A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range
of contributions to sea level rise.
By Jim Steele A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range
of contributions to sea level rise.
, and we read that we could see in the next few decades about 4 / 10ths of an inch
of contribution to sea level rise.
Present uncertainties of ice shelf mass loss are large, however, with estimates
of their contribution to sea level rise ranging from a few centimeters to over one meter.
Not exact matches
«Ice loss from this part
of West Antarctica is already making a significant
contribution to sea -
level rise — around 1 mm per decade, and is actually one
of the largest uncertainties in global
sea -
level rise predictions.
Given the potentially catastrophic
contribution of such land ice
to global
sea level rise, a better understanding
of ice dynamics is one
of the key goals
of the IPY.
The warming, melting and potential
contributions to sea level rise from glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica in the face
of climate change has long since been a serious concern.
Since the 1990s, the retreat
of glaciers in Alaska has made a disproportionally large
contribution to global
sea -
level rise.
«By processing the historical archive acquired by the Danish during the last century, they were able
to provide an estimation
of the ice sheet
contribution to sea -
level rise since 1900, which was critically missing in the last IPCC report,» noted Jeremie Mouginot, a climate scientist at the University
of California, Irvine.
This suggests that Greenland's
contribution to global
sea level rise may be even higher in the future,» said Bevis, who is also the Ohio Eminent Scholar in Geodynamics and professor
of earth sciences at Ohio State.
However, if as a consequence
of shortening, the glaciers are also flowing faster, then we would be seeing another (small)
contribution to sea level rise.
From that number, they have calculated Greenland's
contribution to sea level rise over that time, which they estimate
to be about 10
to 17 percent
of the total global
sea level rise of about 1 foot since 1900.
The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) has been melting so slowly and so negligibly in recent decades that the entire ice sheet's total
contribution to global
sea level rise was a mere 0.39
of a centimeter (0.17
to 0.61 cm) between 1993 and 2010 (Leeson et al, 2017).
Marine Biologist Tom Iliffe, also from Texas A&M University at Galveston, said: «Providing a model for the basic function
of this globally - distributed ecosystem is an important
contribution to coastal groundwater ecology and establishes a baseline for evaluating how
sea level rise, seaside touristic development and other stressors will impact the viability
of these lightless, food - poor systems.»
Berthier, E., Schiefer, E., Clarke, G.K.C., Menounos, B. & Remy, F.
Contribution of Alaskan glaciers
to sea -
level rise derived from satellite imagery.
Last year, an influential publication showed that Antarctica's
contribution to rising sea levels depends largely on the stability
of these melting ice shelves.
Sea level rise due to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant sea level rise contribution [2
Sea level rise due
to ice shelf collapse is as yet limited, but large ice shelves surrounding some
of the major Antarctic glaciers could be at risk, and their collapse would result in a significant
sea level rise contribution [2
sea level rise contribution [22].
The findings «lend support
to our confidence in recent estimates
of sea level rise and the increasing ice sheet
contribution,» said Michael Oppenheimer, the Albert G. Milbank professor
of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University's department
of geosciences, in an email
to The Post.
While this process is a natural part
of the life cycle
of an ice shelf, there is concern that when it occurs, it could usher in a period
of irrevocable retreat and possibly lead
to the ice shelf's demise and further
contributions to global
sea level rise.
I didn't see this new paper,
Contribution of Antarctica
to Past and Future
Sea -
Level Rise, mentioned in this thread, yet.
The reason it's valuable is that for all the recent discussion
of fast dynamic
contributions to sea level rise, no one has looked at the glacier dynamics that would be required
to accomplish it.
There's much more
to discuss about the significance
of surface melting in relation
to Greenland ice loss and — in the end — a
rising contribution to the oceans and
sea -
level rise.
Changes in the Arctic affect the rest
of the world, not only in obvious ways (such as the Arctic's
contribution to sea -
level rise), but through the Arctic's role in the global climate system, its influence on ocean circulation, and its impacts on mid-latitude weather.
Human
contribution so far
to sea level rise does not seem particularly significant, given the early 20th century rate
of sea level rise is about the same as the current rate.
Mass changes
of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and
contributions to sea -
level rise: 1992 - 2002.
But, in the mean time the question is what
to do about
rising sea levels which, even without anthropogenic
contributions of greenhouse gases, would
rise and fall as they always have.
Eric Rignot most recent work in 2008 supported a larger, accelerating
contribution of Antarctica's ice mass balance
to the
rise in
sea level.
