The 2007 bear market and 1987 crash were preceded by clear signs
of economic deterioration, particularly in the housing market (Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, Pending Sales).
The Brazil that was immune to the effects of the global crisis of 2008 shows at present signs
of economic deterioration characterized by low GDP growth and the return of inflation, which could mean the existence of a process of economic stagnation with inflation (stagflation).
Child Abuse Declines Nationally in Spite
of Economic Deterioration Child abuse declined nationally in 2008 compared to 2007, according to a new report by the Crimes against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire.
Not exact matches
Despite a years - long political and
economic deterioration and months
of violence, Maduro has maintained about 20 % support among Venezuelans, but his constituent assembly has been rejected by an overwhelming majority
of the country and drawn international rebuke.
Using the sensitivity analysis provided by the Department
of Finance in the April Budget, a reduction in real
economic growth
of 0.6 percentage point would result in
deterioration in the budget balance
of approximately $ 2.5 billion in 2015 - 16.
For example, in the fall
of 2008, Taylor Rule prescriptions were well above the level
of rates that was appropriate given the sharp and persistent
deterioration in the
economic outlook and the sharp tightening in financial conditions that occurred during that period.
All
of this is very much in line with the
deterioration that we've observed for months in leading measures
of economic activity.
With the S&P 500 within about 8 %
of its highest level in history, with historically reliable valuation measures at obscene levels, implying near - zero 10 - 12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns; with an extended period
of extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions replaced by
deterioration in market internals that signal a clear shift toward risk - aversion among investors; with credit spreads on low - grade debt blowing out to multi-year highs; and with leading
economic measures deteriorating rapidly, we continue to classify market conditions within the most hostile return / risk profile we identify — a classification that has been observed in only about 9 %
of history.
My interpretation is that we may be on the cusp
of a fresh
deterioration in
economic conditions and an acceleration in defaults.
With debt already higher as a share
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) than at any time other than the aftermath
of World War II, this new debt is likely to slow
economic growth and hasten the country's fiscal
deterioration.
As I've frequently emphasized, the earliest indications
of an oncoming
economic shift are usually observable in the financial markets, particularly in growing
deterioration across broad market internals, and widening credit spreads between debt securities
of varying creditworthiness.
I'll emphasize again that while I do view the
economic picture as being consistent with progressive
deterioration and a growing risk
of recession, there is presently not enough evidence to expect a U.S. recession.
As I noted last week, the average historical outcome
of similar combinations has been negative, largely because the
deterioration in
economic pressures tends to trump technical action even when it has been more favorable than it is at present.
In the sequence
of economic events that normally precede an
economic downturn, our expectation is that real income — not yet employment — is most likely the next
economic measure that is vulnerable to
deterioration.
With the
deterioration in the
economic outlook since the April 2016 with deficits now projected over the forecast period, the deficit will be well above the $ 10 billion
of promised policy initiatives in 2016 - 17.
[The] report served the time - tested purpose: Whenever the system is in crisis (or shows signs
of becoming transformed); whenever blacks get restless (or show strength); whenever whites in significant numbers show signs
of coming together with blacks to confront their mutual problems (or enemies), the trick is to shift the focus from the real struggle for political and
economic empowerment to black «crime,» degeneracy, pathology, and — in Moynihan's innovative twist — the «
deterioration»
of the black family.
It has to be recognized that the
deterioration of conditions and the process
of mass marginalization produced by the globalization
of the
economic model is producing a certain amount
of demoralization in certain Third World areas and that some too sanguine expectations
of the Sixties and Seventies have to be reassessed.
This patience, which is complemented by a gritty determination to see real legal and
economic reforms take hold, is all the more striking in that Ukraine must confront daily the cultural and social
deterioration created by the sad reality
of Homo Sovieticus: men and women who grew up under a brutal political system that was built on falsehoods, that maintained itself through terror, and that taught everyone that trust in another human being can be very costly.
To these changes from the nineteenth century world, with which the expansion
of the influence
of Jesus had been intimately connected, has been added a
deterioration in
economic conditions which has undercut the financial support
of the churches and their missions.
