Overall, we think global growth, fiscal policy and organically derived forms of liquidity will likely more than offset the slow pace
of central bank tightening this year.
One is inflows from retail investors who, spooked by the prospect
of central bank tightening, have shifted into an asset class where they traditionally represent just 10 % or so of available capital.
Not exact matches
Seen as one
of the most important members
of the Fed's rate - setting committee, Dudley said the
central bank was in no rush to
tighten monetary policy.
Yellen turned the question around: «When you say that
central banks kill them, the usual reason that that has been true, when that has been true, is that
central banks have been too late to
tighten policy and they have allowed inflation to get out
of control and at that point they have had to
tighten policy very abruptly and very substantially and it's caused a downturn.»
«In light
of the
central bank depending on the exchange rate to
tighten monetary conditions, which is not happening, it will be interesting the position on the crown the
bank will take now,» Czech
bank CSOB analysts said in a note.
After weakening at the start
of 2018, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields have helped the dollar stage a recovery in the past fortnight at the same time as doubts grow about when the European
Central Bank (ECB) will
tighten monetary policy.
Over the past several months, debt traders have been growing increasingly wary
of this type
of monetary
tightening by global
central banks, which have been the biggest buyers
of bonds for years.
Analysts said the use
of the word «symmetric» suggests that the Fed may allow inflation to run above its 2 percent target, a stance that would limit the need for the
central bank to embark on a more aggressive path
of monetary
tightening in response to recent rises in inflation.
The question lingering on investors» minds is how many rate increases the
central bank intends to implement until the end
of the
tightening cycle, and if it was willing to raise rates above it its so - called neutral rate.
«Unless quite substantial
tightening of monetary policy is delivered, the lira will remain volatile,» Rabobank's Matys said, adding the
central bank may have to consider an emergency policy meeting beforehand, as was the case in January 2014.
On the other side, there were enough positive indicators to keep a September
tightening in play, even as Wall Street looks more seriously at the possibility
of a Fed move in October or at the
central bank's last meeting
of the year, in December.
The members
of the
central bank apparently think the recent slowdown in price growth is transitory, and that at some point, price pressures will reflect the
tightening of the job market.
European
Central Bank plans to
tighten up non-performing loan rules could be rolled back due to fears
of a fire sale.
There could be several factors that had investors on edge — including news that North Korea had completed a fifth nuclear missile test and the European
Central Bank had declined to announce additional measures to help stimulate Europe's sluggish economy — but many strategists pointed to a speech Friday morning by Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren, in which he said that «a reasonable case can be made» for
tightening interest rates in the U.S..
The risk
of volatility spikes and liquidity shortages is rising, and it could get worse with new «quantitative
tightening» policies from
central banks.
So it should worry more than Wall Street traders trying to guess the exact date
of the
central bank's first
tightening move.
But the danger
of a
central bank willing to
tighten economic conditions as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades has helped push down long - dated yields, while lifting short - dated yields.
The timing
of Bernanke's easing raises the stakes for the Fed's four remaining policy meetings this year as investors focus on whether the
central bank will provide stimulus for 2013 to help the economy overcome the impact
of the fiscal
tightening due to take hold in January, said Vincent Reinhart, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.
The pace
of rate increases has picked up since the
central bank began its
tightening cycle in December 2015.
Rising U.S. debt supply and the pace
of the U.S. Federal Reserve's
tightening, the possibility the European
Central Bank's quantitative easing program is heading towards the finish line, and concerns about the credit quality
of riskier asset classes restrained investors.
Twelve
of the 19 analysts polled by Reuters predicted the
central bank would
tighten its exchange - rate based policy.
Unlike the Federal Reserve, most
of the major
central banks in the world will be easing rather than
tightening monetary conditions in 2015.
Indeed, as expectations for economic growth have been scaled back somewhat in both regions over the past three months, markets have pushed back their expectation
of the timing
of the first
tightening by both
central banks.
The U.S. Office
of the Comptroller
of the Currency said
banks relaxed the criteria for businesses and consumers to obtain credit during the 18 months leading up to June 30, 2013, while the European
Central Bank said fewer
banks in the euro zone were reporting
tightened lending standards to nonfinancial businesses in the fourth quarter
of 2013.
While mortgage lenders have
tightened their wallets since 2008, corporations have been borrowing with abandon, abetted by trillions
of dollars in
central bank liquidity and investors searching for yield they can no longer find in government bonds or money markets.
