On the prospect of recession, I'm reasonably well - known as one of the only economists who correctly warned in real - time of oncoming recessions in October 2000 and again in November 2007 — both points where the consensus
of economic forecasters indicated no expectation of oncoming trouble at all.
Not exact matches
Wild swings in the markets have caught many veteran
economic forecasters off - guard, but a group
of Canadian CEOs weighed in recently with their views on exchange rates and inflation in a poll conducted by COMPAS Inc..
Republicans talk
of sparking
economic growth rates in the range
of four per cent, but models run by non-partisan
forecasters, such as the Wharton business school at the University
of Pennsylvania, predict only a modest increase over the shorter term.
Forecaster are split on whether or not the Bank
of England will raise rates from 0.5 % to 0.75 % in May, but the latest positive
economic data seems to make that increase more likely.
A major shift in a country's terms -
of - trade is one
of the most complex situations an
economic forecaster can face.
Most
forecasters update their forecasts on a quarterly basis, following the release
of the Canadian
economic accounts by Statistics Canada (first quarter results published in May, second quarterly results in August, third quarter results in November and fourth quarter and preliminary estimate for year as a whole in February
of the following year).
In the Ernst & Young study, the Department
of Finance consistently was ranked as one
of the top
economic forecasters.
Since the April Budget, private sector
forecasters have revised down their forecasts
of economic growth by about one percentage point.
The PBO used the
economic projections from the Department
of Finance's December 2010 survey
of private sector
forecasters [2], released on February 1, 2011.
You will soon be meeting with your group
of private sector
forecasters to get their view
of economic prospects.
Private sector
forecasters, the IMF and the Bank
of Canada have all revised down their forecasts
of economic growth by about one percentage point.
Private sector
forecasters always forecast that the economy will recover strongly, partly because that is the way their
economic models work, and partly because that is what their clients want to hear, including the Minister
of Finance.
In Budget 2010, there were only three
forecasters (Conference Board
of Canada, Global Insight and the University
of Toronto) that had large - scale econometric models capable
of providing medium - term
economic forecastst.
By the end
of this decade, many
forecasters believe we will see greater
economic growth coming from a combined India, China, Brazil and Russia, than from the established economies
of the US, Canada and Europe.
Chris Martenson,
economic researcher, trend
forecaster, The Crash Course author, and founder
of Peak Prosperity, discusses the eight forms
of capital you need to become resilient to crisis, how the financial system scams hapless investors, and why gold will get much more valuable once the next oil crisis hits.
Currently the fall Update and the Budget
economic forecasts are based on the average growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment rate forecasts
of a select group
of private sector
economic forecasters.
However the Department
of Finance interprets the lower deficit outcome for 2010 - 11, it would not be possible to offset the impact
of slower
economic growth now expected for this year and 2012, by the Bank
of Canada, the IMF, the OECD and all private
forecasters.
Since the April Budget, private sector
forecasters, the IMF, the OECD, and the Bank
of Canada have revised down their forecasts
of economic growth by about one percentage point.
Chad Moutray is chief economist for the National Association
of Manufacturers (NAM) and the Director
of the Center for Manufacturing Research for The Manufacturing Institute, where he serves as the NAM's
economic forecaster and spokesperson on
economic issues.
The index «was a hodge - podge
of numbers,» says historian Walter Friedman, author
of «Fortune Tellers: The Story
of America's First
Economic Forecasters.»
Not only history but also political and
economic circumstances in recent months, and especially current polls for individual Senate races suggest the Republicans have, according to the main
forecasters, at least a two - thirds chance
of achieving a Senate majority.
Also at 1 p.m., Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell speaks on the
economic outlook and monetary policy at a
Forecaster's Club
of New York Luncheon, The Cornell Club New York, 6 E. 44th St., Manhattan.
These findings may help policy - makers and
economic forecasters adjust their predictions for the total impact
of Alzheimer's disease and other conditions.
Apartment building investments are a top choice according to Gary Shilling, one
of the world's foremost
economic forecasters, a long - time Forbes columnist, publisher
of Insight Newsletter with his editor Fred Rossi, and author
of «The Age
of Deleveraging,» (http://amzn.to/L9hm7W on Amazon) the perfect playbook for America's new Age
of Austerity.
In his book The Fortune Sellers, researcher William Sherden examined 25 years
of market calls and
economic forecasts and concluded that, as a group, they were no better than guesses, and no
forecaster demonstrated consistent accuracy.
The signal inputs are daily news events like unemployment data, that
economic forecasters use to predict the future
of various asset class movement.
How do you account in your model for the findings
of multiple researchers that, despite all the work undertaken by those
forecasters, their forecasts are too optimistic (see, for example, Roy Batchelor's «Bias in macro
economic forecasts,» McKinsey's «Equity Analysts Are Still Too Bullish» — be sure to check out Exhibit 2, which is absolute shocker — and more recently JP Morgan Asset Management's March 2013 chart in my post)?
Economic forecasters are already banking on China's 1.6 billion populace and its new class
of freshly minted millionaires to boost the revenues
of industries ranging from luxury cars to portable music players.
Economic forecasters generally agree; some predict Newfoundland's 2013 growth will be the highest
of any province thanks to increased oil production and mining output.
Economic forecasters predict that virtually all of the 31 countries included in the Index will experience positive economic growth
Economic forecasters predict that virtually all
of the 31 countries included in the Index will experience positive
economic growth
economic growth in 2014.
As one
of the country's most accurate
economic forecasters, Smith doesn't have to fight for the ear
of the country's top policy makers and opinion leaders.