Sentences with phrase «of changes in solar output»

Either TSI is not the best measure of changes in solar output or historical changes in TSI were not properly reconstructed (LeMouel and Shapiro) or possibly there is some kind of solar amplification at work which just means Earth's climate is hypersensitive to changes in TSI.

Not exact matches

When scientists use climate models for attribution studies, they first run simulations with estimates of only «natural» climate influences over the past 100 years, such as changes in solar output and major volcanic eruptions.

For example, the ice ages during the last several million years — and the warmer periods in between — appear to have been triggered by no more than a different seasonal and latitudinal distribution of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth, not by a change in output from the sun.

In other words, whereas the new satellite measurements call into question computer models of solar output, it does not change the fundamental physics of human - induced global warming.

In a recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that as much as 25 - 35 % of the global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpuIn a recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that as much as 25 - 35 % of the global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpuin Geophysical Research Letters, Scafetta & West (S&W) estimate that as much as 25 - 35 % of the global warming in the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpuin the 1980 - 2000 period can be attributed changes in the solar outpuin the solar output.

Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can warm the climate, and slight changes in solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter in duration than the ice age cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years in duration (the Younger Dryas).

However, there is significant debate as to the cause of these D - O events, with changes in solar output being just one possibility (NOAA Paleoclimatology).

The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition (the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles (and possibly the Sun's orbit around the galaxy); the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which could affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth - Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.

In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblIn addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblin partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.

Thanks for publishing this, there are folks who denigrated the work of scientists that claimed a solar - climate (temperature) link because the variability in solar energy output just wasn't enough to explain the temperature swings, and perhaps they now realize that there could be another mechanism - similar to a transistor where small changes in gate voltage can affect large changes in power transmission - whereby solar activity can create significant effects on temperature.

> Some of the «wiggles» in temperature (such as the Little Ice Age signal) correlate with changes in solar output.

We need knowledge based on evidence and not guesswork of how much warming is caused by carbon dioxide, versus solar output and other factors, and of how much climate change we could produce by controlling carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Funny thing is, the energy involved in these solar changes is a really, really small fraction of the total solar output.

Changes in weather patterns, the eruption of volcanos, changes in ultraviolet output of the sun linked to the 10 - 11 year solar cycle and other natural phenomena can, like CFCs, inhibit the production of ozone.Changes in weather patterns, the eruption of volcanos, changes in ultraviolet output of the sun linked to the 10 - 11 year solar cycle and other natural phenomena can, like CFCs, inhibit the production of ozone.changes in ultraviolet output of the sun linked to the 10 - 11 year solar cycle and other natural phenomena can, like CFCs, inhibit the production of ozone.»

The RealClimate post on Polar Amplification... http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/polar-amplification/... begins with the statement, «' Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe in response to a change in global climate forcing, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).»

We can only be sure that we are right if someone can explain how such a large influence on the atmosphere can be produced by comparatively small changes in the energy output of the Sun during the solar cycle.

The red line incorporates natural influences like changes in solar output and volcanic activity but virtually all of the long - term warming is attributable to human - caused increases in greenhouse gasses.

While changes in solar output have slightly increased global average temperature since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the planet - warming effect of man - made greenhouse gases is about 20 times larger -LRB-

The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.

I have sought the best empirical evidence to show how changes in incoming solar radiation, accounted for by intrinsic solar magnetic modulation of the irradiance output as well as planetary modulation of the seasonal distribution of sunlight, affects the thermal properties of land and sea, including temperatures.

Appreciable changes in climate are the result of changes in the energy balance of the Earth, which requires «external» forcings, such as changes in solar output, albedo, and atmospheric greenhouse gases.

How about this one, ««Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe in response to a change in global climate forcing, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).

The cause could be any short or long term change in a number of things solar output, ocean heat release, planetary albedo, vapor, whatever.

«Since irradiance variations are apparently minimal, changes in the Earth's climate that seem to be associated with changes in the level of solar activity — the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice age for example — would then seem to be due to terrestrial responses to more subtle changes in the Sun's spectrum of radiative output.

The interior of the sun is turbulent flow modulating the small changes in solar output.

