Changes in the heating and cooling degree days are another likely extreme temperature - related effect
of future greenhouse warming.
A large enough number of such roofs could «completely offset warming due to urban expansion and even offset a percentage
of future greenhouse warming over large regional scales,» says sustainability scientist Matei Georgescu at Arizona State University, who lead the research.
Not exact matches
About half
of this near - term
warming represents a «commitment» to
future climate change arising from the inertia
of the climate system response to current atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases.
A few
of the main points
of the third assessment report issued in 2001 include: An increasing body
of observations gives a collective picture
of a
warming world and other changes in the climate system; emissions
of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate; confidence in the ability
of models to project
future climate has increased; and there is new and stronger evidence that most
of the
warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
«This quantitative attribution
of human and natural climate influences on the IPWP expansion increases our confidence in the understanding
of the causes
of past changes as well as for projections
of future changes under further
greenhouse warming,» commented Seung - Ki Min, a professor with POSTECH's School
of Environmental Science and Engineering.
This suggests that the research community has a sound understanding
of what the climate will be like as we move toward a Pliocene - like
warmer future caused by human
greenhouse gas emissions.»
Global
greenhouse gas emissions have already committed the residents
of the Maldives to a watery
future: ocean expansion due to
warming has raised sea levels enough to regularly deluge the islands, and melting glaciers will only make matters worse.
I am ready and willing to examine the possibility that
greenhouse gases produced the
warming of the past 130 years, and that the
future of the world is in jeopardy with further CO2 emissions — provided that sufficient technical proof is provided.
Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global
warming,
Greenhouse gases, Mitigation
of Climate Change, Present - day observations, Oceans, Paleo - climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice
of Science, Solar forcing, Projections
of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.
By the way, in my opinion, the elevated
greenhouse gas levels already in the air, combined with the
future emissions from machines already built, plus increased natural emissions from carbon sinks becoming carbon emitters (i.e. permafrost melting) will cause the rate
of warming to top 0.4 C / decade by mid-century.
It is this background
warming from the heat trapped by
greenhouse gases that actually accounts for most
of the predictability in
future temperature change, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State.
Contemporary global mean sea level rise will continue over many centuries as a consequence
of anthropogenic climate
warming, with the detailed pace and final amount
of rise depending substantially on
future greenhouse gas emissions.
In contrast to historical droughts,
future drying is not linked to any particular pattern
of change in sea surface temperature but seems to be the result
of an overall surface
warming driven by rising
greenhouse gases.
Since this goes along with an increasing
greenhouse effect and a further global
warming, a better understanding
of the carbon cycle is
of great importance for all
future climate change predictions.
Do you think that in the same way that the Solanki et al paper on solar sunspot reconstructions had a specific statement that their results did not contradict ideas
of strong
greenhouse warming in recent decades, this (the fact that climate sensitivity projections are not best estimates
of possible
future actual temperature increases) should be clearly noted in media releases put out by scientists when reporting climate sensitivity studies?
The whole problem
of how much
warming will occur convolves lots
of questions involving how the climate reacts to
greenhouse gases, the carbon cycle, and our
future path as societies in terms
of our energy use (and other emissions).
Certainly
future ocean
warming from increasing levels
of greenhouse gases is reasonable to expect.
The findings laid out below reinforce the reality that the biggest impacts
of greenhouse - driven global
warming still lie several generations in the
future.
If, for example, scientists had somehow underestimated the climate change between Medieval times and the Little Ice Age, or other natural climate changes, without corresponding errors in the estimated size
of the causes
of the changes, that would suggest stronger amplifying feedbacks and larger
future warming from rising
greenhouse gases than originally estimated.
«
Future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently suggest that
greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity
of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms,» Knutson et al. (2010); Grinsted et al. (2013) projected «a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency
of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature.»
Two
of President Bush's onetime and possibly
future political rivals joined forces today to warn that the nation's isolation from a global
warming pact could hurt American businesses as well as the environment and said that they wanted to guide the nation toward limits on
greenhouse gases.
Continued
greenhouse gas emissions leading to further
warming would mean that the chances
of seeing years at 1.5 °C or more would likely increase in
future years.»
Quantification
of the likely contributions
of greenhouse gases and other forcing factors to past temperature change (Section 9.4.1.4) in turn provides observational constraints on the transient climate response, which determines the rapidity and strength
of a global temperature response to external forcing (see Glossary and Sections 9.6.2.3 and 8.6.2.1 for detailed definitions) and therefore helps to constrain likely
future rates
of warming.
Heartland's spokesperson frequently say there is no scientific consensus that most
of the global
warming of the twentieth century was man - made, or that scientists are able to predict
future climate conditions, or, finally, that there is a basis in science or economics for passing laws that would reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
This is because over the past three years, hundreds
of new scientific field accounts
of global
warming's impacts, as well as improved peer - reviewed analyses
of global
warming itself in both the deep past and the very near
future, have depicted earth's atmosphere as far more «sensitive» to the invisible CO2, methane and other human - sourced
greenhouse gases than had been hoped.
