There have been several studies by solar scientists on temperature impact
of changes in solar activity, going back to pre-industrial periods of very low solar activity and colder than normal temperatures (Dalton and Maunder minima).
It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C. consensus statement, that the warming before 1956 could be because
of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial part of the more recent warming could be natural.
Not exact matches
Peaks
in solar activity cause the city to flood more often, apparently by
changing the paths
of storms over Europe.
A
change in solar activity may also, for example, have contributed to the post Little Ice Age rise
in global temperatures
in the first half
of the 20th Century.
Now Muller says Berkeley Earth's new results «are stronger than those
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change,» because they found
solar activity had a «negligible» role
in warming observed since the 1750s.
Changes in the number of cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere due to changes in solar activity can not explain global warming, as average cosmic ray intensities have been increasing since 1985 even as the world has warmed — the opposite of what should happen if cosmic rays produce climate - cooling
Changes in the number
of cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere due to
changes in solar activity can not explain global warming, as average cosmic ray intensities have been increasing since 1985 even as the world has warmed — the opposite of what should happen if cosmic rays produce climate - cooling
changes in solar activity can not explain global warming, as average cosmic ray intensities have been increasing since 1985 even as the world has warmed — the opposite
of what should happen if cosmic rays produce climate - cooling clouds.
So when the number
of particles coming from the sun
changes — usually as a result
of its 11 - year
activity cycle — it takes years before that's reflected
in the amount
of neutral atoms shooting back into the
solar system.
Their findings indicated that, overall, the contribution
of changing solar activity, either directly or through cosmic rays, was even less and can not have contributed more than 10 percent to global warming
in the 20th century.
«We conclude that the level
of contribution
of changing solar activity is less than 10 percent
of the measured global warming observed
in the 20th century.
«It is true that there are other factors (such as volcanism, the
changes in the orbit and the axis
of the Earth, the
solar cycle), but numerous scientific studies indicate that most
of the global warming
in recent decades is due to the large concentration
of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide and others) mainly emitted due to human
activity.»
«The task,» Millikan wrote, «
of learning to substitute stored
solar energy for muscular energy — the great underlying cause
of most
of the
changes in man's
activities and living conditions — has been learned within the past eighty years and will never need to be learned over again.»
This conclusion is,
in retrospect, not too surprising; we've learned from satellite measurements that
solar activity changes the brightness
of the sun very little.
After all, the implied
changes in GCR flux are huge compared to what is expected from the gentle modulation
of the Earth's magnetic field arising from recent
solar activity changes (not that there's any trend
in those that would explain recent warming).
The main factors include
solar variability, volcanic
activity, atmospheric composition, the amount
of sunlight reflected back into space, ocean currents and
changes in the Earth's orbit.
Investigating the cause
of 20th Century warming is properly done
in detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g.,
solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic
activity) and the observed time and space patterns
of climate
change in detail.
New data have more accurately quantifi ed
changes in solar spectral fl uxes over a broad range
of wavelengths
in association with
changing solar activity.
Periods
of volcanism can cool the climate (as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological
activity can warm the climate, and slight
changes in solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter
in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years
in duration (the Younger Dryas).
And Perdue's not the only leading recipient
of Southern's political support to help spread the questionable scientific talking points the utility has paid for: Rep. Gary Palmer, an Alabama Republican who received $ 18,000 from the company's PAC and employees
in the 2014 cycle, last year told WATE that science «says global climate
change is more a function
of nature and
solar activity than it is anything man does.»
The first collection
of papers establishes that (a) decadal and multi-decadal ocean circulation patterns (AMO, PDO, NAO, ENSO) have significantly modulated precipitation and temperature
changes in recent decades, and the second collection
of papers confirm that (b) natural ocean oscillations are,
in turn, modulated by
solar activity.
Scientists have modelled the expected temperature drop over the 21st century due to waning
solar activity — and they found that the
change is likely to be dwarfed by the much bigger warming effect
of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
Changes in the density
of the upper atmosphere caused by dust storms and
solar activity make each TGO close approach unpredictable.
Solar cycle length is a useful indicator of long term changes in solar acti
Solar cycle length is a useful indicator
of long term
changes in solar acti
solar activity.
«If we figure out how much atmosphere is removed by
changes in solar activity, we can extrapolate back to estimate what the isotope ratios should have been billions
of years ago.
The number
of sunspots varies as
solar magnetic
activity does — the
change in this number, from a minimum
of none to a maximum
of roughly 250 sunspots or clusters
of sunspots and then back to a minimum, is known as the
solar cycle, and averages about 11 years long.
Investigating the cause
of 20th Century warming is properly done
in detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g.,
solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic
activity) and the observed time and space patterns
of climate
change in detail.
If I'm correct
in saying that the bulk
of that increase was up to the late 90s, and * should * have been by the mid-90s or even earlier, then this leaves a tiny bit more room for
changes in solar forcing — since it's only after the
solar max
of the early 90s that the trend
in solar activity from 1940 took a dive http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Temp-sunspot-co2.svg#file.
There are a large number
of recent peer - reviewed scientific publications demonstrating how
solar activity can affect our climate (Benestad, 2002), such as how
changes in the UV radiation following the
solar activity affect the stratospheric ozone concentrations (1999) and how earth's temperatures respond to
changes in the total
solar irradiance (Meehl, 2003).
Dr. Sami Solanki — director and scientific member at the Max Planck Institute for
Solar System Research
in Germany, who argues that
changes in the Sun's state, not human
activity, may be the principal cause
of global warming: «The sun has been at its strongest over the past 60 years and may now be affecting global temperatures.»