Implied volatilities gradually declined around the world in the second half
of 2003, as it became clearer that the easing cycle was drawing to a close, with some
central banks beginning to
tighten monetary policy after a prolonged period
of relatively low and stable interest rates.
«The markets have, for a while, suspected the BoE might be the first
of these
central banks to
tighten,» Lewis said.
We see
central banks nearing the limits
of extraordinary monetary easing, low returns across most asset classes as well as higher equity and bond volatility amid looming political risks and Federal Reserve (Fed)
tightening.
Without policy accommodation (and the Federal Reserve, People's
Bank of China, the European
Central Bank are steadily
tightening policy), a bifurcated economy has a fraction
of «old normal» risk tolerance and asset price resiliency.
The longer it takes for expansionary fiscal policies to emerge, the more likely for financial conditions to ease as investors pare expectations
of near - term policy
tightening due to limited risk tolerance amid
central bank inaction.
Nevertheless, the apparent success
of the ECB's policy in overcoming the threat
of deflation increased speculation about a potential
tightening of monetary policy, possibly even before the cessation
of the
central bank's bond purchases — scheduled to continue for at least the rest
of the year — and in the wake
of the ECB meeting pushed market estimates
of the odds
of a rise in official interest rates before the end
of 2017 to more than 50 %.
In terms, I think
of inflation and bond markets, it took six, seven, eight, maybe 10 years
of high inflation in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American monetary policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant
tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind
of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the
central bank radically to change their policy.
If this would've happened if they were a significant and fast fall in asset values
of asset pricing, could there be a reverse in course by
central banks from
tightening back to quantitative easing?
A
tightening labor market has often been cited by the
central bank as an important source
of inflationary pressure.
But we do not believe the ECB will contemplate a major change in direction, since in the continued absence
of a significant fiscal stimulus, the region's economic performance remains too weak for the
central bank to risk measures that could create, however inadvertently, a degree
of tightening in monetary policy.
For example, while the United States is
tightening its monetary policy, the
central banks of Europe and Japan both have launched aggressive stimulus measures since 2014 to jumpstart economic growth.
In response to the threat from inflation, which in August
of this year reached a 16 - year high, Mexico's
central bank sharply
tightened monetary policy, increasing interest rates at seven consecutive meetings up to June.
With the Fed
tightening monetary policy and our economy improving — and with the economies
of European and other developed nations still struggling to generate growth, and with their
central banks still pursuing very easy monetary policies — the dollar would strengthen.
But this year a combination
of an IMF bailout programme, a US$ 1.8 billion cocoa syndicated loan, a US$ 750 million Eurobond and the
central bank's
tightening of the monetary policy has led to the cedi recording one
of its best performances in recent years.
Phase 4: Stagflation phase: GDP growth slows but inflation remains high (side note: most bear markets are preceded by a 100 % + increase in the price
of oil which drives inflation up and causes
central banks to
tighten).
Until recently, all
of the major
central banks of the world were
tightening, all at once.
The Swiss
Central Bank continues to
tighten, while the
Bank of England effectively loosens, because
of the recent panic there, involving Northern Rock.
Europe is just starting to stabilize and Mario Draghi will certainly continue to support the
banking system throughout Europe and is clearly aware
of the continental unemployment problem, the European
Central Bank is nowhere near
tightening and the
Bank of Japan is still easing.
On average, investors have experienced negative returns during periods when a growing number
of central banks are
tightening policy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slid about 3.5 per cent this week as President Donald Trump invited a trade war and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fuelled speculation the
central bank plans to quicken the pace
of monetary
tightening.
Although bond yields have already started to rise in recent months in anticipation
of a reduction
of monetary stimulus in the US, we expect future increases to be moderate in the face
of what is likely to be a gradual pace
of policy
tightening by both the US and Canadian
central banks.
But the recent rise in mortgage defaults and the
tightening of credit have raised expectations on Wall Street that the
central bank had to cut interest rates to help protect the economy and to keep financial markets stable.
While the
central bank insists that private domestic demand will account for most, if not all
of Canada's growth over the next couple
of years, experts remain confident that any
tightening here at home will be gradual and cautious.
My view is that the next major blow - up will happen as a result
of a neophyte developing large country
central bank overshooting on their
tightening of monetary policy.
This means that as the
central bank undergoes a
tightening cycle, it could be beneficial to trade interest rate risk for credit risk, if one believes in the continuing strength
of an economy.