The
economic theory on which this plan is based is highly - contentious and given the continuance
of the
deterioration in the nation's (and Europe's) finances, it is being challenged by the alternative strategies like never before.
An experiment in government consolidation has failed in central New York — a victim
of a difference
of opinion over how to create jobs and promote
economic growth in Syracuse and Onondaga County and the continued
deterioration of the relationship between the mayor and county executive.
Some argued that the ancients were felled by a wave
of foreign invaders or a
deterioration of trade routes that led to
economic failure.
Credit ratings and pricing
of the Company's investments can be negatively affected by liquidity, credit
deterioration, financial results,
economic risk, political risk, sovereign risk or other factors.
The stimulus package is designed to generate
economic activity to prevent further
deterioration of the severely contracted U.S. economy.
Moody's, another major credit rating company, said back in August that the U.S. could see a downgrade from their institution before 2013 if it observes «(1) any weakening
of fiscal discipline between now and then or (2) a significant
deterioration in the
economic outlook resulting in adverse fiscal implications that are not offset.»
There are no signs
of sustained
economic deterioration right now, but the economy's growth rate can not really pick up.
Overall, my impression is that the near - term dynamics
of the market are likely to be dominated by this sort
of speculative trend following activity - primarily because it will probably still take another 4 - 8 weeks until sensitive coincident
economic measures (such as ISM figures and new claims for unemployment) begin to predictably reflect the
deterioration we've seen in various composites
of leading indicators.
* I am watching out for signs
of significant and sustained
economic deterioration because I think this bull market only has 1 - 2 years left.
And there's the other side
of the see - saw: Consider the potential impact
of the ECB's actions to date, and its capacity to respond to further market /
economic turmoil and / or
deterioration...
There may be a small trading market for a particular convertible security at any given time, which may adversely impact market price and a fund's ability to liquidate a particular security or respond to an
economic event, including
deterioration of an issuer's creditworthiness.
We know from our analysis
of climate change, from the accelerating
deterioration of the economy's ecological supports, and from our projections
of future resource use that the western
economic model — the fossil - fuel - based, automobile - centered, throwaway economy — will not last much longer.
«If we have not succeeded by 2030,» says Lester Brown, president
of Worldwatch, «environmental
deterioration and
economic decline will be feeding on each other, causing social structures to disintegrate.»
Further, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) defines land degradation as a reduction or loss in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas
of the biological or
economic productivity and complexity
of rain - fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or range, pasture, forest and woodlands resulting from land uses or from a process or combination
of processes, including those arising from human activities and habitation patterns, such as: (i) soil erosion caused by wind and / or water; (ii)
deterioration of the physical, chemical, and biological or
economic properties
of soil; and (iii) long - term loss
of natural vegetation.
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defines land degradation as a reduction or loss in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas,
of the biological or
economic productivity and complexity
of rain - fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or range, pasture, forest, and woodlands resulting from land uses or from a process or combination
of processes, including processes arising from human activities and habitation patterns, such as (i) soil erosion caused by wind and / or water; (ii)
deterioration of the physical, chemical and biological or
economic properties
of soil; and (iii) long - term loss
of natural vegetation.
Climate impact concerns include environmental quality (e.g., more ozone, water - logging or salinisation), linkage systems (e.g., threats to water and power supplies), societal infrastructures (e.g., changed energy / water / health requirements, disruptive severe weather events, reductions in resources for other social needs and maintaining sustainable livelihoods, environmental migration (Box 7.2), placing blame for adverse effects, changes in local ecologies that undermine a sense
of place), physical infrastructures (e.g., flooding, storm damage, changes in the rate
of deterioration of materials, changed requirements for water or energy supply), and
economic infrastructures and comparative advantages (e.g., costs and / or risks increased, markets or competitors affected).
Among the likely adverse consequences for these communities are: exacerbation
of already overcrowded Indigenous communities (including in the larger settlements),
deterioration in health status, and relocation
of some people to the fringes
of rural and regional towns where social and
economic opportunities are more limited.
The slowdown in
economic growth is not indicative
of a significant
deterioration in the underlying strength
of economic activity, but a fading inventory boost to GDP growth.