The following chart is a classic example
of a cyclical bear market starting in 1966 and lasting till 1982.
But he did say that he can't understand why investors are willing to accept the idea
of cyclical bear markets (which last in the neighborhood of two and half years) but not secular ones.
Not exact matches
We are in no way predicting that a new down leg to the secular
bear is about to get underway because that would require evidence
of a new emerging
cyclical bear and that is not yet on the table.
A normal, run -
of - the mill
cyclical bear market wipes out more than half
of the preceding bull market advance.
Instead, this is nothing more than a
cyclical bear market within the confines
of a multi-year secular bull market.
In all probability, December 2015 marked the bottom
of the
cyclical gold and silver
bear market — a
bear cycle that had been in play since silver topped in May 2011 and gold in September
of the same year.
In fact, Mr. Ritholtz is one
of several commentators who believe this rally has merely been a temporary
cyclical swing in the midst
of a longer - term
bear market — one that began roughly a decade ago and is far from over.
Although the evidence is far from conclusive, when taken together a number
of price - related developments since the beginning
of this year suggest that the
cyclical commodity
bear market has ended.
However, after enormous bailouts
of the largest financial institutions in the country, as well as the auto industry, and even more monetary ease than in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE, and QE2); we started another
cyclical bull market within the secular
bear market.
Obviously, with a
cyclical asset you will find losses and the widest spread between price and financial operating metrics because a trough occurs in a
bear market
of declining product prices.
I'm fully aware
of the
cyclical nature
of the commodities business, but clearly the greater the bull market, the more severe the
bear market.
Aside from the
cyclical nature
of the industry discussed above, it's hard to find a strong
bear case for KLAC.
The counter to that is that this is merely a
cyclical bull market in the context
of the secular
bear market that started in 2000.
Well, Slater is really talking here about to spot a
bear market bottom, rather than a turning point in the middle
of a
cyclical recovery.
If July turns out to be the low point for this
bear market, it will then mark the second highest level
of valuation that a
cyclical bull has ever started from (the highest starting valuation level was in 2003).
Essentially, a secular bull period comprises several
cyclical bull -
bear cycles, where each bull market achieves a successively higher level
of market valuation at its peak.
As the guys at Nautilus Capital note,
cyclical bull markets within secular
bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average gain
of 85 %, while
cyclical bears within secular
bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses
of -39 %.
I feel that stocks are still one
of the best investments available due real earnings and liquidity, but I need to adjust my strategy depending on the kind
of market like
cyclical bull market,
cyclical bear market, secular bull market, and secular
bear market.
My own controversial perspective is that we are in a
cyclical bull market, which is a part
of a larger secular
bear market.
This page provides the percentage weights
of high -
cyclical sectors for all
Bear Market Strategy Funds.
The 1966 through 1982
bear market would see a total
of nine separate
cyclical phases — four bullish and five bearish.
Tags: 1966 - 1982 Secular
Bear Market, Anti-War Protesters, Bearish, Blue Chip, Bubble, Bullish, Carter Administration, CD, Certificate
of Deposit,
Cyclical Phases, Democratic Headquarters, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gaza, Iran Hostage Crisis, Israel, Kent State, Martin Luther King, Moon Landing, Nifty - Fifty, Oil Embargo, OPEC, Richard Nixon, Robert F Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Secular
Bear Market, Six Day War, Stagflation, Three Mile Island, Vietnam War, Watergate, West Bank
Within a secular trend, there may be a number
of shorter
cyclical bear and bull markets.
Yet, if we accept the notion that secular
bear markets include
cyclical bull markets within them, and if we recognize the epic nature
of the risk - off movement
of capital, «secular» is a more accurate descriptor (than «
cyclical»).
Anyone who thinks that the bounce means that the current
bear market is over would do well to study the behavior
of bear markets past (quite aside from simply looking at the plethora
of data about the economy in general, the
cyclical nature
of long - run corporate earnings and price - earnings multiples over the same cycle).
Then from 1937 to 1942 the DOW lost about half
of its value from near 200 to about 100 (
cyclical bear).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) seems to be a good indicator
of the
cyclical bull and
bear markets.
As you can see, this secular
bear market was typical
of most secular
bear markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed
of mostly vicious
cyclical bull and
bear markets that result in a mostly sideways long term movement.
The question is have we seen the end
of this
cyclical bull market and are we now entering a
cyclical bear market?
Predicted values
of hip score over smoothed splines
of absolute day
born show a definite
cyclical pattern (figure 4) with scores elevated in winter and reduced in summer.
This time, the butterfly-esque figure symbolizing the fragile nature
of the past, in its
cyclical movement, at once thunderously disappears and at the same time is
born again in a soft glide.
For more on the terrestrial foods topic, see my detailed discussion in this previous post, and this recent (March 30) ScienceNews report on yet another, largely anecdotal «polar
bears resort to bird eggs because
of declining sea ice» story (see photo below, based on a new paper by Prop and colleagues), which was also covered March 31 at the DailyMail («Polar
bears are forced to raid seabird nests as Arctic sea ice melts — eating more than 200 eggs in two hours,» with lots
of hand - wringing and sea ice hype but little mention
of the fact that there are many more
bears now than there were in the early 1970s around Svalbard or that the variable,
cyclical, AMO (not global warming) has had the largest impact on sea ice conditions in the Barents Sea).
The inflow
of foreign
born labor into construction is
cyclical and coincides with the overall housing activity.