Time - of - use (TOU) rates, even without net energy metering, could change the value proposition in places like California and Texas because solar output is «so in line with peak pricing, especially during those late afternoon summer hours,» he said.

They concluded that with a bit of help from changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the growth in the volume of aerosols being pumped up power station chimneys was probably enough to block the warming effect of rising greenhouse gas emissions over the period 1998 - 2008.

They concluded that with a bit of help from changes in solar output and natural climatic cycles such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO),..

Uncertainty in natural climate drivers, for example how much solar output will change over this century, also affects the accuracy of projections.

The temporal lag is needed to account for the large mass of Neptune that would require years to adjust to any changes in solar output.

The former is the result of internal variability and radiative forcing (solar output and volcanic activity) rather than long - term changes in Earth's orbital geometry.

The average change in solar output from the trough to the peak of the cycle is tiny — about 1 W / m ² in a total output of nearly 1400 W / m ² (at Earth orbit).

The IPCC reports document the plausible intrinsic solar output increase of perhaps 0.12 W / m2 since 1750 as being the only significant natural agency in terms of climate change: if my calculations of the natural changing insolation values are correct, then the IPCC is demonstrated to have erred in that respect.

Note that the only natural change admitted to the 2013/14 IPCC report is an intrinsic variation in intrinsic solar output of order 0.1 W / m2.

While I wouldn't think that many people here would be so obtuse as to exclude solar output in any climate equation, I would make note of the point that variances of solar output are rarely discussed in «warmer» circles in relation to «Climate Change».

There is a solid body of research now showing that any apparent slow - down of warming during the past decade was likely due to natural short - term factors (like small changes in solar output and volcanic activity) and internal fluctuations related to e.g. the El Niño phenomenon.

«Climate models used historic data for factors like greenhouse gas concentrations, solar output, volcanic eruptions, air pollution, and other factors that can affect the climate through 2005 or so, but after that point made assumptions of how these would change in the future.

The only thing that I would contend could be added would be long slow cumulative changes in solar output other than raw TSI namely changes in the mix of particles and wavelengths over longer periods of time such as MWP to LIA to date and which seem to have some effect on surface pressure distribution and global albedo so as to alter solar shortwave into the oceans and thus affecting the energy available to the ENSO process.

The answer is yes, 3.7 W / m2 is equivalent to a 1 % increase in solar output, which is larger than any known solar changes in the last millennium by a factor of about five (including the estimates for the Maunder Minimum).

Nothing in recorded history suggests solar energy output will change drastically enough in the foreseeable future to overwhelm the impact humanity's massive input of greenhouse gases is having on our world.

As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.

Any change in net solar power output is relatively small as Leif says and being a seperate issue apparently incapable of explaining observed variability in the climate system.

I have previously described why the solar effect on climate is not as generally thought but for convenience I will summarise the issue here because it will help readers to follow the logic of the NCM.Variations in total solar power output on timescales relevant to human existence are tiny and are generally countered by a miniscule change in the speed of the hydrological cycle as described above.

Other than say a change in solar output, or the Solary System moving from clear to dusty space (as I think is expected in a few millenia) what else do we know of in nature that happens as fast and persists as long as the rate of increase of anthropogenic GH gases?

Changes in solar output influence how much of the sun's energy the Earth's surface receives as a whole; more or less solar energy means warmer or cooler global climate.

People have thought for a long time that a major natural source of climate change are variations in solar output.

While the Earth's atmosphere has seen higher levels of carbon dioxide than it does now, as well as higher temperatures and far greater sea levels, those instances were due to natural drivers of climate change, such as periodic variations in the planet's orbit and in solar energy output.

«Polar amplification» usually refers to greater climate change near the pole compared to the rest of the hemisphere or globe in response to a change in global climate forcing, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or solar output (see e.g. Moritz et al 2002).

Looking at the last decade, it is clear that the observed rate of change of upper ocean heat content is a little slower than previously (and below linear extrapolations of the pre-2003 model output), and it remains unclear to what extent that is related to a reduction in net radiative forcing growth (due to the solar cycle, or perhaps larger than expected aerosol forcing growth), or internal variability, model errors, or data processing — arguments have been made for all four, singly and together.