Bear markets are invariably preceded by excess in the economy — over investment, high levels
of debt growth, high levels of inflation and tight monetary conditions — and excess in the share market in the form of overvaluation and investor euphoria.
Canadian households were already stretched before the holidays, with the pace
of debt growth far outstripping wages over the last decade or so.
Just as the period
of debt growth pushed asset prices up, so the period of debt deflation will push asset prices down.
Not exact matches
Debt levels for the average Canadian household are moving down (perhaps we've been taking those warnings from the Bank
of Canada to heart), and as a result there's been «modest»
growth in consumer spending, said Ferley.
The GOP acknowledges that the «static» impact
of the tax bill — the addition to the
debt with no economic -
growth assumptions — will be just under $ 1.5 trillion.
The IIF said Argentina, Nigeria, Turkey and China recorded the largest buildup in
debt ratios over the year, the latter fueled by ongoing
growth in indebtedness
of households and the nation's finance sector.
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our
growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability
of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4) margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost
of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates
of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates
of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect
of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals as a result
of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution
of key milestones such as the receipt
of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation
of our announced acquisition
of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability
of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk
of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production
of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts
of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak
of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact
of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance
debt, including our ability to obtain the
debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition
of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect
of governmental laws, such as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect
of changes in tax law, such as the effect
of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations
of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect
of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers, as well as the cost and availability
of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass
of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many
of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment
of interest on, and principal
of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness
of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness
of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact
of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition
of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco as a result
of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks
of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions
of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
Many
of these economies have become more sophisticated, their
debt - to - GDP ratios have come down and pro-business governments have boosted
growth.
While Republican leaders argued it would, every major independent analysis
of the bill, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, showed that it would grow the federal
debt over the next 10 years even when accounting for that increased
growth.
That would boost economic
growth, inflation and
debt: if the Joy
of Cooking contained a recipe for higher interest rates, that would be it.
Two more years
of economic pain Australia faces a longer period
of low
growth, higher
debt and higher unemployment than predicted just four weeks ago as the wave
of job losses gathered strength, with clothing manufacturer Pacific Brands axing 1850 staff across the country.
Their newest paper uses historical data from multiple countries to show that an increase in the ratio
of household
debt to gross domestic product over a three - to - four - year period predicts a decline in economic
growth.
In 2010, Shilling penned The Age
of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade
of Slow
Growth and Deflation, in which he predicted savings levels would increase and
debt levels would fall in the lead - up to 2020.
According to a report released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank
of New York, a substantial increase in household
debt in 2016 was led largely by
growth in student
debt and auto
debt.
That's a drag on
growth, but a welcome one if it means households have begun doing something about record levels
of debt.
Household
debt is high, but Bank
of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is more focused on sluggish
growth
The cost
of servicing the exploding
debt would exert tremendous pressure on the government to eliminate investments that could fuel
growth.
Her first budget, delivered Oct. 27, is a Keynesian gamble, using historic amounts
of debt (provincially) to create
growth in a mild recession.
We'd be coping with four more years
of colossal
growth in
debt.
The result is Canada is at «some risk»
of a balance sheet recession — a period
of slow
growth or decline caused by consumers saving and paying down
debt rather than spending.
Last week, the Bank
of Canada governor called elevated
debt levels a «side effect»
of the central bank's struggle to boost stagnant economic
growth.
In its last assessment, S&P said that Portugal's outlook was stable, «balancing our expectation
of further budgetary consolidation and likely receding banking sector risks over the next two years against the risks
of a weakening external
growth environment and vulnerabilities related to high private - and public - sector
debt.»
There are plenty
of risks globally that could shock the Canadian economy, such as a renewed flare - up in the European Union
debt crisis, or a slowdown in China's rampant
growth, which is showing signs
of overheating.
Critics point to MDC's lack
of overall profits and its huge amount
of debt as signs
of a company making more bets than it can afford to lose, (this, despite its increased revenues, organic
growth and free cash flow).
If we came to learn that excessive household
debt posed a bigger threat to economic
growth than does a certain level
of government
debt, then policy makers would want to take that into account when setting interest rates.
We are beginning to see the drag on
growth brought about the inexorable rise
of total (not just government) US
debt.