Apart
of course from the amount
of greenhouse gases we keep pumping into the atmosphere, there are mainly three factors that determine the amount
of warming we will experience in the near
future: CO2 climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and... Continue reading →
They reported that «no catastrophic hurricane
of category 4 or 5 intensity has made landfall in the Western Lake [northern Florida] area during the last 130 year documentary record» but «If
future climatic changes, whether or not related to the anticipated
greenhouse warming, lead to a return
of a «hyperactive» hurricane regime characteristic
of the first millennium A.D., then the northeastern Gulf Coast is expected to experience a dramatic increase in the frequency
of strikes by catastrophic hurricanes.»
Agriculture must feed 7bn people, and to do this already emits somewhere between 25 % and 33 %
of all
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, to drive global
warming and put
future food supplies at hazard.
First, the computer climate models on which predictions
of rapid
warming from enhanced atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the
warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed
warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting
future GAT.
The weather we've seen this fall may or may not be due to the global
warming trend, but it's certainly a clear picture
of what the
future is going to look like if we don't act quickly to cut emissions
of the
greenhouse gases.
Contemporary global mean sea level rise will continue over many centuries as a consequence
of anthropogenic climate
warming, with the detailed pace and final amount
of rise depending substantially on
future greenhouse gas emissions.
Since the temperature increase dates from the beginning
of the industrial age and the
warming apparently accelerates as
greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere (picture below this), it is used as strong evidence
of cause and effect and projected into the
future (which I'll write about later).
Measuring CO2 to fight global
warming University
of Utah and Harvard scientists develop way to enforce
future greenhouse gas treaty SALT LAKE CITY, May 14, 2012 — If the world's nations ever sign...
It adopted a moderate anthro - emissions scenario from AR4 as the AGW input, but set arbitrary constraints on its findings by excluding the
greenhouse gas outputs»
warming from the assessment
of the permafrost's rate
of melting, and by assuming that only CO2 was emitted - which allowed the projected
future output to be stated in simple carbon tonnage.
They used a number
of climate models and made a «moderate estimate»
of future emissions
of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases that are widely believed to be contributing to the recent
warming trend
of the Earth's climate.
... In light
of their recent findings, Davies et al. say there is «little support for the existence
of a «permanent El Niño»... that there was robust ENSO variability in past «
greenhouse» episodes and that
future warming will be unlikely to promote a permanent El Niño state,» which point they also emphasize in the final sentence
of their abstract, where they say that their evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability «does not support the theory
of a «permanent El Niño,»» [Andrew Davies, Alan E.S. Kemp, Graham P. Weedon, John A. Barron 2012: Geology]
Our need to limit
future greenhouse warming is proportional to how severe we think the impacts
of climate change will be.
According to the Cato Institute's book summary, «Acknowledging that industrial emissions
of greenhouse gasses have
warmed the planet and will continue to do so over the next several decades, Michaels and Balling argue that
future warming will be moderate, not catastrophic, and will have benign economic and ecological effects.»
However,
future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that
greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity
of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases
of 2 — 11 % by 2100.
A
greenhouse warming may reduce the 1,500 - year cycle aspects, but this provides us with no comfort regarding
future prospects since a
warming can shortcut the usual circuit, bypassing the usual stage - setting by amplification
of the 1,500 - year cycle.
The legislation is entirely based on the agency's finding, in 2009, that key
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere «threaten the public health and welfare
of current and
future generations» — because
of their contribution to global
warming.
Because nations have failed to make commitments to reduce global
greenhouse gas emissions to levels that will limit
future warming do 2 °C, there is an increasing sense
of urgency among climate scientists around the world on the need for all nations to significantly increase their
greenhouse gas emissions reductions commitments to their fair share
of safe global emissions.
«Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding
of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions
of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates
of the magnitude
of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to
future adjustments (either upward or downward).»
It acknowledges that global
warming will continue as long as humans continue increasing the
greenhouse effect, and merely suggests that
future warming will be toward the lower, slower end
of the IPCC estimates.
This suggests that IPCC projections
of future global
warming, which are based on various possible human
greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are reliable.
Most
of the «
future» effect is already «dialed in», it is the observation
of delayed effect that is being given «regard» as a «
greenhouse issue», even as the «
greenhouse effect» is seen as not possible, or that «
greenhouse warming amplification» is not evidenced within possible surface incident energy (as Photons).
With this in mind, I would really like to know how the social and financial costs will change in the
future as droughts set in earlier, faster, and harder because
of greenhouse gas
warming.
Manabe and Stouffer (1993) pioneered the demonstration
of a transition under
future warming; an improved model showed a shutdown was especially likely with rapid increase
of greenhouse gas emissions, Stocker and Schnitter (1997); see also Broecker (1997); Wood et al. (1999); summary: Rahmstorf (1999); Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2001) for instability during a glacial period; IPCC (2001a), pp. 439 - 40.
-LSB-...]
Future warming of the climate is inevitable for many years due to the
greenhouse gases already added to the atmosphere and the heat that has been taken up by the oceans.
However, were
future technologies and policies able to achieve a rapid reduction
of greenhouse gas emissions â $» an approach termed â $ œmitigationâ $ â $» this would greatly lessen
future global
warming and its impacts.