Similarly, measures
of bond market volatility are also benign.
Not exact matches
LONDON, April 23 - Hamstrung by a renewed slump in
volatility and lack
of clear
market direction, FX and
bond speculators are making historically big bets on a lower dollar and higher yields.
Patricia Oey, a senior analyst at Morningstar who focuses on ETFs, said investors should be aware
of volatility in emerging
market bonds.
The chart shows the number
of transactions in Treasury
bonds divided by the MOVE index, or Merrill Lynch Option
Volatility Estimate, which measures Treasury market v
Volatility Estimate, which measures Treasury
market volatilityvolatility.
After a rough summer
of market volatility and expectations
of rising interest rates,
bonds are back.
Yet managing a smooth transition out
of the extraordinary
bond purchases «could prove challenging» as both interest rates and
market volatility rise.
Although it is fair to say that the recent uptick in
volatility has in part reduced earlier concerns about prolonged low
volatility and associated reach - for - yield behavior, it has placed added focus on the resilience
of liquidity, particularly in
markets, such as the
market for corporate
bonds, that may be prone to gapping between liquidity demand and supply in stressed conditions.
You could say that 2018 is still a young year and it's way too early to judge things, which is true, but the level
of volatility in both stocks and
bonds during February is making this year feel like we've lived through two full years already, and I think what the
markets are signaling is more likely to be a sea change than a blip.
[T] he dramatic increase in leveraged
bond positions by both US hedge funds and mundane money managers set in motion self - reinforcing liquidations once uncertainty over emerging
markets including Turkey, Venezuela, Mexico, and Malaysia - all
of which experienced sharp capital flow
volatility - put pressure on speculative positions.
But amid the optimism, some investors also have an eye on potential causes for concern, including the end
of the bull run for
bonds and persistent low
volatility in
markets.
The bank's MOVE Index
of volatility in the world's largest
bond market was at 82.7 on May 29, up from 75.3 at the end
of April and compared with an average
of 77.6 over the past five years.
Bond traders also keep an eye on the VIX, a measure
of stock -
market volatility, since it has historically been highly correlated to the performance
of stocks: rising when stocks sell off and falling when stocks rally.
«
Market volatility should be a reminder for you to review your investments regularly and make sure you consider an investing strategy with exposure to different areas
of the
markets — U.S. small and large caps, international stocks, investment - grade
bonds — to help match the overall risk in your portfolio to your personality and goals,» says Dowd.
Right now both the
bond and stock
markets are reflecting low levels
of volatility.
Bonds rated below investment grade may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those
of other securities, including greater credit risk and price
volatility in the secondary
market.
Bond act as both a
volatility - minimizer for those investors that can't stomach a large stock allocation and a source
of stability during stock
market sell - offs for either spending purposes or liquidity for those that need to rebalance into lower stock prices.
With
market volatility hitting multi-decade lows, junk
bond yields also at record lows, the median price / revenue ratio
of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket» in the prices
of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift in risk premiums.
Volatility roared into global
markets in February after a prolonged calm in 2017, roiling stocks,
bonds, currencies and commodities, and remained elevated through the end
of March.
The fund adjusts its allocations daily based upon equity and
bond market volatility, correlation between the
bond and equity indexes, and the yield - to - maturity
of the
bond index.
This would help mitigate the risks associated with what is widely perceived as a «liquidity illusion».10 The transition to such a
market environment, however, could be accompanied by strained
market conditions, as suggested by recent episodes
of elevated
bond market volatility.
Given the above, it is reasonable to argue that even a small scale
volatility shock would likely induce heightened
market reaction, even if the event merely reverses some
of the term premium compression in the sovereign
bond markets.
For individual investors, the
bond -
market volatility played out in the form
of sizeable losses in
bond funds.
If your skittish about
market volatility, hold greater percentages
of bond funds and lesser amounts
of stock funds.
«When I purchased long - term zero - coupon
bonds in the early 1980's at
market yields in excess
of 13 %, I welcomed the prospect
of outsized
volatility because I felt it would eventually work in my favour.»
Chapter 4 — International Capital
Market History examines returns (nominal and real) and
volatilities of stocks,
bonds and bills across 16 countries for 101 years from 1900 to 2000.
We are witnessing a gradual degradation
of corporate credits, and an increase in
bond market volatility appears likely over the coming months.
Higher oil prices would reinforce current
market trends based on reflation: rising long - term
bond yields and a shift out
of perceived safer assets —
bond proxies and low -
volatility stocks — and into cyclical assets such as EM.
