Sentences with phrase «of bull cycles»

Another historically accurate indicator that predicts the end of bull cycles is household net worth's share of personal disposable income.

Not exact matches

Investment companies undergo these kinds of innovation cycles during every bull market.

Here again, bull markets have tended to carry on a while — even years of fresh record highs — after the bull / ratio peaks for a cycle.

According to it, or at least to some interpretations of it, the bull market cycle almost ended this Friday.

If current levels were to turn out, in hindsight, to be the final lows of this decline, I suspect that the overall return over the next cycle (by the time we do observe a full 20 % loss) will be as tame as we've seen since the bull market started in 2003.

Reinvesting during some of these low cycles of a secular bull market is also a good idea.

The benchmark index SPX, -0.23 % has posted a record close 151 times so far during the latest cyclical bull market, which is about half of the number of all - time highs during the 1990 - 2000 cycle, according to Stovall, who said the high number of all - time highs is not an indication of future disappointments.

So it's important not to assume that just because the uniformity of market internals has improved or deteriorated, the entire cycle has shifted from a bull market to a bear market, or vice versa.

When valuations move from depressed levels to historical extremes over the span of several market cycles, the result is a «secular bull market» and headlines about permanently high plateaus.

Do they not recall that the completion of a market cycle has typically wiped out more than half of the preceding bull market gain?

From the standpoint of the most recent peak - to peak market cycle (i.e. from the 2000 bull market peak to the present), the Strategic Growth Fund has strongly outperformed the major indices with substantially less risk.

While we seek to outperform during all parts of the market cycle, our historical experience suggests that our strategy may lag during broad - based bull markets, such as was seen in 2017.

When there's a bull market or the economy is in the expansion phase of the business cycle, there are plenty of other investments.

Though our investment horizon of interest is a complete market cycle, we don't generally think in terms of bull and bear markets, because they can only be determined in hindsight.

While there's a great deal of variation across individual market cycles, that's roughly the historical average for a 5.25 year market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at less than half of the bull market gain).

The only true test of a money manager's ability is if he can obtain above - average results over a full cycle that includes both bull and bear markets.

First, remember that the typical, run - of - the - mill decline that completes a market cycle also typically wipes out more than half of the preceding bull market advance.

Considering that the stock market has already been rallying for five years since the lows of 2009, it is very possible the bull market has already run its course (every stock market runs in cycles).

We're always open to evidence that would change our analysis of very long - term growth prospects for the U.S. economy, but that evidence evolves slowly enough that we could easily see another complete bull - bear cycle in the interim.

Table 1 shows the years of each bull - bear cycle, the length of the bull and bear phase, and depth of the following bear market.

Bull and bear markets often coincide with the economic cycle, which consists of four phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough.

This instance may be different in the near term, but a century of evidence argues that the completion of the market cycle will wipe out the majority of the gains observed in the advancing portion to - date (even without valuations similar to the present, the average, run - of - the - mill bear market decline has erased more than half of the market gains from the preceding bull market advance).

The chart below graphically shows what the past three bull - bear cycles have looked like, with a projection of the coming bear market.

And so the emotional pressure that pulls stock market prices down to insanely low levels at the end of every bull / bear cycle remains in place today.

We can also state that when a major antitrust action is resolved after a long period of conflict, it is a sign that the social mood trend of at least Cycle degree is likely changing from bear to bull.

For example, we can predict that no major government attacks on corporate success are likely from the time of a stock market bottom of Cycle degree or larger through most of the ensuing bull market.

We think 2018 will add another year to this longer - than - average bull market, but we believe we are moving to the third period of this cycle.

We can state further that when a major antitrust action takes place after a long period of non-action, it is a sign that the social mood trend of at least Cycle degree is likely changing from bull to bear.

Based purely on long - term cycles, a successful argument could be made that we have been in a secular commodity bull market since the turn of the century in 2000.

From the results, we can see that even after 38 years of consistent saving, you'll only have around $ 1,000,000 to $ 5,000,000 in your 401k in a realistic cycle of bull and bear markets.

I created the above chart of IPOs for 1990 - 2016 using Univerisity of Florida's Jay R. Ritter's data, Prof. Ritter uses a tight definition of IPOs which I believe is more helpful for getting a sense of where we are in the current bull cycle by excluding some noise, «follow - on offerings, oil & gas partnerships or unit trusts, ADRs (9 offerings), REITs», etc..

Similarly, I expect that in the event of a general bull market in stocks, the fund will not shine so brightly in terms of relative performance., The math of investing would favour the fund, however, over several bull and bear market cycles because, on a percentage basis, lost dollars are simply harder to replace than gained dollars are to lose.

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In the next post of this series, we will show the actual outperformance of the S&P SmallCap 600 versus the Russell 2000 over the long term, the higher returns and lower risk over different time periods, and through different bull and bear market cycles.

That's fine in the bull phase of the cycle, but it can spell trouble in the bear phase, when cash flow might go negative and skilled claims adjusters are hard to find.

The spread tightening in the bull phase of the cycle is initially relatively rapid, and gives way to smaller bits of incremental tightening, until it is too much, or an exogenous force acts on it.

However, we also believe that market volatility could remain heightened throughout the year due to the increased risk of a trade war with China, uncertainty around the approaching mid-term elections, the potential for increased regulation of large technology companies, and increased investor wariness of market valuations in the midst of the elongated bull market cycle.

Essentially, a secular bull period comprises several cyclical bull - bear cycles, where each bull market achieves a successively higher level of market valuation at its peak.

If this is the beginning of what many consider a long overdue bear market, we believe there is no better strategy than the DRS across a full market cycle, both bull and bear.

But by having a better understanding of the bull - bear cycle and taking a few minutes to prepare your portfolio ahead of time, you'll likely come through the bear in better shape and be ready to capitalize on the ensuing bull.

Historically, that puts the typical bull market gain at about 152 % from trough - to - peak, followed by a bear market decline about 34 % from peak - to - trough, for a cumulative full - cycle total return of about 67 % (roughly 10.7 % annualized).

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Secular bear markets also involve a series of bull - bear cycle, but with each bear market trough achieving successively lower levels of valuation.

Bull and bear markets often coincide with the economic cycle, which consists of four phases: expansion, peak, contraction and trough.

An average bear market within a «secular» bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate bull - bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 % of the preceding bull market advance.

That said, it still captured 85 % of the S&P 500 return over that period and 76 % during the Cycle 2 bull market from October 1974 through August 1987.

Historically this particular bull - bear cycle lasts about 4 years, with 25 % (or 1 year) of that time spent in active bear conditions.

The examples above highlight this strategy by demonstrating the potential of these accounts during bull markets and the security they provide during bear cycles.

What these type of strategies general out perform is over an entire bull bear market cycle.

As I mentioned earlier, the median price - earnings ratios (P / E) and price - sales ratios (P / S) actually surmounted the peaks at the end of the last two bull market cycles — the metrics went beyond the valuation peaks hit in 2000 and in 2007.