Further adding to the divide within the climate science community is the fact that many of the climate models that Trenberth and others often use do not show the sorts
of changes in the jet stream that the new study and others like it have pointed to, including the more frequently stagnated or «blocked» weather patterns that Francis cited.
Not exact matches
The study by the Planetary Sciences Group reports that this gigantic storm is another
of the agents
of change in the equatorial
jet stream.
They compared those events with
changes in the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) index, a collection
of climate and weather information that measures atmospheric angular momentum, or the degree
of waviness
in the
jet stream.
The strength and path
of the North Atlantic
jet stream and the Greenland blocking phenomena appear to be influenced by increasing temperatures
in the Arctic which have averaged at least twice the global warming rate over the past two decades, suggesting that those marked
changes may be a key factor affecting extreme weather conditions over the UK, although an Arctic connection may not occur each year.
The research is the first reconstruction
of historical
changes in the North Atlantic
jet stream prior to the 20th century.
«The
jet stream changes character every 10 to 12 days, and we use this pattern to predict the weather,» said Anthony Lupo, professor
of atmospheric science
in MU's School
of Natural Resources, which is located
in the College
of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.
«Weather should remain predictable despite climate
change: Simulations
of jet stream behavior
in a warming climate suggest ranges
of forecasts
in the mid-century will be similar to those
in present day.»
It's called the polar
jet stream, and as it writhes eastward across the North American continent, it can bring storms
in its wake or herald an unseasonable
change in temperature — north
of the
jet stream lies cold, Arctic air, while to its south are warmer conditions.
But Robeson said the observation aligns with theories about climate
change, which hold that amplified warming
in the Arctic region produces
changes in the
jet stream, which can result
in extended periods
of cold weather at some locations
in the mid-northern latitudes.
Widening
of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement
of major extratropical climate zones due to
changes in the position
of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position
of high and low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes.
The ongoing disappearance
of sea ice
in the Arctic from elevated temperatures is a factor to
changes in atmospheric pressure that control
jet streams of air, explained James Overland, an oceanographer
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
Dr Screen said: «The results
of the computer model suggest that melting Arctic sea ice causes a
change in the position
of the
jet stream and this could help to explain the recent wet summers we have seen.
Importantly, the NAO relates to
changes in the strength and position
of the North Atlantic
jet stream - a band
of very fast winds high
in the atmosphere.
Those
changes may include the loss
of Arctic summer sea ice, the collapse
of ice sheets
in Greenland and western Antarctica, dieback
of the Amazon rainforest and
changes in the
jet stream and the pattern
of El Niño and La Niña weather cycles.
There are other influences on the
jet stream's behavior, and some scientists think that
changes in tropical ocean temperatures, or the cyclical recurrence
of El Niño, might have a bigger effect on the
jet stream than
changes in the Arctic.
Research into three centuries
of European tree ring data by Valerie Trouet
of the University
of Arizona found evidence
of significant
changes in the
jet stream starting
in the 1960s.
Scientists want to understand how
changing the dynamics
of the
jet stream in models can
change how the model predicts the timing and location
of these extreme phenomena.
And those
changes in the Hadley Circulation can affect the subtropical
jet stream — an area
of fast - moving air that guides storms —
in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres.
In Liquidity inc., Steyerl makes one of her characteristic intellectual leaps and connects extreme financial events to extreme climate events: the jet stream of money changes direction when the Dow Jones collapses, then suddenly a gonzo weather forecaster, masked in black, is gesturing across the most political of politically geographical maps you ever saw — noting failed states and off - shore tax havens, isobars indicating flows of capital rather than weather front
In Liquidity inc., Steyerl makes one
of her characteristic intellectual leaps and connects extreme financial events to extreme climate events: the
jet stream of money
changes direction when the Dow Jones collapses, then suddenly a gonzo weather forecaster, masked
in black, is gesturing across the most political of politically geographical maps you ever saw — noting failed states and off - shore tax havens, isobars indicating flows of capital rather than weather front
in black, is gesturing across the most political
of politically geographical maps you ever saw — noting failed states and off - shore tax havens, isobars indicating flows
of capital rather than weather fronts.
The Paramagnetic Oxygen Transport Thesis explains the failure
of Brewer - Dobson equatorial ozone formation, the Ozone Hole
in 1983, continued Antarctic cold temps concurrent with Arctic warming, mid-latitude ozone formation which accelerates
jet streams and elongates Rossby wave loops, and wandering magnetic poles which control extreme weather and climate
change.
One minute
change in the atmospheric regime can slowly effect further
changes in the system and the chain reaction can occur, which,
in the end, could shift a
jet stream a few kilometres and create conditions possible for storm intensification, which may result
in the flooding
of an area where the storm would not have been or would have been greatly minimised.
Or it may be caused by any other mechanism (like the influence
of solar
changes on the
jet stream position) which enhance the simple direct insolation
change which is incorporated
in several current climate models...
The second aspect
of climate
change that is likely affecting Alaska more and more is the apparent tendency
of warming
in the Arctic and warmer sea surface temperatures
in the Pacific to contribute to larger waves
in the
jet stream.
The
jet stream off the East Coast
of the United States controls an important climate pattern
in the Atlantic... «The North Atlantic Oscillation is really driving these
changes in ocean circulation,» said Gerald McCarthy, lead study author and an oceanographer at the University
of Southampton
in the United Kingdom....
The latest en vogue explanation linking human greenhouse gas emissions to strong winter - season East Coast storms involves
changes in the characteristics
of the
jet stream — a river
of fast moving air
in the atmosphere that influences both the strength and the forward speed
of extratropical storm systems.
