matter what the current
conditions bear is the difficulty many consumers will face when applying for a home mortgage.
As
of last week,
market conditions continued to be characterized by an unusually extreme syndrome
of overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising interest rate
conditions (see A Reluctant
Bear's Guide to the Universe).
In recent weeks,
market conditions have established an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising - yield syndrome in a mature bull
market;
conditions that uniquely marked the peaks
of advances in 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000, 2007, and 2011 (see A Reluctant
Bear's Guide to the Universe).
The good news is that none
of these
conditions signal an imminent
bear market.
What followed was 70 years
of secular
bear market conditions.
Buffett has some pretty pointed comments about this in relaying his purchase
of Washington Post at the depths
of the 73 - 74
bear market which arguably rivaled the sort
of panic
conditions in late 08 / early 09.
It was positive the highest percentage
of the time, 74 %, in
bear markets that lost more than 20 %, an on average gold gained 6.5 % historically in this
condition.
It is believed that there is a possibility to earn money on the
conditions of bull and
bear markets on trading and
of course investments.
Bear markets are invariably preceded by excess in the economy — over investment, high levels
of debt growth, high levels
of inflation and tight monetary
conditions — and excess in the share
market in the form
of overvaluation and investor euphoria.
Commercial lawyers need to develop a detailed and rounded knowledge
of their clients» industry sectors, competitors,
market conditions and other factors which have a
bearing on how they do business.
When
market conditions show negative response to fluctuations, one
of the adverse effects the economy
bears is a tightening
of credit
conditions.
Other factors include being
bored of their current home (16 per cent), investment opportunities (15 per cent) and
market conditions (15 per cent).