Early warning
of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness
-LSB-...] subject
of climate tipping points have been the subject of much debate and confusion.
[iv] Urgency derives from the nearness
of climate tipping points, beyond which climate dynamics will cause rapid changes out of humanity's control.
Just in case you think this is new, review the posts here about the «burning embers» diagram from the 2001 intergovernmental panel report and the realities behind the oversimplified notion
of climate tipping points.
If, and this is THE big IF, we have finally passed one
of the climate tipping points, then all past statistics are of no value in predicting the new dynamics of ice extent in the arctic.
Here's what he said in my recent analysis
of climate tipping points.
This PNAS publication from 2008 also confirms the existence
of a climate tipping point for the Amazon rainforest.
Not exact matches
As Andre Leu, the current president
of the International Federation
of Organic Agricultural Movements (IFOAM) noted, «Dec. 1, 2015 will be seen as one
of the most important days in history... as the
tipping point when the world was saved from catastrophic
climate change.»
We could be well past the
tipping point of climate change,» he said.
Judge Coffin says the nature, facts and drivers
of climate change will be central to the case — including whether there is a threshold at which the concentration
of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches a
tipping point locking in irreversible planetary damage.
To avoid multiple
climate tipping points, policy makers need to act now to stop global CO2 emissions by 2050 and meet the Paris Agreement's goal
of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, a new study has said.
Professor Tim Lenton, from the University
of Exeter and one
of the authors
of the study said: «Irreversible
tipping points are one
of the biggest risks we face if we carry on changing the
climate.
Ice - sheet growth, coupled with favorable changes in Earth's orbit, pushed the planet past a climatic
tipping point and led to both the rapid buildup
of a permanent ice sheet in the Antarctic and much larger changes in global
climate, says Hren.
There are six themes: The first one is the natural science part
of it — What do we understand about this
climate system,
tipping points, how bad could this go?
The desertification
of the Sahara has long been a target for scientists trying to understand
climate and ecological
tipping points.
Mathematically, it turns out, the shift from a healthy state to a depressed state resembles other so - called
tipping points — moments
of critical mass where a system, such as changes to Earth's
climate or a social trend — shift rapidly from one state to another.
From studies
of changes in temperature and sea level over the last million years, we know that the
climate system has
tipping points.
Indeed, one
of the findings in the recent paper by Overpeck et al. (this weeks Science), is that even as the Greenland ice sheet melts faster than originally expected, it still won't provide sufficient meltwater forcing
of the North Atlantic circulation (which is the feature
of the
climate system most commonly implicated in the discussion
of «
tipping points») to force any sort
of threshold change.
A
climate «
tipping point» occurs when a small change triggers a cascading set
of catastrophes that upsets the entire
climate system for a long time. Examples?
How do short term
climate forcing agents (like methane and black carbon) contribute to the danger
of triggering a
tipping point in the Gulf Stream System?
I don't mean to imply this is a purely linear process, but we have created a preexisting condition where every element
of the
climate system is already sensitive to change due to already having been altered before the
tipping point that would have triggered it arrives.
«
Climate change, as well as human - caused deforestation and biomass burning, can lead to ecological and climatic
tipping points that could release massive pools
of stored carbon,» said Scot Martin, the Gordon McKay Professor
of Environmental Science and Engineering at the Harvard John A. Paulson School
of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) and Professor
of Earth and Planetary Sciences in the Department
of Earth and Planetary Sciences.
Unless a human «
tipping point» is reached soon, with implementation
of effective policy actions, large irreversible
climate changes will become unavoidable.
My research group is in the process
of developing a set
of experiments using the
Climate Impact Lab framework to investigate the consequences
of physical «
tipping points.»
Jonathan Cohen, cofounder and president
of the National School
Climate Center, believes that we are at a
tipping point on SEL and prosocial educational improvement efforts.
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Curated by David Buckland, Founder and Director
of Cape Farewell, Carbon 13 features eight international artists who have ventured alongside scientists to some
of the world's geographic
tipping points, places profoundly stressed by our warming planet, and whose work aims to stimulate a wider engagement with the
climate debate.
Curated by Angela Chan and including artists Joey Holder and Jakob Kudsk Steensen among others, the show contemplates the so - called «
tipping point»
of climate change and man - made mass species extinction.
