But increasingly, economists and other analysts are expressing concern that the United States could be edging closer to a different problem — the kind
of deflationary trap that cost Japan more than a decade of growth and economic progress.
Because
of this deflationary nature (among other factors), the value of bitcoin is going up over time and will eventually reach the level at which even a single Satoshi will be too valuable to transact with.
This time around bonds are pricing in an extended period
of deflationary depression.
That trend towards higher inflation expectations continued into U.S. inflation expectations, indicating that the ECB QE announcement, and coincident with tentative signs of stabilization of oil prices, may mark the low point
of deflationary fears driving global interest rates to new lows.
While the remedies announced so far have lacked sufficient magnitude individually to have a noticeable impact, in aggregate they could help to dispel
some of the deflationary pressures weighing on the region.
This time around bonds are pricing in an extended period
of deflationary depression.
Trying to dig a country out
of a deflationary hole can be quite difficult.
Earlier fears
of a deflationary spiral appear to have been allayed, but with a considerable output gap to close, there is little prospect of demand - induced price rises for some time.
«In the current situation, a further appreciation of the Swiss franc would constitute a very substantial threat to the Swiss economy, and would carry with it the risk
of deflationary developments,» Jordan said at a conference in Zurich today.
Either deflation's growing momentum will pull today's faltering economies into the ever - growing maw
of a deflationary collapse or the continued printing of money to stave off such a collapse will end with the complete debasement of paper currencies in a hyperinflationary blowoff.
Cover Story The decline in eurozone prices is the most dramatic example
of deflationary pressures afflicting the globe.
I noted that the Italian BOND FUTURES Monday were trading above the June 27 close when ECB President Mario Draghi roiled global credit markets with his Sintra, Portugal speech, which suggested that the removal
of a deflationary scare would allow the ECB to begin tapering its QE program.
This is important progress and has contributed to more prudent monetary policies than otherwise would have been made and the avoidance
of a deflationary psychology taking hold particularly in Europe and Japan.
While we anticipate that
some of these deflationary influences could level off, there are emerging new disruptive forces that will likely cap significant inflation acceleration.
Ethereum on the other hand has no maximum supply, and is capped at an annual rate of 18 million ether — meaning that the purchasing power
of a deflationary currency (bitcoin) is expected to rise over time, whereas the value of an inflationary currency (ether) will drop.
If markets believe that the threat
of a deflationary spiral is mitigated by a recovery in demand, profits and tax revenues, many risk premia will compress.
But economists worry that the commodity mess reflects a weakening global economy, lowering the value of trade worldwide and perhaps even pushing some countries into the same kind
of deflationary spiral that has hampered the Japanese economy for decades.
All are struggling due to low oil prices — some directly because of lower revenues, and others because
of deflationary pressure.
If the public starts to doubt, it may demand higher wages or payments to compensate for expected price increases, or delay investments or purchases in anticipation
of deflationary pressures.
Not exact matches
Hartnett warns «
deflationary» behavior may be required to stop the escalation
of a trade war — which would mean lower stock prices and lower yields.
meaning a wage - price
deflationary spiral becomes a significant possibility — especially with an implacable austerity faction in control
of one House
of Congress.
«Deflation won't be eradicated unless the BOJ sets a clear price - stability target
of around 2 percent and eliminates
deflationary expectations with relentless monetary easing.»
He compares it o changing seasons, with the first half (spring and summer) a period
of growth, followed by a plateau
of contentment (autumn), then a
deflationary depression (winter).
And that has
deflationary consequences, as people reduce spending in other areas to take care
of the necessity.
However, since the Bank
of Canada has a 2 % inflation target, it can not not allow these
deflationary pressures to go unanswered.
However, the Bank
of Canada was able to maintain this level
of monetary growth post-2002 thanks to the
deflationary pressures put on the Canadian economy as a result
of the high dollar.
We should expect the Bank
of Canada to respond to these
deflationary pressures by increasing the money supply.
Lakos - Bujas said he and his team view «normalizing inflation and declining global
deflationary risks as a positive for equities at this stage
of the cycle, and believe there has been some overreaction to inflation headlines lately.»
Other reasons for an increase include heading off a
deflationary debt spiral, and conversely, the risk
of very high inflation.
In response to the
deflationary pressures on the CPI, the Bank
of Canada will be forced to engage in expansionary monetary policy to counteract the 5 % price drop (while also ensuring the 2 % year - over-year increase in prices continues as planned).
Pushback: customers are consolidating vendors, not unbundling: Yes, we agree that firms find it preferable to have one vendor instead
of five or more (one party to deal with, could minimize risk, etc), but we don't believe that this disputes our
deflationary thesis.
A 5 % fall (or more accurately, the
deflationary pressures that would cause a 5 % fall) in the CPI clearly violates the mandate
of the Bank
of Canada:
As a result, we anticipate that firms may increasingly try to minimize their market data costs by turning to lite versions
of existing terminals or piece together newly available alternatives — a trend we view as
deflationary for the industry.
«The current bull market is not going to end simply because «stocks have gone up too much»... The buyside is fairly cautious, seeing downside stemming from: (i)
deflationary pressures
of the 40 % year - over-year oil decline, deceleration in China, Eurozone weakness, and the fall in 5 - year inflation breakevens; and (ii) Fed monetary tightening... Capital stock is again showing signs
of pent - up demand, and as a consequence, companies and households will have to invest.
For what it's worth though, seems to me the liquidity trap / demand slump story is a better description
of reality, it's not clear why your story would produce disinflation /
deflationary pressures.
The renminbi was up despite mounting fears that China might have embarked on a devaluation track
of its currency to help stabilize the local export sector, along with alleviate
deflationary pressure and incentivize inbound tourism.
As
of this writing the RMB has depreciated by too small an amount to matter much, but assuming that it had depreciated by a lot more, would this add to global
deflationary pressures?
Finally, some
of the observations above re the
deflationary bias suggest that interest rates may well be too low when we hit the next recession to give the Fed much
of a perch to climb down from.
The ECB enters 2018 after engineering a shift to a lower level
of quantitative easing, while managing to limit a
deflationary rise in the euro.
In
deflationary environments, as the dollar becomes more valuable and the prices
of assets collapse, investors can be slaughtered.
The more credit creation takes the form
of inflating asset prices — rather than financing purchases
of goods and services or direct investment employing labor — the more
deflationary its effects are on the «real» economy
of production and consumption.
A depreciating RMB causes the price
of Chinese goods to fall, and so lower prices add to
deflationary pressures.
In the US and Europe,
deflationary pressures increase the ability
of central banks to loosen monetary conditions, and because too many economists assume too easily that what is likely to be true in the US must be true everywhere,
deflationary pressures in China are unleashing calls for lower interest rates and greater credit expansion in China.
In a
deflationary environment unless productivity growth rates are high, it is very difficult to keep the value
of assets rising in line with the value
of debt.
Since the end
of the 2007 - 2008 financial crisis, lackluster economic growth and
deflationary pressures have forced many central banks to confront the limitations
of conventional monetary policy.
The combination
of very high levels
of debt and excess manufacturing capacity can lock an economy into a self - reinforcing
deflationary process in which growth stagnates and debt rises faster than debt servicing capacity.
How long it takes for China to overcome
deflationary pressures depends, I think, really on two very different sets
of policies.
Proponents
of Bitcoin claim that it is a «
deflationary currency.»
The signs are everywhere
of a serious
deflationary crisis.
An expansion
of currency held by the non-bank public is
deflationary.