While base rates kept at or close to zero for almost seven years and three massive asset - buying programs by the Fed have undoubtedly helped stabilize the US (and world) economy during and after the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the continuation
of expansionary monetary policies is now supporting a growing excess
of global liquidity that has been distorting the
market signals sent by stock and
bond prices and thus contributing to the growing
volatility seen in recent weeks.
Stock and
bond markets barely budged as two huge pieces
of news hit the wires Thursday, a counterintuitive, but typical, reaction in a year that has seen record - low
volatility in financial
markets.
Composite Treasuries Sentiment: Taking a broader view
of bond market sentiment (our composite
bond market sentiment indicator combines the signal from futures positioning, fund flows, implied
volatility, and global
bond market breadth), it's readily apparent that
bond market sentiment has seen a reset from relatively stretched bearishness to just on the bullish side
of neutral (i.e. the indicator is saying participants have gone from expecting higher
bond yields to expecting lower
bond yields).
High yield
bonds (
bonds rated below investment grade) may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those
of other securities, including greater credit risk, price
volatility, and limited liquidity in the secondary
market.
A measure
of the fund's
volatility relative to the
market, as represented by the Citigroup World Government
Bond Index.
If much
of the investment into
bond mutual funds that has occurred the last couple
of years is for purposes
of dampening the
volatility of a portfolio — and with the 10 - Year Treasury yield at 1.8 percent it's difficult to argue for a different motivation - then it's important to think through the thesis that
bonds will defend a balanced portfolio in an equity bear
market in the same way they have, especially to the extent they have in the last two bear
markets.
I have underlined several times that while we did see
volatility in the equity
market in Q1» 18, the
bond market was numb to any
market movements; while Treasuries were falling, junk
bonds didn't widen much compared to how they were trading at the beginning
of the year.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index monitors seven
market factors, including stock price momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, put and call options, junk
bond demand,
market volatility and safe haven demand, by calculating how far they have veered from their averages relative to how far they normally veer, on a scale
of 0 to 100, with 0 indicating fear and 100 greed.
Indeed, world currency
markets have roared back to life lately after years
of hibernation, with a handful
of monetary policy surprises — including the European Central Bank (ECB)'s bigger - than - expected
bond buying program and the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s delay in raising rates — leading to rising
volatility, as the chart below shows.
This could lead to stock and
bond market volatility during the second half
of this year that dwarfs what we've witnessed over the past two months.
During 2017,
volatility has been low — in stocks and in
bond markets, even in indicators
of macroeconomic activity.
On the one hand, declining
bond market activity and the persistence
of low - risk arbitrage opportunities imply liquidity is impaired, while, on the other, low
volatility and high demand for risky assets suggest that liquidity is alive and well.
In the days since UK Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed the date
of the referendum,
markets have experienced some
volatility focused on UK - specific assets; spreads for some UK issuers
of euro - denominated
bonds have widened considerably for no apparent reason, which suggests to us that a lot
of Europeans are selling their UK exposure.
All
markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and
bond markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to this afternoon's Commitment
of Traders Report, followed by reports Monday on Chinese PMI, German CPI and Retail Sales, US Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index for near term direction.
The result is a selection
of bonds with higher
volatility, lower credit quality, and higher yield than the broader high - yield
market.
Volatility clustered in February this year after a protracted calm in 2017, roiling global equities, currencies,
bonds and commodity
markets and this led it to remain elevated through the end
of March.
Given group - think and the determination
of policy makers to do «whatever it takes» to prevent the next
market «crash,» we think that the low -
volatility levitation magic act
of stocks and
bonds will exist until the disenchanting moment when it does not.
I'm very wary that the
markets may be starting to question Fed credibility, the expression
of which is downside
volatility in
bond prices.
Bonds were a big beneficiary
of this week's stock
market volatility.
CORPORATE FINANCING NEWS By Gordon Platt Neither the consequent
volatility in emerging
markets nor weak US employment data will deter the Federal Reserve from continuing to gradually reduce its purchases
of bonds, analysts say.
Investors should prepare for more interest - rate
volatility ahead and the possibility
of a
bond -
market overcorrection that could offer investment opportunity.
This is a defensive allocation, as a result
of recent
volatility and negative performance in a variety
of equity, commodity and
bond markets.
Although it might be true that stocks almost always beat
bonds over long periods
of time, striking the right asset allocation balance may allow investors to better manage the emotional response associated with heightened equity
market volatility that often leads to poor investment outcomes.