Greenland's conventional earthquakes aren't showing any trend despite the loss
of glacial mass balance.
Given the level of denialism in the face
of glacial mass loss, plummeting Arctic summer ice cover, progressive collapse of ice shelves that have been stable for 6000 to 10000 years, northward, upward, and seasonally earlier movements of ecosystems and other phenological changes, increasing Greenland ice melt, and all the other direct observations of global warming, I think denialists will go to their graves believing it can't be happening.
It has been established experimentally that, at ca 4.0 ka BP, there occurred a global change in the structure of atmospheric circulation, which coincided in time with the discharge
of glacial masses from Greenland to North Atlantic and a solar activity minimum.
Not exact matches
According to theory, planets in such distant orbits move so slowly that they should grow at a
glacial rate and top out at
masses well short
of Jupiter's before the disk disperses.
The more intensive variations during
glacial periods are due to the greater difference in temperature between the ice - covered polar regions and the Tropics, which produced a more dynamic exchange
of warm and cold air
masses.
By combining GOCE's high - resolution measurements with information from Grace, scientists can now look at changes in ice
mass in small
glacial systems — offering even greater insight into the dynamics
of Antarctica's different basins.
The movement
of these large
masses of ice also leaves distinct marks on the walls
of valleys and in the form
of deposits
of glacial sediment.
Complementary analyses
of the surface
mass balance
of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise sea level by 15 cm by 2050 ″ for a total
of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from
glacial ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate
of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived by linking the observed rate
of sea level rise to the observed warming.
As the
glacial mass decreases over time, the amount
of melted water that was produced can be calculated.
Evidence from
glacial advance / retreat (e.g. the evidence from tropical Andean glaciers you cite above) is often difficult to interpret, because
glacial mass balance represents in general a subtle competition between the influences
of ablation (determined by changes in temperature thresholds reached) and accumulation (determined by changes in humidity and precipitation).
During the late Pleistocene
glacial maxima, about two - thirds
of the present Alaskan land
mass was ice free (Hamilton and Goebel 1999:156).
I think these are simply features
of global climate that are embedded and as predictable as other large features like hurricane patterns, the gulf stream, the jet stream, sea ice extent and
mass, global
glacial conditions, sea level etc..
We do not blame
glacial eustasy for those oscillations, rather ocean dynamic factors like drastic changes in evaporation / precipitation or redistributions
of the water
masses.
The current picture
of Holocene climate variations is based not just on tree ring data, but on
glacial mass balance and a wide variety
of other proxy data.
Also, I believe we are seeing the beginning
of a new
glacial southern migration, the Arctic ice cap has thinned and the surface
mass has been on the increase which to me is indicative
of a
glacial formation
Around the world, scientists calculate that the
mass of glacial ice has been nearly halved in the last 50 years.
If the oceans had been losing energy over the same period the troposphere was seeing the «pause» or the sea level declining, or the net
glacial mass of Greenland and Antarctica increasing rather than declining, then the «pause» would be confirmatory evidence that maybe the climate is not as sensitive to increasing GH gases.
We now have a faster warming rate and still 1/3
of the Ice Age
glacial mass left to melt.
Gravity measurements
of the ice -
mass loss in Greenland and Antarctica are complicated by
glacial isostatic adjustment.
An ice sheet is a
mass of glacial land ice extending more than 50,000 square kilometers (20,000 square miles).
Additionally, unadjusted GRACE gravity data has suggested no lost ice
mass and all estimates
of ice gains or loss depend on which
Glacial Isostatic Adjustments modelers choose to use.
During the onset
of the MPT,
glacial - interglacial changes in d13C values are associated with changes in nutrient content and carbonate saturation state, consistent with a change in water
mass at our site from a nutrient - poor northern source during interglacial intervals to a nutrient - rich, corrosive southern source during
glacial intervals.»
Atmosphere master Martin Parry, who had been co-seat
of the working gathering on effects for IPCC Ar4, expressed that What started with a solitary shocking mistake over Himalayan
glacial masses has turned into a clamour without substance.
Post-
glacial rebound - The vertical movement
of the land and sea floor following the reduction
of the load
of an ice
mass, for example, since the Last
Glacial Maximum (21 ka).
Reconstructed
mass balance yielded accumulation and ablation each
of ~ 3 km3 / yr, with
glacial movement near the equilibrium line altitude dominated by basal sliding.Pollen and charcoal records from three lakes in northern Yellowstone provide information on the postglacial vegetation and fire history.
Figure 1: Comparison
of macrocharcoal, BC, char, and soot
mass accumulation rates (MARs) with local pollen and molecular compound data during the last
glacial - interglacial transition at Linsley Pond.
Meanwhile, increasingly severe climate change - related events ranging from
mass coral bleaching, to
glacial and sea ice melt, to tree death, to ocean health decline, to the expanding ranges
of tropical infectious diseases, to worsening extreme weather events have occurred the world over.
The magnitude and timing
of effects on hydropower production depend on changes in
glacial mass, as described above.
As the article points out, you can look at other metrics instead - OHC, sealevel, global
glacial mass which have a much lower degree
of internal variability.
But that
mass loss (assuming the Grace calculations are correct, which I don't) is happening, it could be because
of the random fits and starts
of glacial acceleration and deceleration, which is temperature - independent (presumably).
For example, chapter ten, «Ice melts, sea level rises,» discusses the disappearance
of tropical mountain glaciers, estimates
of sea level rise in the present century, estimates
of its costs — the EPA estimated in 1991 that a one - meter rise would cost the US alone between $ 270 billion and $ 475 billion — evidence
of past oceanic high - water marks and
glacial extents, the dynamics
of ice sheet disintegration, the thermal expansion
of seawater, icequakes and meltponds, ice
mass loss and gain in Greenland and Antarctica, the ozone hole, and the existence and significance
of «marine ice sheets.»
«As we approach 2 degrees, many models suggest that tipping points will be reached with respect to summer sea ice and these large
masses of glacial ice,» McCarthy told The Yale Forum in an e-mail interview.
Although
mass accumulation rates from these two sediment cores extend much farther back in time, the 232Th normalization
of dust fluxes that are useful for our purposes here can only be calculated for the last three
glacial / interglacial cycles (24, 31).
They are characterized by a rate limited source (
of energy or
mass), a storage mechanism, and a triggerable mechanism or switch which quickly empties the storage — common examples are tipping buckets, neon lamp oscillators, and
glacial cycles.
I am concerned with how changes in climate affect
glacial mass balance and the physical and chemical properties
of snow.
Khan, S. A., L. Liu, J. Wahr, I. Howat, I. Joughin, T. van Dam, and K. Fleming, GPS measurements
of crustal uplift near Jakobshavn Isbrae due to
glacial ice
mass loss, J. Geophys.
The sea level rise data combined with the Argo data combined with the
glacial mass loss estimates provide a pretty strong triangulation
of continued gain
of energy in the climate system with the majority going to OHC gain since 2003.
Cyclonic activity is a big heat pump toward the poles where latent heat
of melting ice shows as net
glacial mass loss or loss
of multi year ice.
Since 2003, the detailed gravity measurements from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
of the change in
glacial land ice and water show an increase in
mass of the ocean.
A fuller list
of recent publications on
glacial movements and
mass balance is available at http://www.wgms.ch/literature.html
Further, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in
glacial mass and extent in the 20th century; melting
of the Greenland Ice Sheet has recently become apparent; snow cover has decreased in many Northern Hemisphere regions; sea ice thickness and extent have decreased in the Arctic in all seasons, most dramatically in spring and summer; the oceans are warming; and sea level is rising due to thermal expansion
of the oceans and melting
of land ice