There's no new theme to it, just more riffs on the old one
of a self - reinforcing spiral
of slower
growth in China crushing the economies
of its raw material suppliers, while an appreciating dollar makes it ever harder for emerging market companies and governments to repay the
debts they gleefully took on when the Federal Reserve was giving away dollars for free.
The central bank maintained its long - standing prediction that regions experiencing elevated house price
growth, such as British Columbia and Ontario, will face localized risks, but the most likely scenario remains a «soft landing» and stabilization
of debt - to - income ratios.
Instead, the company's current crisis is largely the result
of a common entrepreneurial mistake: too much
debt and unchecked
growth.
But with low - as - you - can - go -
growth, mounds
of debt, throngs
of unemployed youth and a rising tide
of Euroskepticism, the European Union, to put it kindly, is still in a tough spot.
Premier Clark spent the election campaign expounding her dream
of a
debt - free B.C. fueled by resource - driven economic
growth.
Critics routinely point out that overall levels
of debt are still rising, and that the talked - about «deleveraging» should more accurately be described as a slowdown in credit
growth.
Burgeoning levels
of student loan
debt could slow down economic
growth over time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday.
In a recent commentary, he notes U.S.
debt as a percentage
of GDP has already seen exponential
growth in the past two years, after climbing steadily since 2000.
The move would fly in the face
of the Chinese government's mission to bring down the country's soaring
debt as the country finds itself reliant on leveraged
growth.
The U.S.'s increasing
debt - driven mode
of growth will erode the federal government's solvency, the agency said.
Subjects touched upon by Poloz during his speech and the ensuing round
of questions also included fostering ties with the emerging economies
of India, China, and Brazil, and the
growth in household
debt among Canadians.
In the absence
of positive developments that shore up investor sentiment, such as a resumption
of growth or rapid progress in achieving fiscal consolidation objectives, neither
of which is likely in the current environment, the government is likely to become increasingly constrained with regard to the terms under which it is able to refinance maturing
debt.
Indeed, a recent paper by IHS concluded that spending on production
growth in the U.S. from 2009 through 2013 had exceeded cash flow by an astounding $ 272 billion — and at least 40 %
of that was raised by taking on
debt.
Of course, rock - bottom rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
Of course, rock - bottom rates and a strong Canadian dollar, he added, are the opposite
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable growth model fuelled by exports and business investmen
of what the Canadian economy needs right now in order to kick its current addiction to household
debt and condos and switch to a more sustainable
growth model fuelled by exports and business investment.
That investment structure ended up being in the form
of subordinated
debt, a solution that allowed Assell and GolfTEC to rapidly increase the company's
growth.
Enthusiasm for auto
debt comes at a time when aggregate
growth of mortgages, credit cards, lines
of credit and other forms
of borrowing has slowed.
«It is a way
of obtaining capital without adding
debt or diluting SoftBank «s equity interests in the
growth companies.»
«We're in a very positive situation economically, with more Canadians working, with a strong level
of growth, and we'll continue to have an approach to fiscal conservatism that shows a declining
debt - to - GDP over time,» said Morneau.
The «static» score
of the bill — the amount
of projected
debt added when economic
growth is not factored in — shows that the deficit would grow by about $ 1.5 trillion in the decade after the bill is implemented.
At the end
of the day, though, the biggest threat to Canada might likely come not from financial markets, but from what a
debt ceiling breach would do to U.S. consumer and business confidence and thus the pace
of growth south
of the border.
The Eurozone crisis could be ended tomorrow if the European Central Bank (ECB) announced it was going to launch a mammoth campaign to continue buying the bonds
of troubled members
of the European Community (EC) until
growth in EC output and employment bailed them out
of their
debt burdens.
For the past seven years,
growth has serially disappointed - sometimes spectacularly, as in the depths
of the global financial and euro crises; more often than not grindingly as past
debts weigh on activity
Earnings before interest, taxes and one - time items rose 20 % to 4.13 billion kroner ($ 652 million), beating estimates
of 3.82 billion kroner Sales rose 2 % on a basis that excludes currency and acquisition effects, compared with analysts projections for
growth of 3.2 %
Debt reduced by 14 % to 21.9 billion kroner Carlsberg reduced its full - year forecast for gains from currency shifts to 50 million kroner from 300 million kroner.
So the
growth rate
of the 19 years that England is above 90 percent
debt - to - GDP are averaged into one number.