d) WP - Clim: co-design
of climate modeling experiments with PMIP and CMIP ECR Kamolphat Atsawawaranunt, Sandy Harrison
And I do think there are a number of questions about interpretation of observations, and the details
of the climate model experiment (the very large exponentially increasing freshwater fluxes, the low - resolution of the ocean which obscures the potentially important role of wind - driven ocean gyres, etc.).
Here we analyze a series
of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.
Newspaper reports
of climate modelling experiments normally focus on predicted changes in global temperature.
Clever planning
of climate model experiments may reduce the need for computational resources
- Co-design
of climate model experiments with the PMIP Community (Clim).
«Using a large suite
of climate model experiments, we see a clear emergence of much more intense, hot conditions in the U.S. within the next three decades,» said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and the lead author of the study.
Based upon a number
of climate model experiments for the twenty - first century where there are stases in global surface temperature and upper ocean heat content in spite of an identifiable global energy imbalance, we infer that the main sink of the missing energy is likely the deep ocean below 275 m depth.
Not exact matches
Instead progress is generally made by a painstaking piecing together
of evidence from every new temperature measurement, satellite sounding or
climate -
model experiment.
The
model calculations, which are based on data from the CLOUD
experiment, reveal that the cooling effects
of clouds are 27 percent less than in
climate simulations without this effect as a result
of additional particles caused by human activity: Instead
of a radiative effect
of -0.82 W / m2 the outcome is only -0.60 W / m2.
Future field
experiments that can manipulate all three conditions at once will lead to better
models of how long - term
climate changes will affect ecosystems worldwide.
Three approaches were used to evaluate the outstanding «carbon budget» (the total amount
of CO2 emissions compatible with a given global average warming) for 1.5 °C: re-assessing the evidence provided by complex Earth System
Models, new
experiments with an intermediate - complexity
model, and evaluating the implications
of current ranges
of uncertainty in
climate system properties using a simple
model.
Nadeau also studies the potential impacts
of climate change on species around the globe, using
modeling, field observation and
experiments to predict where species are most vulnerable and determine how conservation groups can best mitigate the negative impacts
of climate change on animal populations.
The ability
of the inorganic component
of sea spray particles to take up water has been the focus
of this international study where a large suite
of well - controlled laboratory
experiments have shown, for the first time, that the hygroscopicity
of the inorganic component
of sea spray is significantly lower than pure sodium chloride, a substance routinely used to describe their hygroscopicity in
climate models.
«These
experiments will enable us to further test and refine the underlying processes in the CORPSE
model and should lead to improved predictions
of the role
of plant - soil interactions in global
climate change,» Sulman said.
Models and
experiments only go so far in assessing the effects
of climate change.
«When we analyzed IPCC
climate model experiments driven with the time - evolution
of observed sea surface temperatures, we found much larger rates
of tropical widening, in better agreement to the observed rate — particularly in the Northern Hemisphere,» Allen said.
The new findings
of successful multi-year drought / fire predictions are based on a series
of computer
modeling experiments, using the state -
of - the - art earth system
model, the most detailed data on current ocean temperature and salinity conditions, and the
climate responses to natural and human - linked radiative forcing.
They will exploit a combination
of state -
of - the - art
climate model experiments, advanced statistical techniques and idealised dynamical frameworks to accomplish the project.
The group hopes other scientists will conduct similar
experiments using different
models to help hone in on a more reliable measure
of climate sensitivity.
Using the sophisticated UK Met Office
climate model, Dr Screen conducted computer
experiments to study the effects
of Arctic sea - ice loss on the NAO and on Northern European winter temperatures.
An international group
of atmospheric chemists and physicist could now have solved another piece in the
climate puzzle by means
of laboratory
experiments and global
model simulations.
For the study, Gentine and Lemordant took Earth system
models with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) CO2 responses and used a multi-
model statistical analysis from CMIP5, the most current set
of coordinated
climate model experiments set up as an international cooperation project for the International Panel on Climate
climate model experiments set up as an international cooperation project for the International Panel on
Climate Climate Change.
The research made use
of the weather@home citizen - science project, part
of Oxford's climateprediction.net
climate modelling experiment, to
model possible weather for January 2014 in both the current
climate and one in which there was no human influence on the atmosphere.
Using a super-ensemble
of regional
climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net
experiment, we will determine how the carbon produced by these major industrial entities is contributing to the damages from
climate change.
