Modeling impacts
of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests
Not exact matches
The
severity and the heat
of the
fire would mean it is an absolute miracle for anyone to be left alive.»
Steve Kean, the 43 - year - old who had no previous managerial experience at this level when he decided he would try his hand at management with Blackburn Rovers, already has the ignominy
of knowing he has overseen the club's worst ever start to a Premier League season − any season since 1947/48 − and the
severity of their forthcoming fixtures would suggest a reprieve isn't on its way any time soon for the under -
fire Glaswegian.
For example, extreme droughts may reduce productivity due to water stress and increases in the frequency and
severity of forest
fires.
«In next 30 years, we're looking at pretty consistent disruption
of current
fire patterns for over half the planet — most
of which involve increases» in
severity, said lead author Max Moritz, a
fire specialist based at UC Berkeley's College
of Natural Resources.
As the research team saw while hiking through miles
of dense brush, high -
severity fires also stimulate shrub growth to the detriment
of fire - resistant tree species that foresters try to encourage.
The researchers surveyed a range
of elevations, forest types and
fire severities - including in the Sierra Nevada, Klamath Mountains, and North Coast regions - to determine which factors promote and limit natural conifer regeneration and how different conifer species respond after a
fire.
«High -
severity fires are knocking out seed sources and leading to a natural regeneration bottleneck, which poses a predicament for the sustainability
of our forests,» said lead author Kevin Welch, a research associate with the UC Davis Department
of Plant Sciences.
«The confluence
of climate and people in these areas increases the risk
of widespread
fire activity when the
fire season
severity is elevated,» said Doug Morton
of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., who works with Randerson and colleagues on the forecast.
«We haven't seen much change in the
severity of these
fires, but they are getting bigger on average, which may be due to drought - driven shrub mortality.»
The lack
of correlation between spruce beetle infestation and severe
fire damage suggests that factors such as topography and weather conditions play a larger role in determining the
severity of Colorado's subalpine wildfires.
«Over the past few decades, wildfire suppression costs have increased as
fire seasons have grown longer and the frequency, size, and
severity of wildfires has increased,» Jones said.
The findings track with the growing body
of research on the impact
of insects on forest
fire severity, said Carolyn Sieg, a research plant ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service.
In the case
of the western spruce budworm, a cream - colored insect that especially enjoys munching on conifers, the analysis showed in the first few years after an outbreak
fire severity is low, but over the course
of decades it increases.
For example, last year, a team
of Colorado researchers found no correlation between beetles and
fire severity in the case
of high - elevation spruce and fir forests in southwestern Colorado (ClimateWire, Nov. 2, 2015).
For mountain pine beetles, the study found
fire severity was high immediately after an outbreak, but over time as the number
of trees killed by the beetle outbreak grew,
fire severity leveled out.
«We found prescribed burns really reduced the
severity of the Rim
Fire,» said Alan Taylor, professor
of geography and associate in the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute at Penn State.
However, the
severity of that initial
fire was the best predictor
of how severe the next
fire would be.
«You are probably getting a vegetation change due to that first
fire that's going to cause more high -
severity fires in the future and potentially the emergence
of non-forest that could last for a long time.»
«Low
severity burning seems to be very effective at limiting the
severity of subsequent
fires,» said Lucas Harris, a graduate student in geography and lead author on the paper.
«Controlled burns limited
severity of Rim
Fire.»
The
fire severity forecast model, developed by Yang Chen and Jim Randerson at the University
of California, Irvine, along with NASA scientists, was first published in 2011 in the journal Science.
And
fire severity is already increasing in many forests due to climate change — what is now thought
of as a drought in some locations may be considered average by the end
of the next century.
Many
fire scientists have tried to get Smokey the Bear to hang up his «prevention» motto in favor
of tools like thinning and prescribed burns, which can manage the
severity of wildfires while allowing them to play their natural role in certain ecosystems.
In other words, there is a large role that wildland management can play in limiting the
severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests even as the climate warms and conditions become right for larger and potentially more severe
fires.
This type
of low
severity fire could cover a lot
of area without being too severe.
