That's science, and the impressive successes
of climate models show they are good models.
For instance, despite the obvious failures
of climate models shown clearly in diagrams produced by Roy Spencer (shown on this page already), scientists continue to spin about them today, attempting to claim the models are accurate.
Not exact matches
Darin Kingston
of d.light, whose profitable solar - powered LED lanterns simultaneously address poverty, education, air pollution / toxic fumes / health risks, energy savings, carbon footprint, and more Janine Benyus, biomimicry pioneer who finds
models in the natural world for everything from extracting water from fog (as a desert beetle does) to construction materials (spider silk) to designing flood - resistant buildings by studying anthills in India's monsoon
climate, and
shows what's possible when you invite the planet to join your design thinking team Dean Cycon, whose coffee company has not only exclusively sold organic fairly traded gourmet coffee and cocoa beans since its founding in 1993, but has funded dozens
of village - led community development projects in the lands where he sources his beans John Kremer, whose concept
of exponential growth through «biological marketing,» just as a single kernel
of corn grows into a plant bearing thousands
of new kernels, could completely change your business strategy Amory Lovins
of the Rocky Mountain Institute, who built a near - net - zero - energy luxury home back in 1983, and has developed a scientific, economically viable plan to get the entire economy off oil, coal, and nuclear and onto renewables — while keeping and even improving our high standard
of living
Roger Helmer MEP (TP, December) lists a series
of «facts» on
climate change which apparently
shows that «reality defies computer
models».
Gavin Schmidt, a
climate scientist and modeler at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said this sort
of research is useful for modelers, who can take these results and see whether they
show up when they run their
models.
However, most
climate system
models have not done a good job
of showing the relationship between permafrost and soil carbon dynamics.
Richard Betts, head
of climate impacts at the Hadley Centre
of the U.K.'s Met office presented to reporters in Copenhagen today a new analysis
of modeling data
showing how conserving tropical forests is going to be crucial if the world is to make a target
of 2 ˚C, even under the most conservative projections
of how much carbon the forests contain.
Professor Gavin Foster, from the University
of Southampton, said: «The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change have shown that climate models can successfully simulate climates from the freezing world of the last Ice Age, to the intense warmth of the «Eocene greenhouse», 50 million yea
Climate Change have
shown that
climate models can successfully simulate climates from the freezing world of the last Ice Age, to the intense warmth of the «Eocene greenhouse», 50 million yea
climate models can successfully simulate
climates from the freezing world
of the last Ice Age, to the intense warmth
of the «Eocene greenhouse», 50 million years ago.
In a recent study, for instance, well - respected
climate models were
shown to have completely opposing estimates for the overall effect
of the clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net warming, whereas others found cooling.
The ability
of the inorganic component
of sea spray particles to take up water has been the focus
of this international study where a large suite
of well - controlled laboratory experiments have
shown, for the first time, that the hygroscopicity
of the inorganic component
of sea spray is significantly lower than pure sodium chloride, a substance routinely used to describe their hygroscopicity in
climate models.
Using math and computer skills, he developed systems
models showing 150 years
of climate variability.
While some
models show that the effects
of climate change could potentially benefit water resources in Asia, the majority point in the opposite direction.
Some
climate change deniers have taken encouragement from the pause, saying they
show warming predictions are flawed, but Mann, a co-author on the study, notes that «there have been various explanations for why [the slowdown is happening], none
of which involve
climate models being fundamentally wrong.»
The
models show that
climate change is a less influential driver
of global food security than income, population and productivity — but it could still pose a significant risk to the nutrition levels
of people living in the world's poorest regions, Baldos said.
In the future, Gettelman thinks more accurate risk
models will be needed to back up
climate models, ultimately
showing the accumulating dangers
of consolidating societies on coastal shores.
According to Yousuke Sato
of the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science (AICS), «this research
shows that powerful supercomputers, by performing more fine - grained simulations, can help us to
model weather and
climate patterns in a more realistic way.
Using an interdisciplinary approach that combined evidence from
climate modelling of large 20th - century eruptions, annual measurements
of Nile summer flood heights from the Islamic Nilometer — the longest - known human record
of environmental variability — between 622 and 1902, as well as descriptions
of Nile flood quality in ancient papyri and inscriptions from the Ptolemaic era, the authors
show how large volcanic eruptions impacted on Nile river flow, reducing the height
of the agriculturally - critical summer flood.
This time, no return to cooler period Tim Barnett, a climatologist at Scripps Institution
of Oceanography, said the new results appear to agree with his earlier work that used
climate models to
show humans» greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to declining snowpack in the western United States.
This image
shows QBO amplitude near the equator at a height
of 11 miles: Observed values from balloon wind measurements from 1950s to present; simulations from a
climate model driven with observed concentrations
of greenhouse gases from 1900 to 2005 and then with projected increase through 2100.
Other studies have resorted to
modeling to understand the effects
of contrails, which have
shown that they can have an appreciable impact on global
climate, despite their transient nature.