To understand the role
of human - induced
climate change in these new records they compare simulations
of the Earth's
climate from nine different state -
of - the - art
climate models and the very large ensemble
of climate simulations provided by CPDN volunteers for the weather@home ANZ
experiments for the world with and without human - induced
climate change.
Standard
experiments, agreed upon by the
climate modelling community to facilitate
model intercomparison (see Section 8.1.2.2), have produced archives
of model output that make it easier to track historical changes in
model performance.
For the work
of the Montana
Climate Assessment, we employed an ensemble from the fifth iteration
of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which includes up to 42 GCMs depending on the
experiment conducted (CMIP5 undated).
The weather@home regional
climate modelling system for Australia and New Zealand has been used for a number
of different
experiments in 2016.
Climate modeling groups have also been
experimenting with ways to use the predictability
of deeper ocean circulations (where internal variations can persist for up to a decade), but results have been mixed at best.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cmip5 ``... (CMIP5) is an internationally coordinated activity to perform
climate model simulations for a common set
of experiments across all the world's major
climate modelling centres....
The CMIP5
modelling exercise involved many more
experiments and many more
model - years
of simulation than previous CMIP projects, and has been referred to as «the moon - shot
of climate modelling» by Gerry Meehl, a senior member
of the international steering committee, WGCM.....»
They conclude, based on study
of CMIP5
model output, that equilibrium
climate sensitivity (ECS) is not a fixed quantity — as temperatures increase, the response is nonlinear, with a smaller effective ECS in the first decades
of the
experiments, increasing over time.
The odds may have shifted to make some
of them more likely than in an unchanging
climate, but attribution
of the change in odds typically requires extensive
model experiments, a topic taken up in Chapter 9.
Then there are the tests
of climate changes themselves: how does a
model respond to the addition
of aerosols in the stratosphere such as was seen in the Mt Pinatubo «natural
experiment»?
Numerous
climate modeling experiments which have included the role
of natural (both solar and volcanic) radiative forcing have concluded that natural forcing can not explain 20th century warming.
But it's still the case that you just don't need to look at a
climate model to evaluate the correctness
of the
experiment.
They show this with an elegant
experiment, in which they «force» their global
climate model to follow the observed history
of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
Claudio Piani is currently working on a paper which attempts to provide a measure
of model skill compared to recent
climate (this work is in parallel to the sorts
of things David Sexton has been doing at the Hadley Centre for the QUMP
experiment, and similar to some
of the work that has been undertaken as part
of CMIP - 2).
«Numerous
experiments have been conducted using
climate models to determine the likely causes
of the 20th - century
climate change.
The CMIP5
modelling exercise involved many more
experiments and many more
model - years
of simulation than previous CMIP projects, and has been referred to as «the moon - shot
of climate modelling» by Gerry Meehl, a senior member
of the international steering committee, WGCM.....»
This was one
of the earliest transient
climate model experiments and so rightly gets a fair bit
of attention when the reliability
of model projections are discussed.
He analysed some
of the recent
climate model results from an
experiment known by the cryptic name «CMIP5 `.
Certainly, the field that is lumped in under the 2 billion is much broader than the
climate model development community and its policy - driven
experiments, which I would guess amounts to less than 5 %
of the total.
As usual, we only have a single Earth and we are running the
experiment on it right now, so
models are the only way we can run multiple «
experiments» and see what properties
of the
climate system we can figure out.
As a youth I participated in many
of my father's
experiments, observing first - hand the benefits
of atmospheric CO2 on plant life and the manifold problems with the
model - based theory
of climate change, all
of which events occurred long, long before James Hansen stood in front
of the U.S. Senate and brought the CO2 debate to the eyes
of the public in 1988.
The issue with the Mauritsen and Stevens piece is that it tries to go well beyond a «what if»
modeling experiment, and attempts to make contact with a lot
of other issues related to historical
climate change (the hiatus, changes in the hydrologic cycle, observed tropical lapse rate «hotspot» stuff, changes in the atmsopheric circulation, etc) by means
of what the «iris» should look like in other
climate signals.
Of course, in analyzing potential systematics in tornado classification, it is essential that the group not be guided by theoretical
models, in this case, the «latest
climate model experiments» that Markowski and team cite.
Kosaka and Xie made global
climate simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the
model simulated well the observed global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this
experiment does not identify the cause
of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.
We use
models instead
of experiments because the
climate is simply too complex to be able to test with
experiments.