At first sight this seems to support the
notion of efficient markets where professionals are unable to generate excess risk adjusted returns.
These large bubbles and crashes in the absence of significant changes in valuation cast doubt on the
assumption of efficient markets that incorporate all public information accurately.
I can't remember correct
definition of efficient market but it's something like, price reflect value, based on a current known variable, s and possible future variables.
Neither challenged the theory that the process of diversification can improve the risk / return ratio beyond what was previously available (which is rather
independent of efficient markets).
Note: One of my favorite anecdotes surrounding the efficient market and «luck» discussion is how Paul Samuelson, who won a Nobel Prize and was one of the most vocal advocates
of efficient market theory ended up investing a large amount of his own money with Warren Buffett and got rich in the process!
There are three different
form of efficient market hypothesis which challenges the different strategies in the stock market investing:
The tragedy is that
advocates of the Efficient Market Theory got so hung up on being perceived as having figured out everything there is to know about stock investing that they blinded themselves to the next set of important insights, those that followed from the 1981 discovery by Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller that valuations affect long - term returns.
A few weeks prior, Buffett faced off against Michael Jensen, a professor from the University of Rochester and the
school of efficient markets.
With endorsements from Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, the Chicago Tribune and Money Magazine, the book tackles the investment world from the
perspective of the efficient market theory.
As Mr. Klarman wrote in his recent note, «The inherent
irony of the efficient market theory is that the more people believe in it and correspondingly shun active management, the more inefficient the market is likely to become.»
5) Some commentators complain that the current crisis destroys the
concept of efficient markets, because a trust in markets led us to failure.
The advent of the conduit lender and creation
of an efficient market for commercial mortgage - backed securities (CMBS) in the mid-1990s was supposed to homogenize the commercial real estate lending business.
But if you believe in the magical
world of efficient markets, as Ackman clearly does (with Herbalife, I think he would make the argument that the market is not nearly as efficient), then I guess you could make the case that Valeant's acquisitions costlessly reallocate capital to the most promising new drugs under development.
One of the major sources of information on which the SEC relies to bring enforcement action is investors themselves — another reason that educated and careful investors are so critical to the
functioning of efficient markets.
If the
law of efficient markets is correct, then it is only natural for them to gravitate toward what their true values are.
«The modern financial system seems almost designed for systemic trouble because it continues to rely on VaR (value at risk), carrying the antiquated intellectual
baggage of efficient markets and normal distributions into the world of risk management» Frank Martin
It just seemed to me that the
mechanisms of efficient markets keep bringing us back to the need for «economies of scale» that inevitably flatten the landscape and squeeze out the little, idiosyncratic producers who just won't fit in.
One of his professors, Fischer Black, an economist whose work with Myron Scholes on options led to a Nobel Prize, generally preached the
virtues of the efficient market theory but carries «a handy list of exceptions to EMT.»
The first describes the Austrian view of the operation of markets and its
rejection of Efficient Market Theory, which is relevant given the discussion in the comments on Jim Hodge's guest post several weeks ago:
Warren Buffett's
rebuttal of efficient markets involved the presentation of nine different managers who beat the market over long periods of time.
The firm's bread and butter has long been trading value and momentum together, an idea Asness studied in his dissertation under Eugene Fama, father of modern finance and one of the
co-formulators of the efficient market hypothesis.
For MCT, the proof of the
existence of an efficient market centers on the observation that no individual investor, or institution, has ever outperformed a market, or a benchmark, consistently.
Eugene Fama, the Nobel Prize - winning
creator of the efficient market hypothesis, defines «an «efficient» market as one in which there are large numbers of rational profit - maximizers actively competing, with each trying to predict the future market values of individual securities, and where important current information is almost freely available to all participants.»
As novelist Upton Sinclair, presumably not a
fan of efficient markets, said, «It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!»