Thanks for publishing this, there are folks who denigrated the work
of scientists that claimed a
solar - climate (temperature) link because the variability
in solar energy output just wasn't enough to explain the temperature swings, and perhaps they now realize that there could be another mechanism - similar to a transistor where small
changes in gate voltage can affect large
changes in power transmission - whereby
solar activity can create significant effects on temperature.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the past 150 years (e.g., variability
of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for
solar activity induced
changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part
of the global warming experienced during the 20th century, with the possible exception
of the last two decades.
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview
of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and
solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2
changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but
in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control
of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global mean temperature
in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid
of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
The paper he wrote together with Friis - Christensen
in which he found a correlation between
solar activity and clouds had a «slight» flaw: it ignored that the period
of the study coincided with a big El Nino, and that large scale
changes in ocean surface temperature are going to have an effect on cloud formation.
Investigating the cause
of 20th Century warming is done
in so - called detection and attribution studies, which analyze the various forcings (e.g.,
solar variations, greenhouse gases or volcanic
activity) and the observed time and space patterns
of climate
change in detail.
One key metric
in this debate is the spatial pattern
of cooling which may provide a «fingerprint»
of the underlying climate
change, whether that was externally forced (from
solar or volcanic
activity) or was part
of an intrinsic mode
of variability.
If there was more natural variation
in the past millenia, specifically due to
solar changes, then that goes at the cost of the GHG / aerosol combination, as both are near impossible to distinguish from each other in the warming of the last halve century... Solar activity has never been as high, and for an as long period, as current in the past millenium (and even the past 8,000 ye
solar changes, then that goes at the cost
of the GHG / aerosol combination, as both are near impossible to distinguish from each other
in the warming
of the last halve century...
Solar activity has never been as high, and for an as long period, as current in the past millenium (and even the past 8,000 ye
Solar activity has never been as high, and for an as long period, as current
in the past millenium (and even the past 8,000 years).
If that holds (directly or indirectly) for longer term
changes (
in this case continuous higher levels)
of solar activity remains to be proven.
This problem is illustrated by two alternative reconstructions
of past
changes in solar activity based on ice core 10Be records.
New data have more accurately quantifi ed
changes in solar spectral fl uxes over a broad range
of wavelengths
in association with
changing solar activity.
A more reasonable natural variability / forcing argument might go something like this: 1) There is natural variability
of climate due to
solar activity 2) Climate is
changing now 3) Forcing can result
in climate
change, but the response
of the C cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or
solar activity could be to blame for current warming trends Is this unreasonable?
Veizer's alternative hypothesis for 20th century global warming does appear to be: the warming was caused by a «celestial driver» (i.e., a
change in solar activity — despite the lack
of observed trend), and it is this warming which has increased the CO2 concentration, not the other way round.
Though it still considered very controversial, evidence is emerging that regime
changes in the Pacific ocean (the last
of which was
in 1977) may be caused by small variations
in the rotation rate
of the Earth that are forced by
changes in the level
of solar activity.
a) atmospheric CO2 from human
activity is a major bause
of observed warming
in the 1980's and 1990's, c) that warming is overstated due to a number
of factors including
solar effects and measurement skew d) the data going back 150 years is
of little reliability because it is clustered so heavily
in northeast america and western europe rather than being global e) the global climate has been significantly shifting over the last thousand years, over the last ten thousand years, and over the last hundred thousand years; atmospheric CO2 levels did not drive those
changes, and some
of them were rapid.
It is true that there are other factors (such as volcanism, the
changes in the orbit and the axis
of the Earth, the
solar cycle), but numerous scientific studies indicate that most
of the global warming
in recent decades it is due to the large concentration
of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide and others) mainly emitted due to human
activity.
Scientists quoted
in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced
solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver
of climate
change than man - made greenhouse gases.
(3) Subordinate to
solar activity alone, atmospheric water vapor / cloud formation and movement is the largest known variable that influences temperature
changes in the atmosphere
of the earth, and the earth's oceans.
In particular, the authors find fault with IPCC's conclusions relating to human activities being the primary cause of recent global warming, claiming, contrary to significant evidence that they tend to ignore, that the comparatively small influences of natural changes in solar radiation are dominating the influences of the much larger effects of changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the global energy balanc
In particular, the authors find fault with IPCC's conclusions relating to human
activities being the primary cause
of recent global warming, claiming, contrary to significant evidence that they tend to ignore, that the comparatively small influences
of natural
changes in solar radiation are dominating the influences of the much larger effects of changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the global energy balanc
in solar radiation are dominating the influences
of the much larger effects
of changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the global energy balanc
in the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the global energy balance.
All evidence suggests that significant climate
changes like the LIA, and the Medieval Warm Period that preceded it, are the result
of significant
changes in solar activity.
When we do, no matter how good the climate model is it will not be able to overcome deficiencies
in our ability to predict the things that affect climate —
solar activity, ocean cycles, etc — and it will not be able to overcome deficiencies
in our understanding
of how things that affect climate actually work —
solar activity, Earth orbital
changes, etc..
The red line incorporates natural influences like
changes in solar output and volcanic
activity but virtually all
of the long - term warming is attributable to human - caused increases
in greenhouse gasses.
Another major climate oscillation around 7500 — 7000 cal BP may have resulted from combined effects
of a strong rate
of change in insolation and
of variations
in solar activity.»