Coal 2017 Comprehensive analysis of recent trends and forecasts through 2022
of coal demand, supply and trade
Forecasting future world coal production is a complex task, incorporating considerations of the amounts and the qualities of known and projected coal reserves, the ability to increase coal production capacity and the growth
of coal demand.
Comprehensive analysis of recent trends and forecasts through 2022
of coal demand, supply and trade
But nearly half
of coal demand in China comes from industry directly — and that got hit by weak construction activity as well.
According to EIA forecasts, the vast majority
of coal demand over the coming decades will be from existing power plants, with currently existing plants still accounting for two - thirds of total demand in 2030.
In its latest Medium - Term Coal Market Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a slowing
of coal demand growth but no retreat in its global use.
As a group, the report notes, the G20 accounts for around 80 % of the world's total primary energy demand — including almost 95 %
of its coal demand and nearly three - quarters of its gas and oil demand.
China is the world's largest consumer of coal and its electricity sector is the largest single source
of coal demand, consuming approximately half of the country's coal.
With the Chinese market a major driver
of coal demand in Asia, any policy changes in the country will affect prices, contributing to the likelihood of continued price volatility in the seaborne coal market, wrote Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst for mining and metals fundamentals research, Rory Simington in a Nov. 16 report.
Not exact matches
Under this scenario, by 2040 global energy
demand will be significantly larger than it is now; oil,
coal, and natural gas each will account for about one - quarter
of total
demand, and solar and wind together will account for roughly 5 %.
Gregory Boyce, Chairman & CEO
of Peabody Energy, discusses the
demand for
coal in China and India.
By the mid 2020s, the IEA expects the U.S. to become the world's biggest exporter
of liquefied natural gas,
demand for which is set to rise strongly as China, India, and Southeast Asia all turn away from
coal to cleaner energy sources.
To beat the cold, China has temporarily eased restrictions on
coal production until the end
of the year as Premier Li Keqiang said there was a need to balance
demand to ramp up power output against pollution control.
It described a scenario whereby gas begins to replace
coal and oil as a transportation and electricity - generating fuel and satisfies a dominant share
of new
demand.
Times were best when mining wide veins
of high - sulfur, bituminous
coal close to the surface was cheap and
demand was high, and worst once miners had to dig deeper and
demand dropped.
Lower expected global
demand for U.S.
coal exports in 2018 and 2019 also contributes to the forecast
of lower
coal production.
A slowdown in the growth
of China's
coal demand, due to more tepid economic growth and fuel substitution, has sent the prices that Australia fetches for its thermal
coal plunging from US$ 125 a tonne in early 2012 to around US$ 70 a tonne.
Promises to bring back
coal as a viable part
of the U.S. energy policy have sent
coal stocks soaring, and if government policy succeeds in driving more domestic manufacturing and production, then
coal producers like Natural Resource Partners could see
demand keep climbing.
China's natural gas
demand has been boosted by price cuts aimed at switching users from
coal to the cleaner - burning fuel, according to one
of the country's biggest gas distributors.
China's
demand for resources to supply its industrial expansion has put upward pressure on prices for steel and its raw materials (iron ore, coking
coal), and on the costs
of shipping.
Chinese growth has meant enormous
demand and rising prices for many
of Canada's resources, particularly
coal and oil, as well as base metals such as copper, nickel and aluminum.
A key element in this shift is China; the value
of Chinese exports to Canada tripled over this period and Canadian exports to China, while still small relative to exports to the US, have grown steadily in value driven by commodity exports which have been buoyed by high prices and huge
demand in China for key Canadian exports such as minerals (nickel, coking
coal, potash, copper and iron ore), pulp and lumber.
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Cele notes that, «the
demand from China for iron - ore continues to grow, but at a declining pace, further exacerbating pricing pressure,» meaning that Vale's considerable investment in nickel,
coal, fertilisers and copper will only partially mitigate the impact
of the increase in iron - ore mining capacity globally on the company.
