Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction, and Regional and Societal Impact
of Decadal Climate Variability
During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science
of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human - caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps.
Evidence
of decadal climate prediction skill resulting from changes in anthropogenic forcing
One of the objectives was to provide evidence
of the decadal climate variability and predictability in the Nordic Region with the aim to assess the impact on forest growth, and energy production and demand.
The coordination of the scientific and practical aspects
of decadal climate prediction research within WCRP is undertaken by the DCPP Panel under the guidance of the Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP).
This work is supported through NSF Award No. 1049219, Investigation
of Decadal Climate Predictability and Hydroclimate impacts (IDCPI) on the Western US.
There is currently less skill in predicting precipitation and other variables compared to temperature although progress is expected to be made as a consequence
of the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) and other projects and investigations.
Component C, Predictability, mechanisms, and case studies: the organization and coordination
of decadal climate predictability studies and of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours
An improved dynamical understanding of how the tropical Pacific Ocean transitions into hiatus events, including its seasonal structure, may help to improve future prediction
of decadal climate variations.
Towards Prediction
of Decadal Climate Variability and Change James Murphy, Vladimir Kattsov, Noel Keenlyside, Masahide Kimoto, Gerald Meehl, Vikram Mehta, Holger Pohlmann, Adam Scaife, Doug Smith
«NASA's examination of ocean observations has provided its own unique contribution to our knowledge
of decadal climate trends and global warming,» said Veronica Nieves, a researcher at JPL and the University of California, Los Angeles and co-author of the new study.
The recognition
of decadal climate shifts are an example of better science — the new paradigm of dynamical complexity in climate.
Cloud changes are the biggest source
of decadal climate change in the record.
Back around 2007/8, two high - profile papers claimed to produce, for the first time, skilful predictions
of decadal climate change, based on new techniques of ocean state initialization in climate models.
Not exact matches
A new report by the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine finds that continuity
of ocean observations is vital to gain an accurate understanding
of the
climate, and calls for a
decadal, national plan that is adequately resourced and implemented to ensure critical ocean information is available to understand and predict future changes.
The value
of this information is illustrated by the results
of a study published May 19 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters by Oster's group, working with colleagues from the Berkeley Geochronology Center, the Smithsonian Institution National Museum
of Natural History and the University
of Cambridge titled «Northeast Indian stalagmite records Pacific
decadal climate change: Implications for moisture transport and drought in India.»
This variability includes the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - lived El Niño - like pattern
of Pacific
climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean.
The middle globe shows a drop in levels west
of Mexico, due to a cyclical
climate variation called the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.
Goddard thinks it may be an early indication
of a big shift in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a kind
of long - term El Niño - like pattern
of climate variability.
The working group on coupled biogeochemical cycling and controlling factors dealt with questions regarding the role
of plankton diversity, how ocean biogeochemistry will respond to global changes on
decadal to centennial time scales, the key biogeochemical links between the ocean, atmosphere, and
climate, and the role
of estuaries, shelves, and marginal seas in the capturing, transformation, and exchange
of terrestrial and open - marine material.
Under the
Decadal and Regional
Climate Prediction Using Earth System Models (EaSM) program, the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Departments
of Agriculture and Energy will kick in a total
of $ 50 million a year for 5 years.
The study stops short
of attributing California's latest drought to changes in Arctic sea ice, partly because there are other phenomena that play a role, like warm sea surface temperatures and changes to the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, an atmospheric
climate pattern that typically shifts every 20 to 30 years.
Combining the STORM model with analysis
of the rainfall data set allowed the investigators to gain insights into
decadal trends in monsoonal rainfall intensity under
climate change.
For
climate scientists, a major question is whether the coming event will be big enough to flip the world into the warm phase
of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a 20 - to 30 - year
climate cycle that is related to El Niño or La Niña conditions.
He thinks their movement may be an early indication
of a big shift in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long - term pattern
of climate variability.
Nearly 20 years ago, researcher Nate Mantua (now at NOAA) and co-authors published a paper that revealed a close link between the survival
of Pacific salmon and an inter-
decadal climate phenomenon they dubbed the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Among the scientific advances that will be required is better integration
of weather and
climate models to improve
decadal climate information to help people plan,» Moss said.
Nieves said an example is the U.S. West Coast, where the phase
of a multi-
decadal ocean
climate pattern called the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation has helped keep sea level rise lower during the past two decades.
On
decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns
of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
climate variability, such as the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in
Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling
Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).
New research published this week in the Journal
of Climate reveals that one key measurement — large - scale upper - ocean temperature changes caused by natural cycles
of the ocean — is a good indicator
of regional coastal sea level changes on these
decadal timescales.
Long - term (
decadal and multi-
decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting
climate conditions; the influence
of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.
On shorter time scales, and layered on top
of Pacific
Decadal Oscillation variation, the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycles (see
Climate chapter) can also affect variation in snowpack.
-- The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation is a pattern
of ocean - atmospheric
climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific Ocean.
Shuman, C.A. and C.R. Stearns,
Decadal - length composite inland West Antarctic temperature records, Journal
of Climate.
We describe two
of the most important teleconnections for Montana below, the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation.8 It is important to bear in mind that teleconnections are happening continually, and superimposed on each other as well as upon other long - term
climate patterns.
The Pacific
Decadal Oscillation is a pattern
of ocean - atmospheric
climate variability across the mid-latitude Pacific Ocean.
Decadal variability is a notable feature
of the Atlantic Ocean and the
climate of the regions it influences.
In this study, we undertake another effort towards understanding the role
of the Sun in changing or varying the Earth's
climate on seasonal to
decadal time scale.
Annual and
decadal climate forcing
of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA.
It is important to note that any potential effects will be spatially and temporally variable, depending on current forest conditions, local site characteristics, environmental influences, and annual and
decadal patterns
of climate variability, such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle, which can drive regional weather and
climate conditions.
And he said it can be difficult to factor the effects
of the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) into any
climate studies, given that «high quality data» exists for fewer than two
of its complete oscillations.
The rate
of release from the tundra alone is predicted to reach 1.5 billion tons
of carbon per annum before 2030, contributing to accelerated
climate change, perhaps resulting in sustained
decadal doubling
of ice loss causing collapse
of the Greenland Ice Sheet (Hansen et al, 2011).
Allan, R.P., and A. Slingo, 2002: Can current
climate forcings explain the spatial and temporal signatures
of decadal OLR variations?
Nate, a member
of the FI Board
of Directors, is the leader for the Landscape Ecology Team at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and has expertise about
decadal - scale
climate variability and ecosystem regime shifts.
Over the last 30 years
of direct satellite observation
of the Earth's
climate, many natural influences including orbital variations, solar and volcanic activity, and oceanic conditions like El Nino (ENSO) and the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have either had no effect or promoted cooling conditions.
That's largely because
of the effects
of a slow - moving ocean cycle, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, which influences the global
climate.
Though the ecological effects
of these
climate oscillations have been described in various settings, the influence
of decadal indices to long - term marine turtle population trends is largely unexplored.
Using the adjoint
of an ocean general circulation model, I try to understand the local and remote processes that generate temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas on different timescales and their potential contribution to
decadal climate predictability.
His research concerns understanding global
climate and its variations using observations and covers the quasi biennial oscillation, Pacific
decadal oscillation and the annular modes
of the Arctic oscillation and the Antarctic oscillation, and the dominant spatial patterns in month - to - month and year - to - year
climate variability, including the one through which El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific influences
climate over North America.
It is the top priority
of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our
climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal,
decadal and even
climate change projections.