If a negative surface mass balance were sustained for millennia, that would lead
to virtually complete elimination
of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting
contribution to sea level rise of about 7 m.
The
contribution from glaciers and ice caps (not including Greenland and Antarctica), on the other hand, is computed from a simple empirical formula linking global mean temperature
to mass loss (equivalent
to a rate
of sea level rise), based on observed data from 1963
to 2003.
However, because they are partly submerged, their direct
contribution to sea level rise is much smaller than the
contribution made by the melting
of an equivalent volume
of (land - based) ice sheets.
«Alaskan and immediately adjacent Canadian glaciers supply one
of the largest measured glaciological
contributions to global
sea level rise (~ 0.14 mm yr - 1, equivalent
to new estimates from Greenland).
The review
of Sheperd and Wingham 2007 gives a best estimate
of 0,35 mm / yr for present
contribution of Greenland + Antarctica
to sea level rise.
Thus, whatever the
contribution of mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet
to the huge (4 - 8 m)
rise in
sea level of the Eemian, it occurred under very strong temperature forcing.
For example, if this
contribution were
to grow linearly with global average temperature change, the upper ranges
of sea level rise for SRES scenarios shown in Table SPM - 3 would increase by 0.1 m
to 0.2 m. Larger values can not be excluded, but understanding
of these effects is too limited
to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate or an upper bound for
sea level rise.
However, for the recent period 1993
to 2003, the small discrepancy between observed
sea level rise and the sum
of known
contributions might be due
to unquantified human - induced processes (e.g., groundwater extraction, impoundment in reservoirs, wetland drainage and deforestation).
Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said, «None
of this has been predicted by numerical models, and therefore all projections
of the
contribution of Greenland
to sea level [
rise] are way below reality.»
For observed 20th - century
sea level rise, based on tide gauge records, Church et al. (2001) adopted as a best estimate a value in the range
of 1
to 2 mm yr — 1, which was more than twice as large as the TAR's estimate
of climate - related
contributions.
If the melting rate continues
to stay within those two points, and given that the current
contribution to sea level from the Greenland Ice Sheet is only about 0.1 mm / year, we won't see a lot
of sea level rise until later this century.
As the rate
of ice loss has accelerated, its
contribution to global
sea level rise has increased from a little more than half
of the total increase from 1993 - 2008
to 75 - 80 percent
of the total increase between 2003 - 2007.
NASA hosted a media teleconference
to discuss new research results on the stability
of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its potential
contribution to future
sea level rise.
«Mass Changes
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and Shelves and
Contributions to Sea -
Level Rise: 1992 - 2002.»
With the IPCC previously «taking a pass», in its assessment
of Greenland's
contribution to sea -
level rise - due
to poor understanding
of how ice sheets would respond
to global warming back in 2007 - this new paper is an important first stab at pinning down the slippery mechanisms
of «ice sheet dynamics».
Recent work has suggested that rapid retreat is already underway for sections
of the West Antarctic ice sheet, raising the possibility
of increasing
contributions to sea -
level rise.
For the 1961 - 2003 period they clearly note: «For the period 1961
to 2003, the sum
of climate
contributions is estimated
to be smaller than the observed
sea level rise.»
«With cumulative fossil fuel emissions
of 10,000 gigatonnes
of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected
to become almost ice - free with an average
contribution to sea -
level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium.»
Hansen refers
to them in this way «They identified eight episodes
of large iceberg flux, with the largest flux occurring ∼ 14 600 years ago, providing evidence
of an Antarctic
contribution to Meltwater Pulse 1A, when
sea level rose an average
of 3 — 5 m century − 1 for a few centuries (Fairbanks, 1989).»
The IPCC projections
of sea level rise are based largely on the slow, steady and inexorable thermal expansion
of the oceans (as water heats, its volume increases) with some additional
contributions from the melting
of mountain glaciers (almost all
of which are expected
to be gone by mid century).
Acceleration
of the
contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
to sea level rise.
Looking at these glacial flows individual
contributions to overall mean
sea level rise (MSLR) and talking in terms
of decades
to centuries for their collapse makes the problem seem very far off in human terms.
Note that the» < 0.5 mm / yr» statement is not definitive: they indicate a possibility
of larger TWS
contributions, but if that is the case there would likely have
to be other factors offsetting or we'd be inferring more
sea level rise than appears
to have actually happened.