Sentences with phrase «of election predictions»

Out of hundreds or thousands of election predictions, there would necessarily be a few good ones, and you cherry - picked the best you know of.

Not exact matches

The stock market, of course, is no reliable oracle — its prediction for the presidential election turned out to be wrong.

The 2016 Best of the Hot List includes ideas from David Dreman on why analysts» predictions are like powerball tickets, insights from Peter Lynch on what investors can learn from the Maya and a discussion of what elections mean for long - term investors.

To determine causality, they investigate stock market futures reactions to betting market predictions of divided versus undivided government during four election nights.

So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction: I love that I am now lumped in with Mr. Barone.

So Flagg Taylor of RICOCHET fame writes in response to my dissing of his very pro-Romney election prediction:

According to Cowley and Stuart's predictions, even if there were no rebellions between now and the next general election you would still see a rebellion rate of 31 %.

The Root MSE tells us that the models are on average 3 to 5 percentage points out on the change in share of the council seats won, which is a big average error for a prediction model when there are thousands of seats up for election.

The unexpected prediction from the deputy prime minister comes amid a storm of activity from Conservative eurosceptics, as the long campaigning season ahead of May's European elections begins in earnest.

Some of you still remember the tension that had built up before the 2015 elections, so much so that doomsday predictions emerged from many quarters including from agencies in the United States that Nigeria would disintegrate in 2015.

I'm not convinced by Jeremy Corbyn's prediction of a general election in 2018.

Next is an article which went against the grain in terms of predictions for the Oldham by - election.

With the failure of traditional forecasting methods to accurately predict the outcomes of the UK General Election of May 2015, can social media based predictions do any better?

Join our panel of politicos, journalists, and bloggers as they share their analysis of the primary season and their predictions for the conventions and general election.

Using the same data a logit regression model improves the predictive power of local elections to tell us who will win the most votes at the next general election, making correct predictions 86.21 % of the time.

However, the unpredictable nature of this primary election has not stopped a seemingly endless array of pundits, wonks, and psychics from bombarding the airwaves with their half - witted predictions.

Election expert Sean Fear offers his predictions for the battles for control of Town Halls taking place in June 2009.

yUnder the circumstances of a very close election, during which the main three party leaders will be under far more scrutiny than ever before, your Scottish prediction seems spot on.

But just as predictions for the national election proved wide of the mark, so did those for the 9,500 local contests.

On turnout, as with a primary, special elections tend to bring out a more involved subset of voters, clouding any apples - to - apples prediction for the next general election.

My prediction is that Ed Balls will hold on with 300 votes and Alan Duncan will do a wild victory jig that is captured on camera by the BBC, becoming one of those iconic election images.

The Liberal Democrats» constituency campaign is already in full election mode, and its staffers and activists are fully aware of the polls» dire predictions.

Additionally, if we use the results of the local elections in 2011, when the Conservatives received 35 % of the vote, Labour 37 % and the Liberal Democrats 15 %, the results of the predictions are very similar.

The Mavens of London research, which was originally reported by Politics.co.uk, combines traditional polling data with information about people's online searches for their local candidates to come up with predictions of the election result.

2) The rise of UKIP at the 2013 local elections dramatically alters the predicted UKIP vote share, lowers both the Conservative and Labour vote shares but also increases the margin of error around the predictions.

Regular readers of Politics in Spires might remember I've dabbled in election prediction before, and so I decided to turn my hand to trying to predict the outcome of the Eastleigh by - election.

Of course using different local election results produces different predictions, but note that for all three parties the confidence intervals of both predictions overlaOf course using different local election results produces different predictions, but note that for all three parties the confidence intervals of both predictions overlaof both predictions overlap.

My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.

Although local election and general election results tend to be quite similar to begin with (the two are 90 % correlated) a statistical prediction might offer a better indicator of what is likely to happen in the future then simply taking the results at face value.

Predicting electoral outcomes is a precarious game, and as the sage of American electoral prediction, Nate Silver, will tell you, this is especially true for British elections.

The following table shows my model based forecast, a 95 % probability prediction range, and the Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher estimates from their analysis of local by - elections.

Bob McCarthy: «In a year marked by less than glamorous elections and predictions of more anemic turnout, Erie County's political contests are still generating intense interest from the most basic standpoint of all: Democrat vs. Republican.»

This prediction takes account of both recent YouGov polling data and the lessons from history about how public opinion moves in the final weeks before general elections.

The tension in the state was further exacerbated by the pro-secessionist group, Indigenous People of Biafra, which issued what seemed to be a fresh threat and prediction that the Anambra governorship election would be bloody.

It's the last set of figures showing Labour in 3rd place if Ed Balls was leader — this is not fantasy land / as per my previous predictions — that is where Labour will be within months of losing the next election (3rd place) before breaking up for good — once again cut and paste!!

The 2015 election result took almost everyone by surprise, with the Conservatives winning a narrow majority despite predictions of another hung parliament or a minority government.

Current predictions by Election Forecast are that it will hold Brighton Pavilions but not secure any more seats, despite possibly capturing 5 % of the overall vote.

If Clegg manages to significantly outperform the worst predictions for the party's general election performance, he may in the process be able to redeem his own performance in government and his project of pulling the party centrewards.

Stay tuned for more of the final week of the race, including a look at labor endorsements and our prediction as primary election day approaches.

The media and the polls predicted a win for UKIP; the turnout was of by - election proportions (34 %); there were only two — linked — issues (Europe and immigration); and the electorate (or that part of it which could be bothered) duly turned out and fulfilled the pundits» predictions.

When host Kwami Sefa Kayi sought to find out the basis of Mr. Pratt's assertions, the latter noted that he is «very good at election prediction.

An Islamic cleric, Sheikh Ustaz Sham - Una Jibril, who is known for his accurate predictions on both local and international issues, has predicted that the Ashanti Region which is known to be the «World Bank» of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will turn into a «Traditional Microfinance» in the 2020 General Elections.

My prediction: either the PVV won't form a coalition, or they will form a short - lived coalition where they will fail miserably and will do poorly the next elections (basically a repeat of what happened in Balkenende I and the LPF, which can be seen as PVV's spiritual predecessor in many ways).

And now the well - connected Tory commentator and former editor of ConservativeHome Tim Montgomerie has weighed in with a prediction that the next election will be in May 2019 — and that Osborne will be a monkey rather than an organ grinder.

Stating that almost all his predictions for 2016 had come to pass, Fayose alleged that there were plans by the Federal Government to place Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State under house arrest on Thursday — two days before the legislative rerun elections in the state.

Last month, in my first election prediction, I expected Labour to stage a partial come - back in Scotland and retain 31 of the 41 seats they won in 2010.

And a final caveat — this is purely a prediction of how the votes would have fallen out if the votes at the last election were counted on the new boundaries.

Considering the accuracy of the predictions of even the most, «accomplished,» pollsters it's probably too early to predict House races very much before election night.

Several polling companies included Ashcroft's polls in their election predictions, though several of the political parties disputed his findings.

In 2016, we examined both the previous midterm of 2014 and presidential elections of 2012 and 2008 in order to make more educated predictions regarding congressional races.