In addition, our
fire weather season length metric captures variations in the number
of days each year that
fires are likely to burn, but it does not account for inter-annual variations in
fire season
severity.
Further work should consider both a lengthening
fire season and an increase in within - season
fire weather
severity as causal mechanisms
of burned area variations.
Modeling work by Schoennagel et al (2004) and Rocca et al (2014) for the Rocky Mountains projects changes in
fire frequency (assumed by the authors to be related to the long - term increase in probability
of fire occurrence) and
severity in western Montana.
Combined with fuel loads, higher evapotranspiration rates and resulting shifts in water balance may be the best predictor
of increased
fire risk and
fire severity in the future under a changing climate (Littell and Gwozdz 2011; Abatzoglou and Kolden 2013).
The phase
of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that leads to warmer conditions may also prolong and intensify the
fire season (Heyerdahl et al. 2008; Jolly et al. 2015; Abatzoglou and Williams 2016), and it is clear that years with protracted or widespread wildland
fire or increased
fire severity are correlated with drought (Littell et al. 2009; van Mantgem et al. 2013).
Increased
fire severity resulting primarily from warmer weather and past
fire suppression; increased release
of forest carbon from
fire
An increase in
fire risk (i.e., probability
of occurrence)-- including an increase in size and possible frequency and / or
severity (i.e., tree mortality)-- is expected in the coming century as a result
of a) prolonged
fire seasons due to increased temperatures, and b) increased fuel loads from past
fire suppression.
In spite
of this,
Fire has the nerve to end with a statement about the
severity of rainforest devastation, as if this afterthought
of social conscience will make up for the misjudgments that have preceded it.
We have been very fortunate that despite the number and
severity of some
of fires, there have been few casualties and no recorded fatalities in school
fires the UK.
By linking the
fire,
fire door and building alarms into a site - wide communications and safety system,
fire marshals can be quickly deployed to the site
of an alarm to assess its
severity.
The presence
of lithium batteries can also increase the
severity of a
fire originating from another source.
Renters insurance rates in California are probably high as a result
of the frequency and
severity of fires, bodily injury and property damage liability claims and water damage.
By Saturday evening, local volcanologists increased the
severity of the eruption from phreatic (steam) to magmatic, after
fire and lava were spotted near the summit.
Worldwide, vegetation
fires are showing a trend toward longer burning periods, increased
fire severity, larger areas burned and increased (mostly human caused) frequency — with all
of these factors contributing to more damaging environmental impacts, higher shares
of emissions and increasing socioeconomic costs, including greater threats to human health and security.
Finally, the
severity and length
of the recent drought [e.g. Nicholls 2006] and the associated
fire danger has not been seen in the available records.»
The scale and
severity of fires in the Southwest and Colorado are affected by a different mix than those, like the huge raging Rim
Fire around and in Yosemite National Park, in the Sierras.
Further studies indicate that prescribed
fire in these ecosystems, overall are less damaging, and certainly emit less than short - term high
severity events which in the West, are very visible effects
of a long - time
fire exclusion approach.
As author and co-editor
of a new
fire book, «The Ecological Importance
of Mixed -
Severity Fires — Nature's Phoenix,» I would like to comment on Lindon's hypothesis that by «controlling»
fire we can reduce climate change impacts.
Across south - eastern Australia, an elevation in the
severity of weather conditions conducive to
fire has been measured in recent decades.
As for the
severity of burning, that is one thing that we can «control» fairly well by using prescribed
fire only under the right seasonality (see early summer burning in e.g. South Africa or Australia), the right local weather conditions, and through the correct methodology / application.
The standards would tighten depending on level
of hazard determined through a «
fire exposure
severity zoning system.»
It must be noted that the vast majority
of fires are still human caused — supporting the notion that increased frequency and
severity is likely very true.
For completed buildings, research shows that the size and
severity of the majority
of fires are related to the contents
of a building and the living and working habits
of its occupants.
Infrequent, large, high
severity fires in these types
of landscapes is not an ecological disaster, rather it is a continuation
of an ancient process that most native species are well adapted to in those places.