One was published several months ago
in Geophysical Research Letters by James Screen and Ian Simmonds, who looked for
changes in jet stream characteristics using a different methodology than that
of Francis and Vavrus.
A prominent (
in the media, anyway) research study last year by Rutgers's Jennifer Francis and University
of Wisconsin's Stephen Vavrus suggests that the declining temperature difference between the Arctic and the lower latitudes (adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere warms colder, drier regions more so than warmer, wetter ones — with the notable exception
of Antarctica) has led to
changes in the
jet stream which result
in slower moving, and potentially stronger East Coast winter storm systems.
«If loss
of sea ice is driving
changes in the
jet stream, the
jet stream is
changing Greenland, and this,
in turn, has an impact on the Arctic system as well as the climate.
I think there is evidence that AGW has caused the decline
in arctic sea ice, which may be responsible for the
changes seen
in the paths
of the
jet stream, which may be responsible for the blocking high over Greenland which was responsible for Sandy's left turn.
Although the theory is still being explored, teleconnections are thought to link land use to
changes in the polar
jet stream, the paths
of tropical cyclones, and the frequencies and intensities
of droughts, floods, heat waves, and other weather events.
According to climate scientist Michael Mann, it's very possible that several
of the recent severe and costly extreme weather outbreaks are linked to
changes in the
jet stream he identified
in a recent study.
You say that there is evidence that AGW has caused the decline
in arctic sea ice, which may be responsible for the
changes seen
in the paths
of the
jet stream, which may be responsible for the blocking high over Greenland which was responsible for Sandy's left turn.
And science is emerging suggesting a link between the melting
of Arctic sea ice on one hand and faster warming
in the region and
changes to the northern hemisphere
jet stream on the other, explaining why some weather systems appear to get «stuck
in place» — to often - devastating effect.
Francis, who wasn't involved with either study, is one
of the main proponents
of an idea that by altering how much heat the ocean lets out, sea ice melt and Arctic warming can also
change atmospheric circulation patterns,
in particular by making the
jet stream form larger peaks, or highs, and troughs, or lows.
There have been many primarily anthropogenic
changes in the past, but the major
jet stream changes caused by the retreat
of the North American Ice Shield seems to be much more determinative for Holocene
changes in Saharan rainfall.
So
jet stream positioning and consequent
changes in solar input to the oceans could swing the ENSO phenomenon
in favour
of dominant El Nino or dominant La Nina subject additionally to possible modulation from internal oceanic effects.
The reason for the
change in the shape and positions
of atmospheric
jet streams is, for now, an issue
of debate, with AA as one
of the potential candidates (see, e.g., refs.
The advantage
of recognising a reversed sign for the solar effect high up
in the atmosphere is that it enables a scenario whereby the bottom up effects
of ocean cycles and the top down effects
of solar variability can be seen to be engaged
in a complex ever
changing dance with the primary climate response being
changes in the tropospheric air circulation systems to give us the observed natural climate variability via cyclical latitudinal shifts
in all the air circulation systems and notably the
jet streams.
As I describe
in that article the weather systems on Earth (primarily the
jet streams and the high pressure cells either side
of them) ramp up their thermal efficiency
in tune with the scale
of any positive or negative energy input
changes from any source including that from human CO2.
Southern California has gotten quite bit
of weather lately, thanks to the
changes in the
jet stream track
in this El Niño year.
While the causes
of the PDO are still unknown, the primary effects seem to be
changes in northeast Pacific marine ecosystems and a
changing jet stream path.
«
Changes in the position
of the
jet stream are very noisy, and can be hard to detect even
in climate simulations,» Amy Butler, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA, told BuzzFeed News.
The previous suggested reason was that climate
change was shifting storms and the powerful air currents known as the
jet streams — including the one that traverses the United States — toward the poles, which
in turn were driving the movement
of the clouds.
Indeed on the basis
of my previous article about weather being the key it may be possible to get even earlier warning
of changes in global temperature trend from observation
of the preferred positions
of the
jet streams and the main high pressure systems.
-- The record melt
of the Greenland ice sheet was facilitated by
changes in the
jet stream... — http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112875668/jet-stream-caused-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-2012-061713/ «According to University of Sheffield research, published in the International Journal of Climatology, unusual Jet Stream changes were behind record surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet last summer.&raq
jet stream... — http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1112875668/
jet-stream-caused-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-2012-061713/ «According to University of Sheffield research, published in the International Journal of Climatology, unusual Jet Stream changes were behind record surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet last summer.&raq
jet-
stream-caused-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-2012-061713/ «According to University
of Sheffield research, published
in the International Journal
of Climatology, unusual
Jet Stream changes were behind record surface melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet last summer.&raq
Jet Stream changes were behind record surface melt
of the Greenland Ice Sheet last summer.»
Researchers are already beginning to connect such
changes in the
jet stream to weather effects
in mid-latitudes such as the unseasonable blasts
of cold Arctic air known as the polar vortex.
This episode addressed Dr. Francis» hypothesis that climate
change might causing a «drunken Arctic» and slowed down
jet stream; a phenomenon which might result
in the kind
of extreme winter weather we've been having this year.
The primary cause
of changes in the course
of the northern hemisphere
jet stream ultimately goes back to sea surface temperatures
in the West Pacific.
It is all about
changes in behavior
of the
jet stream.
Thus there is a back and forth
in global cloudiness as the Sun's activity level
changes over the decades and centuries — such as during the period covering the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the current warm period — through latitudinal shifting
of the
jet stream tracks and permanent climate zones.