You can't fake spring coming earlier, or trees growing higher up on mountains, or glaciers retreating for kilometres up valleys, or shrinking ice cover in the Arctic, or birds changing their migration times, or permafrost melting in Alaska, or the tropics expanding, or ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula breaking up, or peak river flow occurring earlier in summer because
of earlier snowmelt, or sea level rising faster and faster, or any of the thousands of similar examples.
The reason I say that is that Revkin apparently didn't find reason enough to report on the Bush administration's firing of my brother, after I had sent him the documentation that accompanied NOAA's removal of my brother from the National Weather Service for his 2003 press release documenting the effects
of early snowmelt and spring flooding on Midwest flood prone areas, unquestionably due to anthropogenic global warming.
Not exact matches
Changes in flow patterns
of warm Pacific Ocean air from the south were driving
earlier spring
snowmelt, while decreasing summer sea ice had the greatest influence on later onset
of snowpack in the fall.
Overall, aquatic ecosystems in western North America are predicted to experience increasingly
earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, warmer and drier summers, and increased water temperatures — all
of which spell increased hybridization between these species.
Researchers have evaluated different mechanisms that could account for declining snowpack in a warming world:
earlier onset
of snowmelt, a change in melt rates and shifts from snow to rain under certain conditions.
The trends driven by
earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much in line with the projections
of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer
of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.
«Since the precipitation is likely to fall as snow this could mean either
earlier or later timing
of snowmelt.»
Mark Flanner, an assistant professor at the University
of Michigan who did not participate in the research, said that several factors could reduce albedo
of existing ice, including
earlier snowmelt and melt ponds on top
of the ice.
Melting glaciers,
early snowmelt, and severe droughts will cause more dramatic water shortages and increase the risk
of wildfires in the American West.
Stone, R.S., E.G. Dutton, J.M. Harris, and D. Longnecker, 2002:
Earlier spring
snowmelt in northern Alaska as an indicator
of climate change.
Across Montana, conditions that lead to high fire risk (i.e., likelihood
of occurrence) are becoming more common: seasonal maximum temperatures are increasing,
snowmelt is occurring
earlier, minimum relative humidities are decreasing, and fuels are becoming drier (Jolly et al. 2015; Seager et al. 2015).
These tend to be years with
earlier onset
of spring, specifically
earlier snowmelt.
The
snowmelt was a full 10 days ahead
of the previous
earliest instance, in 2002.
The years with the
earliest spring
snowmelt, which was one - third
of the total number
of years we studied, account for more than 70 percent
of the area burned in large forest wildfires, and 43 percent
of the area burned in nonforest fires.
Forests that historically had large areas with no snow on the ground for two to four months and high moisture loss from soils and vegetation in spring and summer have seen the biggest increases in wildfire in
early spring
snowmelt years (for example, the northern Rockies and parts
of the Sierra Nevada).
One more step: The unprecedented
early snowmelt in the north is an extra source
of heat, which helps enhance a high pressure ridge aloft.
... «Conclusions on the Timing
of Snowmelt Runoff and Humidity 1) Trends were shown for recent earlier in the year annual snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper
Snowmelt Runoff and Humidity 1) Trends were shown for recent
earlier in the year annual
snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper
snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.
These include millions
of trees killed in recent years by beetles that prefer warmer weather, and declines in spring soil moisture brought on by
earlier snowmelt.
The Northern Rocky Mountain forests are particularly sensitive to the changes brought by a warming climate and
earlier spring
snowmelt, said A. LeRoy Westerling, co-director
of the Sierra Nevada Research Institute at the University
of California, Merced.
This urban heat island has benefits for the residents, e.g., it has led to a 9 % reduction in the number
of freezing degree days and
earlier snowmelt in the town.
Likely aggravating factors included
snowmelt from the warm temperatures
of the event and already - saturated soils from heavy rains several weeks
earlier.
A strong
snowmelt in late April /
early May and torrential rains in late May /
early June could have been caused by the occurrence
of persistent quasibarotropic high - amplitude QRA structures with zonal wave numbers m = 6 and m = 7 in the field
of the NH midlatitude meridional velocity.
In addition, climate change is very likely to lead to more frequent extreme heat events and daily precipitation extremes over most areas
of North America, more frequent low snow years, and shifts towards
earlier snowmelt runoff over much
of the western US and Canada (high confidence).
But
snowmelt water is seasonal, and the price - reducing effect
of hydropower lasts only a few months a year, typically in late spring and
early summer.
The two interior sites are projected to retain the characteristics
of a nival regime by mid-century, although streamflow - timing shifts result from increased mid-winter rainfall and
snowmelt, and
earlier freshet onset.
There has been a trend toward
earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins
of snowy areas.
For instance,
earlier snowmelt may not change the total quantity
of water available but can lead to
earlier runoff that is out
of phase with peak water demand in the summer.
Because
of its cold - adapted features and rapid warming, climate change impacts on Alaska are already pronounced, including
earlier spring
snowmelt, reduced sea ice, widespread glacier retreat, warmer permafrost, drier landscapes, and more extensive insect outbreaks and wildfire, as described below.
Earlier snowmelt, associated with warmer temperatures, can lead to water supply being increasingly out
of phase with water demands.
Forest Service chief Thomas Tidwell told Congress two years ago that his agency faces conditions
of higher temperatures,
earlier mountain
snowmelt, and much longer fire seasons, which «our scientists believe... is due to a change in climate.»
The ensemble mean
of the MMD models projects a general decrease in snow depth (Chapter 10) as a result
of delayed autumn snowfall and
earlier spring
snowmelt.
Melting glaciers,
early snowmelt, and severe droughts will cause more dramatic water shortages and increase the risk
of wildfires in the American West.
Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor
of earth sciences from Purdue University, published a much - noticed article in Geophysical Research Letters a few months ago in which he predicted that spring
snowmelt could start 2 months
earlier by 2100.
By 2100, spring
snowmelt could begin up to 2 months
earlier in the western U.S. (see here for a description
of the image).
The beginning
of the snow accumulation season (the end
of the
snowmelt season) is projected to be later (
earlier), and the fractional snow coverage is projected to decrease during the snow season (Hosaka et al., 2005).