Presented by Norman Shippee at the American Meteorological Society's 97th Annual Meeting in January, 2017: CanSIPS reproduces the overall spatial pattern
of cyclone track density found in ERA - Interim.
10 years
of cyclone track data from the National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Not exact matches
An increase in the width
of the tropics could increase the area affected by tropical storms (hurricanes), or could change climatological tropical
cyclone development regions and
tracks.
Those patterns matched three rather dire climate model predictions: that storm
tracks — the paths along which
cyclones travel in the Northern and Southern hemispheres — would shift poleward; that subtropical dry regions would expand, and that the tops
of the highest clouds would get even higher.
The role
of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime
cyclone track and emergence
of a warm - Arctic cold - Siberian anomaly.
To attack this information gap, the research team analyzed 30 years
of tropical
cyclone track data obtained from the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
With the improvements in forecast, 24 - hour
track and intensity forecast error
of the tropical
cyclones reduced from 141 km to 97 km and «landfall error» from 99 km to 56 km during 2006 to 2015.
At that stage, the
cyclone was
tracking further to the north
of The Whitsundays.
In sensitivity experiments the influence
of removed orography
of Greenland on the Arctic flow patterns and
cyclone tracks during winter have been determined using a global coupled model and a dynamical downscaling with the regional atmospheric model HIRHAM.
Further complicating the use
of these proxies is the fact that the deviation in oxygen - 18 ratios is affected by the amount
of TC rainfall, the distance from the center
of the
cyclone at which the rain was produced, and the intensity
of the
cyclone — so I doubt these proxies alone will enable disentangling intensity and rainfall, tnough a large number
of samples over an area could reveal information about the
track and extent
of the TC event.
Maps
of tropical
cyclone storm
tracks since 1906 for the Southern Hemisphere are available here, which is access via the «climate data online» lank at the top - right
of that first link.
There is clearly a good deal
of variation in the inherent predictability
of tropical
cyclone track from one case to another.
About two weeks ago, we had simultaneous formation
of two
cyclones (Gamede and Humba) in the Indian Ocean and currently we have George
tracking across the Kimberley and a yet - to - be-named
cyclone forming near Christmas Island.
The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI), an index that
tracks the highest and lowest 10 percent
of extremes in temperature, precipitation, drought and tropical
cyclones across the contiguous U.S., was a record - large 44 percent during the January - June period, over twice the average value.
Fourteen
of these tornadoes occurred during the 3rd and 4th, as a Gulf Coast
cyclone tracked northeastward across the region.
However, synoptic experience (e.g. Carlson 1991) and storm
tracking studies (Hoskins and Hodges 2002) suggest that mid latitude
cyclones move at about the speed
of the 70 kPa flow.
Lim, C.M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P.L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao, 2015: Cluster analysis
of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical
cyclone tracks.
Lim, C.M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P.L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, M. Zhao, Cluster analysis
of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical
cyclone tracks.
In particular, the
track forecasts
of tropical
cyclones were improved, which has been confirmed by tropical
cyclone centres.
Moderate to strong correlation between CanSIPS mean storm
track density and ERA - Interim
track density are found across the primary storm
track in the North Pacific and in the primary formation regions for Atlantic
cyclones affecting North America (Gulf
of Mexico and Cape Hatteras) Most CanSIPS bias in the North Pacific is centralized in the exit regions
of the Pacific storm
track, localized to Gulf
of Alaska and coastal BC.
AER scientists have developed techniques to process an ensemble
of over fifty tropical
cyclone track forecasts from all leading US and international hurricane modeling centers.
Forest disturbance in Madagascar and Vietnam increased significantly in the aftermath
of cyclones that hit the countries last year, according to a forest
tracking tool developed by a team
of...
The team then compared the oxygen isotope ratio for each year's wet season from 1990 to 2010 with a
cyclone activity index
of the average accumulated energy expended, based on factors such as number
of cyclones,
cyclone strength, size and time on storm
track.
[24] For hurricane evacuation studies, a family
of storms with representative
tracks for the region, and varying intensity, eye diameter, and speed, are modeled to produce worst - case water heights for any tropical
cyclone occurrence.
Tracks of past tropical cyclones Investigate the tracks of historical tropical cyclones across the Southern Hemis
Tracks of past tropical
cyclones Investigate the
tracks of historical tropical cyclones across the Southern Hemis
tracks of historical tropical
cyclones across the Southern Hemisphere.
[22] SLOSH inputs include the central pressure
of a tropical
cyclone, storm size, the
cyclone's forward motion, its
track, and maximum sustained winds.
A
cyclone tracking scheme will be applied to reanalyses, yielding an inventory
of Arctic
cyclone locations,
tracks, and intensities that will provide a framework for analysis
of ice and upper - ocean responses to storms.
The researchers compared the GNSS - R satellite measurements with data from other sources, including tropical
cyclone best
track data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information; two climate reanalysis products; and a spaceborne scatterometer, a tool that uses microwave radar to measure winds near the surface
of the ocean.
Uses the International Best
Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS, version v03r03) analysis during satellite era (1986 — 2010) and determines the trends
of intensification
of tropical
cyclones (TC) over all the global basins, except the North Indian Ocean
Together, the lightning and microwave data can
track a range
of parameters, including intensity changes in tropical
cyclones; past research has shown that intensity changes are related to the density
of lightning strokes [e.g., Solorzano et al., 2008; DeMaria et al., 2012].
Murakami, H., and B. Wang, 2010: Future change
of North Atlantic tropical
cyclone tracks: Projection by a 20 - km - mesh global atmospheric model.
Torn, R. D., and C. Snyder, 2012: Uncertainty
of tropical
cyclone best -
track information.
Examples include the forecasting
of tropical
cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles.
It is these circulation features, which as you know, determine locations
of drought, floods,
tracks of tropical
cyclones, etc..
Variations in tropical
cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons are dominated by ENSO and decadal variability, which result in a redistribution
of tropical storm numbers and their
tracks, so that increases in one basin are often compensated by decreases over other oceans.
Models are able to capture the general characteristics
of storm
tracks and extratropical
cyclones...
In contrast to strong sea surface temperature control on basin counts, unpredictable internal variability in
track density is strong over the Gulf Coast and US East Coast - indicating that prediction
of regional
cyclone activity, especially landfall hurricanes, is challenging.