«As a result, some atmospheric circulations systems can not be resolved by these
models, and this clearly impacts the accuracy
of climate change predictions as
shown in our study.»
Observations and the high - resolution
climate model CM2.6
show a strong relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion
of warm - temperate slope water entering the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf, primarily through the Gulf
of Maine's Northeast Channel.
By combining
climate and plate movement data in a computer
model, geophysicist Giampiero Iaffaldano
of the Australian National University in Canberra
showed that the monsoons can explain the acceleration.
Climate modeling shows that the trends
of warming ocean temperatures, stronger winds and increasingly strong upwelling events are expected to continue in the coming years as carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase.
Dr Stephen Grimes
of Plymouth University, who initiated the research project, highlighted the
climate changes that must have caused this increase in sediment erosion and transport — «We have
climate model simulations
of the effect
of warming on rainfall during the PETM event, and they
show some changes in the average amounts
of rainfall, but the largest change is how this rainfall is packaged up — it's concentrated in more rapid, extreme events — larger and bigger storms.»
Subsequently cited in 54 papers, the Science study
showed that even using the lower end
of 23
climate models suggested that in the tropics at the end
of the century, «the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations,» with the devastating impacts on wheat and rice yields.
Through an ensemble
modeling approach, we were able to
show that without anthropogenic effects, the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe,» says co-author Axel Timmermann, Director
of the newly founded IBS Center for
Climate Physics, within the Institute for Basics Science (IBS), and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.
The researchers found
climate models that
show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough
of this lower - level water vapour process.
Rather, the
models are constructed to
show that
climate change and rising temperatures increase conditions that are conducive to the transmission
of malaria.
However, unlike the
climate model simulations, the new precipitation reconstruction does not
show an increase
of wet and dry anomalies in the twentieth century compared to the natural variations
of the past millennium.
The researchers
showed that the
climate change
models used by the IPCC underestimate Africa's emissions, which could account for 20 - 55 %
of global anthropogenic emissions
of gaseous and particulate pollutants by 2030.
A study published April 7 in PNAS Online Early Edition describes how a team
of scientists, including researchers from the University
of California, Davis,
showed that vapor losses to the walls
of laboratory chambers can suppress the formation
of secondary organic aerosol, which in turn has contributed to the underprediction
of SOA in
climate and air quality
models.
Climate models show the absence
of a global atmospheric circulation pattern which bolsters high ocean temperatures key to coral bleaching
Using a custom, state -
of - the - art
model of these sectors, the researchers
showed that the window for initiating additional
climate action would close between 2023 and 2025 for the automotive sector and between 2023 and 2026 for the electric sector.
«We're
showing the shortcomings
of climate models,» says Susan Lozier, a physical oceanographer at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, who leads the $ 35 million, seven - nation project known as the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP).
«It
shows that this
climate system in the
model is sensitive to a variety
of different natural
climate changes that occurred over the last 21,000 years.»
This fact may lead may limit the predictive capacity
of the
models bot more research is needed: «It remains to be
shown how ignoring core parts
of the industrial system influences the feasibility
of certain scenarios to mitigate
climate change.
Unfortunately it is not enough,
show new
models that investigate how
climate change will influence the availability
of prey and quality
of natural areas in the future.
Using
climate models at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, François Forget (CNRS) and Martin Turbet (UPMC)
show that, with a cold
climate and an atmosphere denser than it is today, ice accumulated at around latitude 25 ° S, in regions corresponding to the sources
of now dry river beds.
A new
modeling study to be published in the Journal
of Climate shows that stronger polar winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice, even in a warming c
Climate shows that stronger polar winds lead to an increase in Antarctic sea ice, even in a warming
climateclimate.
Our work
shows that this way
of thinking is outdated, and we may be grossly under - accounting for methane in our existing
climate models.»
We
show elsewhere (8) that a forcing
of 1.08 W / m2 yields a warming
of 3/4 °C by 2050 in transient
climate simulations with a
model having equilibrium sensitivity
of 3/4 °C per W / m2.
Their findings
show that
climate models are underestimating the total amount
of carbon - containing particles formed in the air.
Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
showed that global
climate models are not accurately depicting the true depth and strength
of tropical clouds that have a strong hold on the general circulation
of atmospheric heat and the global water balance.
Results: Today's
climate models regard organic aerosols as static carbon - based molecules, but scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University
of California, Irvine
showed that the particles are very dynamic.
The Soon - Monckton memo goes even further, claiming that they «have recently discovered and corrected a long - standing error
of physics in the
climate models» that would
shows any
climate change due to human causes will be «too small and slow to be harmful and will prove beneficial.»
(2)
Climate models show a «cold blob» in the subpolar Atlantic as well as enhanced warming off the US east coast as a characteristic response pattern to a slowdown
of the AMOC.
Several media outlets are reporting that new research
shows climate model projections
of rainfall extremes may be «flawed» or «wrong».
Despite these caveats, we have
shown that the
model realistically simulates meridional changes
of sea level pressure in response to
climate forcings (Sect. 3.8.5).
Climate models show that the rate
of warming is consistent with expectations (5).