The
amount of coal capacity retired in 2015 was about 4.6 % of the nation's coal capacity at the beginning of that year.
Using its newly updated CAVT, now on version 5.1, Synapse found that 77
percent of coal capacity in the United States (representing 242 gigawatts) is uneconomic and at risk for retirement when compared to the all - in costs of building and operating less expensive, more efficient energy resources.
Thirty - three
gigawatts of coal capacity are retired and only 14 gigawatts of new coal capacity already under construction are completed.
The onslaught
of coal capacity retirements in May and June could likely exert upward pressure on power prices in PJM, which have so far been running below 2014 levels, according to Genscape.
About half of those retired megawatts came from Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky, with those states each retiring at least 10 percent
of their coal capacity last year, the EIA said.
at the link below the histogram (third chart) shows China having built something like
600GW of coal capacity between 2000 and 2011.
In 2012, the same year when the U.S. lost about 9 GW
of coal capacity according to the EIA, Germany added 2.9 GW, and should add another 5.3 GW this year, out of about 8 GW of coal projects in the pipeline through 2015.
According to the WRI analysis, more than 34,000
MW of coal capacity is slated to come online in Vietnam, 30,000 MW in Turkey, and 22,000 MW in South Africa.
In January 2016, there was 1,090 GW
worth of coal capacity in pre-construction planning; as of January 2017, it had fallen to 570 GW.
A back - of - the - envelope calculation suggests that, if current capacity utilisation factors are maintained, this combined 170GW could replace about
70GW of coal capacity.
India is making strides in the area of clean energy, too, but there there is also the stated intention to build quite a
lot of coal capacity, and — unlike China — no commitment to eventual absolute reductions.
The US is expected to see anything from 13
gigawatts of coal capacity to 23 gigawatts retired this year because of air quality rules.
«For one key system, 89
percent of the coal capacity that is slated for retirement next year because of an EPA rule was called upon to meet rising demand.
Coal plants nationwide already only run around half of the time, nearly every Indian coal plant violates the country's new air pollution standard, and India's Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has proposed closing nearly 50
GW of coal capacity by 2027.
The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity reports that by the end of 2015, about 49,000
megawatts of coal capacity «will have retired or converted,» and that «[b] etween 2016 and 2018, an additional 16,000 MW are expected to retire or convert.»
If California's experience is any guide, the lost Oregon demand for coal will — contrary to the PUC's concerns — lead to the retirement of a roughly commensurate
amount of coal capacity.
Two coal plants, both delayed projects that were originally scheduled to be completed in 2011 - 12, accounted for
all of the coal capacity added in 2013.
Other states that traditionally have had high levels of coal - fired electricity generation, such as Indiana, West Virginia, and Virginia, each retired at least one GW
of coal capacity in 2015.
In addition, regulations imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) aimed at improving air quality have contributed to the retirement
of coal capacity (over 50 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity has been retired since 2002 with retirements in recent years partially due to regulations).
Nearly half of the 2015 retired coal capacity was located in three states — Ohio, Georgia, and Kentucky — and those states each retired at least 10 %
of their coal capacity in 2015.
About 30 %
of the coal capacity that retired in 2015 occurred in April, which is when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule went into effect.
And it found that an additional 57 GW (or 20 percent
of the coal capacity that was operating at the end of 2016) is uneconomic compared to existing natural gas.
Orvis and O'Boyle note that nearly 14 gigawatts (GW)
of coal capacity — nearly a quarter of all coal capacity in PJM, which oversees much of the Mid-Atlantic electric grid — and 1.4 GW of nuclear was forced offline during the Polar Vortex.
As a result of sustained low natural gas prices, environmental compliance requirements, and natural equipment aging, the AEO 2016 Reference case forecasts the retirements of over 50 GW
of coal capacity (see Figure 3).
If plants under construction are built and existing capacity are run at a 45 % capacity factor, then 210 GW
of coal capacity is unneeded in 2020 in an environment where power generation growth is 3 % per year.
It's worth noting that 8.4 GW
of coal capacity has already closed since 2010.