However, the Newcastle port operator's decision to introduce a quota system to allocate transport chain capacity and reduce the ship queue is one illustration that provides clear evidence that a shortage
of transport capacity is limiting the industry's ability to meet strong growth in
coal demand.
The prices
of other sources
of energy, such as
coal and gas, also appear to be affected by oil price movements, though these relationships are quite loose, and depend on the state
of world
demand and stock levels.
However,
coal demand can continue to decline if natural gas prices stay low for a very long time allowing further replacement
of coal - fired power plants with gas - fired ones.
In the case
of coal, while the capacity
of port and rail infrastructure has become stretched with the latest surge in global
demand, the industry has been expanding transport capacity steadily over recent years.
Ongoing strength in steel
demand has contributed to a considerable tightening
of the coking
coal market.
There was a strong commitment to securing long - term gas supplies Steel manufacturing capacity will grow to 300 million tons by 2025, which, alone will mean that India will need to import at least 150 million tons
of coking
coal to meet the
demand.
This recent pick - up in export volumes stems from rising global
demand and efforts to redress capacity constraints; it has been most pronounced in exports
of coal.
Steel manufacturing capacity will grow to 300 million tons by 2025, which, alone will mean that India will need to import at least 150 million tons
of coking
coal to meet the
demand.
The
coal industry is booming driven by growth in export
demand for
coal world wide and the large number
of coal - fired power plants currently scheduled to come online.
Currently
coal inventories are high in the electric power industry however recent data shows that inventories at eastern utilities is falling because
of increasing domestic and international
demand.
It's because the amount
of coal activity doesn't overlap
demand for railcars.
The reason orders should be headed upwards include, a decreasing number
of coal cars in storage, many new utilities coming online, increased
coal car loadings and increased domestic and international
demand.
It seems that US
coal employment (what remains
of it) is now, like US
coal production, dependent on exports, as domestic
demand inexorably crumbles beneath it.
As a result
of the strong global
demand for steel, coking
coal producers negotiated an increase
of around 120 per cent in contract prices, with iron ore contract prices generally rising by more than 70 per cent (Graph 39).
I wrote a longer post on the subject here, but the TL; DR version is: In the first decade
of the 21st century, Chinese
demand for
coal went through the roof.
In the peak case, Chinese
coal demand in 2020 is 9.8 percent below the level in 2013 and more than 300 Mtce below the base - case forecast
of nearly 2950 Mtce in 2020.
FOLLOWING more than a decade
of aggressive growth, global
coal demand has stalled, the International Energy Agency, IEA, said in its Annual Coal Market Report, released last w
coal demand has stalled, the International Energy Agency, IEA, said in its Annual
Coal Market Report, released last w
Coal Market Report, released last week.
The report sharply lowered its five - year global
coal demand growth forecast in reflection
of economic restructuring in China, which represents half
of global
coal consumption.
Currently, the energy needed to meet peaks in
demand is stored in the form
of natural gas and
coal.
In an energy outlook this week, analysts at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted a dramatic decline in U.S. energy
demand through 2035 and a reconfigured energy pie that sidelines a significant amount
of coal for natural gas.
More than 33 gigawatts
of coal - fired electricity generation will be retired over the next couple decades, EIA said, pushing up
demand for natural gas.
Rolling back environmental regulations will not lead to a significant resurgence
of the
coal industry because those regulations played only a minor role relative to slowing
demand for electricity and a surge in cheaper, cleaner sources
of energy.
Estimates peg
coal demand in the southeast in 2015 to be 23 percent
of total
coal demand in the country, or 880 million tons.
The spread
of urban centers increases the
demand for electricity, more than 75 percent
of which in China is generated from
coal - fired power plants.
«It's really a tale
of two markets,» he said, noting that as U.S. thermal
coal prices soften,
demand for high - grade metallurgical
coal and some thermal
coal has helped prop up U.S.
coal mining activity in traditional high - volume regions like Appalachia and the Powder River Basin.