The arithmetic
of eurozone government refinancing needs, relative to the size of the current firewall, looks increasingly unpleasant.
It also appears that the ECB will concentrate on reducing its purchases of government (rather than corporate) bonds, but here issuance is increasing, with the net amount
of eurozone government debt set to expand in 2018, in contrast to the contraction seen over the previous 18 months.
He repeats that the ECB is banned from monetary financing
of eurozone governments.
Not exact matches
The process
of this deal wasn't dissimilar to the bailout programmes that have already passed — the other
eurozone governments were a little less sympathetic, partly due to public pressure, and the Greek
government was more radical than ever.
The European Central Bank sometimes appears to be the sole
eurozone institution seeking to restore the economy, in the absence
of government spending stimulus.
FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank said on Thursday that it would begin buying hundreds
of billions
of euros worth
of government bonds in an aggressive — though some say belated — attempt to prevent the
eurozone from becoming trapped in long - term economic stagnation.
However, Varufakis» strategy already failed in previous negotiations with the Eurogroup, as the agreements signed with
Eurozone countries stipulate that Greece will not be granted any further payments before the end
of April, and they would be conditioned by a successful evaluation
of the implementations
of reforms announced by the Tsiprasled Greek
government.
Government bond yields are negative across much
of Northern Europe, amid fears
of deflation and stresses in the
eurozone.
And at
government level throughout the
eurozone, there are clearly conflicts
of interest for the Greeks to exploit.
She's also calling for a
government takeover
of the French central bank (which is currently an independent entity that doesn't print money for the Treasury) and the creation
of a currency system like the one previously used across the
eurozone.
In an uncharacteristically short meeting
of the
eurozone's finance ministers in Brussels, president
of the eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem said the Greek
government ought to stop throwing away time and begin enacting the reforms it requirements to complete its $ 7.2 bn in bail - out extension.
Greece would have no means for funding, and could end up leaving the
Eurozone, not because it was specific strategy on the part
of the
government or even on the part
of the creditors, but again, almost by accident.
-LRB-...) The strength
of demand for
eurozone «periphery» debt reflected increased investor appetite for higher - yielding
government bonds as well as rising confidence in the creditworthiness
of eurozone economies.
Growth in most
of the
eurozone has remained tepid and reliant on continued central bank stimulus, though the European Central Bank's (ECB's) bond - purchasing program has been hampered by a scarcity
of eligible bonds, as issuance from member
governments is restricted by their austerity - driven policies.
A key sign: Prices for
government bonds
of other heavily indebted
eurozone countries — such as Spain and Italy — are not suffering in sync with Greek bonds, as they did before.
Though the ECB has acknowledged that one
of the main factors underlying the
eurozone's stagnation is a lack
of credit growth, any potential use
of QE seems unlikely to make much
of an impact in this regard, even if an announcement
of QE could drive yields down further, making it even less attractive for banks to hold
government bonds.
The news
of Greek finance minister Varoufakis» resignation is being perceived as an incremental positive for negotiations, but we think the «No» vote in Greece over the first weekend in July, the precarious position
of the Greek banking system, and
eurozone policymaker distrust
of the current Greek
government have clearly raised the chances
of a Greek
eurozone exit.
While it is quite true that some
of the shackles on growth are outside
of the control
of domestic economic policy, such as the continuing
eurozone crisis and imported inflation,
government does have a role to create the best possible environment for businesses to thrive and grow.
It could also be different if it coincides with importunate military pressures or pressures on the currency that preclude slower - paced adjustment (as in 1931 or 1950), or if it takes place in the context
of an external bailout that cuts across the normal electoral cycle (as with the US bailout
of the Attlee
government in 1949, the IMF bailout
of 1976 or the more recent
Eurozone bailouts), or in a context
of no or very low economic growth over a prolonged period.
Under Osborne, productivity is abysmal, business investment is weak, exports are struggling (despite the fact that, unlike the
eurozone economies, we still have full control
of our own currency thanks to the decisions
of the last
government).
The second part
of the agreement involves a common resolution scheme whereby when any
eurozone bank gets into trouble the scheme will decide whether to bail out the bank or let it go bust, with all
eurozone governments jointly bearing the cost
of the bailout.
In fairness to the Conservative - led
government, they have been clear that they believe Britain belongs in Europe and out
of the
eurozone.
