This is because Alan Greenspan and other members frequently signal their intentions to change interest rates, and the prices
of the Fed funds futures are sensitive to his outlook.
You can see this best by looking at the price
of the Fed Funds futures contracts.
In April, thinking they see continued rises in inflation expectation, they do an inter-meeting surprise 1/4 % raise
of Fed funds, followed by another 1/2 % in May.
The prime rate is usually adjusted at the same time and in correlation to the adjustments
of the Fed Funds Rate, a short - term rate objective or target rate of the Federal Reserve Board.
Fed funds futures are contracts that reflect market predictions
of the fed funds rate at the time of contract expiry.
What
of Fed funds policy?
You can see this in the recent trading patterns of the S&P 500 and the implied rate
of the Fed Funds futures contracts.
The eventual normalization
of the Fed Funds rate gives the Fed all its tools back to battle any future economic issues that may arise.
The yield curve has enough slope to benefit banks that don't face a lot of credit problems... and the yield curve will steepen further from here, particularly if the expected nadir
of Fed funds drops below 2 %.
He and Paul McCulley consistently argued against raising rates during the recent up cycle, and in the prior down cycle cheered the lowering
of the Fed funds rate down to 1 %.
HELOC rates move in lock - step with Fed Funds because the Prime Rate is comprised
of the Fed Funds Rate plus three percent.
Regarding predictions
of the Fed funds rate, for the most part expectations for the rate have declined for 2012 - 2014.
Over the past quarter century the level
of the fed funds rate has explained nearly 50 % of the variation in stock / bond correlations, according to Bloomberg data.
«Actions» that the Fed can take include its setting
of the Fed Funds Rate and the Discount Rate; and establishing programs such as quantitative easing.
But what of the shift in opinions regarding the level
of the Fed Funds rate over time?
Off
of Fed funds options, the odds of no change are 10 %, odds of a 25 basis point cut are 70 %, and the odds of a 50 basis point cut are 20 %.
I challenge the Fed to do the following: Offer multiple tenors (maturities)
of Fed funds.
We've just been through 4.5 years
of Fed funds / Interest on reserves being below 0.5 % — this is a far greater period of loose policy than that of 1992 - 1993 and 2002 to mid-2004 together, and there is no apparent end in sight.
One way the Fed can influence the level
of the fed funds rate is via «open market transactions.»
Over the past quarter century the level
of the fed funds rate has explained nearly 50 % of the variation in stock / bond correlations, according to Bloomberg data.
To compel the Fed to switch from its current «leaky floor» monetary control system, based on paying banks an above - market return on their excess reserves, to a more orthodox system in which the interest rate on excess reserves defines the lower bound
of a fed funds rate «corridor,» all that's needed is a slight clarification of existing law.
It's the setting
of the Fed Funds Rate, though, which is the Fed's most well - known tool.
Fed funds futures are contracts that reflect market predictions
of the fed funds rate at the time of contract expiry.
With the lower band
of the Fed funds rate now at 1.25 %, it's likely to be trading near 2.0 % by the end of 2018.
You can see this in the recent trading patterns of the S&P 500 and the implied rate
of the Fed Funds futures contracts.
The availability and pricing
of fed funds no longer constrains most banks.
This is because Alan Greenspan and other members frequently signal their intentions to change interest rates, and the prices
of the Fed funds futures are sensitive to his outlook.
The Fed's 0.25 % hike in the fed funds target rate was expected, but the latest survey of individual Fed policymakers suggested that most anticipate a faster pace
of fed funds rate increases in 2019 and 2020.
But I think it very unlikely that more than 150bps
of Fed funds equivalent additional stimulus is feasible.
The 2 - year note yield is basically just a function
of fed funds expectations, but the 10 - year note yield is a function of many things — three things in particular I'd like to highlight:
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, one of the 12 member banks of the Federal Reserve system, breaks down the impact
of the fed funds rate.
The inevitable increase
of the Fed funds rate is starting to look like it could be a non-event.
Schultz: If you put in a hawk such as [former Fed governor Kevin] Warsh, the possibility of a quicker pace
of Fed funds rate hikes will increase.
Traders are still pricing in two rate hikes this year, based on the price
of Fed funds futures contracts traded at CME Group (cme) Chicago Board of Trade.
Not exact matches
«The current pace
of repricing in
fed funds is not immediately problematic for the Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips with the possibility of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen sa
fed funds is not immediately problematic for the
Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips with the possibility of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen sa
Fed and there is yet time to price more into the curve, though we'd argue that at the June meeting, it's likely the markets will have to come to grips with the possibility
of a fourth hike in 2018 and price more appropriately,» Lyngen said.
And so what the
Fed is basically saying here is that because investors are using mutual
funds to invest in bonds, instead
of owning the bonds, there could be a problem if investors all want to leave at the same time.
Competition for cash has returned with a vengeance, after the
Fed stifled it in 2008 to keep the cost
of funding for banks to near zero so that they could maximize their profits in order to rebuild their capital after teetering on the verge
of collapse.
Even in the weeks before the
Fed's move, highly valued private companies faced other pressures as prominent mutual
fund companies, such as Fidelity Investments, bid down the value
of their holdings, potentially over concerns that they had become too bloated.
Following
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's comments regarding the tapering
of quantitative easing this summer,
funds previously invested in countries like India are being repatriated to the United States.
But the lack
of any statement about when the next one would happen moved markets that trade in future interest rates hikes, causing the price
of so - called
Fed funds futures to drop.
«Dataminr
feeds are like table stakes right now: Most hedge
funds need to have it,» says Santo Politi, a founder
of Spark Capital, a venture capital firm that was an early backer
of Twitter and has a majority stake in a two - year - old hedge
fund, Tashtego, that trades on signals from social media and other nontraditional data.
Critics have worried that the
Fed has missed opportunities to normalize policy, but Yellen said «the risk
of falling behind the curve in the near future appears limited, and gradual increases in the federal
funds rate will likely be sufficient to get to a neutral policy stance over the next few years.»
The 30 - day
Fed Fund futures can be used as a guide to predict when the
Fed might increase interest rates since the prices are an expression
of trader's views on the likelihood
of changes in U.S. monetary policy.
In a recent speech to the Providence Chamber
of Commerce,
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said, «I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal -
funds rate target and begin the process
of normalizing monetary policy.»
«There's so much ammunition»
feeding this movement, agrees Mike Novogratz, a billionaire former hedge
fund manager who now has 30 %
of his net worth invested in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
For her part, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in June that the removal
of the
Fed as a prop in October might not coincide with an immediate increase in its federal
funds rate, which has hovered near zero since the financial crisis began.
As universally expected, the Federal Reserve left things as they were after yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting: the target for the
Fed funds rate stays between 0 and 0.25 per cent and the bank will continue to buy $ 40 billion - worth
of mortgage - backed securities, plus $ 45 billion
of longer - term treasuries per month.
The
fund manager insists it is time for the
Fed to address this issue by requiring compliance with a
Fed surveillance team as a condition
of primary dealer status.
Fully 100 percent
of the 48 respondents to the survey, including economists, strategists and
fund managers, are sure the
Fed won't hike at its meeting this week.
In the years prior to 2008, Hollywood saw production explode,
fed by billions
of dollars flowing in from flush Wall Street
funds.