Indeed, one
of the findings in the recent paper by Overpeck et al. (this weeks Science), is that even as the Greenland ice sheet melts faster than originally expected, it still won't provide sufficient meltwater forcing
of the North Atlantic circulation (which is the feature
of the
climate system most commonly implicated in the discussion
of «
tipping points») to force any sort
of threshold change.
Climate homeostasis has a quite wide stress margin built into it's design but once we go over those
tipping points (it's like a few more
of those ropes breaking)..
# 5 Martin Pierard, I wouldn't think
of a single global
tipping point as such, what's important in this respect are the different
climate subsystems.
I'll try to maintain the discipline to be «caustically honest» (to steal a phrase used by a
climate scientist in a story
of mine on
tipping points last year) in weighing the issues and opportunities confronting humanity as its astonishing 200 - years - and - counting growth spurt crests.
Early signs
of scientific discomfort with some allusions to
climate - related
tipping points came in a 2006 blog post, «Runaway Tipping Points of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space S
tipping points came in a 2006 blog post, «Runaway Tipping Points of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space St
points came in a 2006 blog post, «Runaway
Tipping Points of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space S
Tipping Points of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space St
Points of No Return,» by Gavin Schmidt
of Realclimate.org and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
We believe that negative synergies between deforestation,
climate change, and widespread use
of fire indicate a
tipping point for the Amazon system to flip to non-forest ecosystems in eastern, southern and central Amazonia at 20 - 25 % deforestation.
Some veteran
climate scientists, while eager for cuts in heat - trapping emissions, warn that descriptions
of climatic
tipping points or thresholds could backfire in the absence
of evidence, leading to less public support for action.
But for those
of us who follow Hansen, Spratt, Monbiot, and many others in the tail
of a much more serious
climate change story: non-linear, with positive feedbacks,
tipping points, time lags and thresholds, we need a much more robust and focused scientific consensus now, without waiting years for the next IPCC reports, in time to win the crucial 08 election because the solution must be now, global and America must be a leader.
Certaintly there has been lots
of discussion in the media and in the scientific literature about the possiblity
of climate «
tipping points».
They are fascinated by the science, asking questions about the
climate history
of the Tibetan plateau and the chances
of reaching environmental
tipping points, as well as questions about western environmental thought and policy.
• Such unprecedented rising temperatures — combined with anticipated rapid industrialization
of the developing world — suggests we run a great risk
of pushing the
climate past a «
tipping point» within a lifetime.
This bought - off, pig - headed, chicken - hawk, war mongering administration's legacy could be as the most detrimental bunch
of A holes that has ever lived if they have foot - dragged long enough that the
climate has reached the
tipping points that climatologists fear.
Climate facts to warm to Christopher Pearson March 22, 2008 TheAustralianNews.com «CATASTROPHIC predictions
of global warming usually conjure with the notion
of a
tipping point, a
point of no return...»
One
of the texts that we use is With Speed & Violence: Why Scientists Fear
Tipping Points in
Climate Change by Fred Pearce.
But this
tipping point is ``...
of a different kind in the debate on
climate change.»
I have read further and found that the term
tipping point in the realm
of climate science can refer to many things such as ancient ice melting to the
point of releasing additional greenhouse gases.
Therefore, for any reasonable person the term «
tipping point» is completely inapropriate for back and forth
climate transitions, and usage
of it does not seem to be professional.
But there is no sign
of any «
tipping point» in terms
of GHG concentrations — any such event would come about due to non-linear effects in the
climate system.
Thus, the concept
of an emissions budget is very useful to get the message across that the amount
of CO2 that we can still emit in total (not per year) is limited if we want to stabilise global temperature at a given level, so any delay in reducing emissions can be detrimental — especially if we cross
tipping points in the
climate system, e.g trigger the complete loss
of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Utopian visions
of avoiding
climate «
tipping points» in the next decade are completely unrealistic.
While many
of his colleagues are (appropriately) quick to
point out hype from those aiming to undermine public confidence in
climate science, Schmidt has been unafraid also to note that reality on important issues — from
tipping points to extreme weather — is not always convenient for greenhouse campaigners.