In this regard, Greece's creditors have reaped what they sowed; by demanding yet more austerity two months before national elections, the IMF, EU Commission, and ECB facilitated the fall
of Samaras» coalition
government, rise
of Syriza, and the chaos that has ensued, almost leading to the dissolution
of the
Eurozone.
In light
of the considerable uncertainty around the economic and fiscal outlook, including the risks posed to economic recovery by ongoing financial tensions in the
eurozone and against the backdrop
of a still large structural budget deficit and high and rising
government debt, the Negative Outlook indicates a slightly greater than 50 % chance
of a downgrade over a two - year horizon.»
In reality, however, it is the
eurozone's capitals — especially the incoherence
of the Merkel - Sarkozy approach, not to speak
of the feebleness
of Club Med
governments - and not the EU that have caused the problems.
The British
government has tried to bring the two sides
of the
eurozone debate together with separate messages to the Greek and German people on the back
of a G8 meeting in the US.
«Before the full impact
of the
eurozone crisis, the
government's decision to cut spending and raise taxes too far and too fast has undermined business confidence, held back growth, stalled job creation and left Britain's economy dangerously exposed,» he said.
Adam Fleming took the mood box to find out whether the public thought the age
of austerity was worth it as the crisis in the
eurozone rumbles on,
government cuts are starting to bite, and the cost
of living continues to go up.
Certainly the attitude
of the UK
government has not helped; on one hand urging the
eurozone to accept the «remorseless logic»
of greater economic and fiscal integration, including Germany taking on liabilities for weaker
eurozone states via debt pooling, while on the other refusing to take part in such measures itself and zealously looking after its own self interest.
In a marked change
of tone, the
government is now predicting the worst and seeking to attribute blame, wholesale, to the
Eurozone crisis.
There is a warning in the travails
of the
eurozone, but not the one that the
government claim there is.
Miliband then used his speech to launch a powerful assault on the
government's claim that Britain has entered a double dip recession as a result
of the troubles in the
eurozone.
«Some
of us want the UK
government to use the influence it says it has at the IMF to halt the futile bail outs
of Eurozone members.
This Coalition
Government was formed in the midst
of a debt crisis in the
Eurozone.
Troubles in Italy (and other poorly - led nations) benefit Britain... «UK long - term borrowing costs have fallen to their lowest level this year, as troubles in the
eurozone offset worries over a fresh batch
of credit rating downgrades for
government - backed institutions.»
After all, the
Government misjudged the speed
of our recovery; it is therefore not impossible a similar misjudgement has been made about the
Eurozone.
If the Greeks and other fringe members
of the
Eurozone default, and the core
governments don't bail the situation out, those holding CP
of core
Eurozone banks may take a loss.
Some
of the outperformers are the S&P
Eurozone Developed Sovereign Bond Index (up 11.98 %), the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index (up 7.71 %) and the S&P China
Government Bond Index (up 10.35 %).
The book spends a lot
of time on the
Eurozone, with its bevy
of distressed
governments.
As shown in Exhibit 3, the growth
of dividend ETPs» assets since year - end 2009 coincided with a period
of low and declining 10 - year
government bond yields in the U.S.,
eurozone, and Japan.
Of course, the big unknowns are what happens if the
eurozone crisis deepens and / or the Irish
government gets even more «hands on» with the financial sector, so let's not count our chickens just yet!
Despite the good intentions
of its creators, the idea
of setting up a permanent international body competent to grant financial assistance (amongst other things) to
eurozone members in financial difficulties goes somewhat against the foundations
of the Economic and Monetary Union, which aims at ensuring price stability through sound
government budgets.
The first was set out in the Eurogroup statement
of 20 February 2015 and the second took the form
of a complementary list
of planned reforms, which was sent by the Greek
government to its
Eurozone partners on 23 February 2015.
Overall, the book gives an excellent account
of the debate on the legitimacy
of government and governance
of the
Eurozone and ultimately the EU that took place in the aftermath
of the Eurocrisis and contains interesting ideas on how more democratic legitimacy could be achieved, which is why it is definitively worth reading and discussing.
A couple
of months ago, an interesting volume edited by Federico Fabbrini, Ernst Hirsch Ballin and Han Somsen entitled «What form
of government for the European Union and the
Eurozone?