The current generation
of global atmospheric models in use for climate studies around the world do some things remarkably well, as I've tried to argue in several earlier posts.
(In comparison, horizontal resolutions in most
of the global atmospheric models referenced in the IPCC's 4th assessment are of the order of 100 - 300 km).
for any conceivable application
of a global atmospheric model, say for weather forecasting or climate sensitivity experiments, the issues you raise are irrelevant.
Not exact matches
The study concludes that incorporating this new insight into soil
models will improve our understanding
of how soils influence
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and
global climate.
KATHARINE HAYHOE is an
atmospheric scientist at Texas Tech University, where she studies climate
modeling and the regional impacts
of global warming.
They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality
of their regional
atmospheric climate
model, based on
global climate projections that included several scenarios
of anticipated climate change.
And by carefully measuring and
modeling the resulting changes in
atmospheric composition, scientists could improve their estimate
of how sensitive Earth's climate is to CO2, said lead author Joyce Penner, a professor
of atmospheric science at the University
of Michigan whose work focuses on improving
global climate
models and their ability to
model the interplay between clouds and aerosol particles.
«Which
of those is correct at this stage is unknown, but the droughts being driven by
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is in line with some
of these
global circulation
models,» Lewis said.
«Advances in
global climate
models and high quality ocean,
atmospheric and land observations are helping us push the frontiers
of snowpack prediction.»
After confirming that oxidized organics are involved in the formation and growth
of particles under
atmospheric conditions, the scientists incorporated their findings into a
global particle formation
model.
The researchers looked at a total
of 34 different
global climate
model outputs, encompassing different degrees
of atmospheric sensitivity to greenhouse gases and different levels
of human emissions
of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Their findings, based on output from four
global climate
models of varying ocean and
atmospheric resolution, indicate that ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Shelf is projected to warm twice as fast as previously projected and almost three times faster than the
global average.
Effect
of increased concentrations
of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the
global threat
of zinc deficiency: a
modelling study.
Climate
models show the absence
of a
global atmospheric circulation pattern which bolsters high ocean temperatures key to coral bleaching
Columbia University physicist Peter Eisenberger created an effective
model that proves, through real world testing, that carbon sequestration can be used on a
global scale and can prevent the
atmospheric levels
of carbon dioxide from ever exceeding 450 ppm, below dangerous levels.
They used the Community Earth System
Model, funded primarily by the Department
of Energy and NSF, to simulate
global climate as well as
atmospheric chemistry conditions.
The results from the experiments were incorporated into a
global atmospheric model to assess the impact
of ELVOC on the particle formation and growth in the atmosphere.
To simulate the interplay
of global climate with regional pollution conditions, the scientists turned to two
of the world's leading
atmospheric models, both based at NCAR and developed through broad collaborations with the
atmospheric science community.
An international group
of atmospheric chemists and physicist could now have solved another piece in the climate puzzle by means
of laboratory experiments and
global model simulations.
They were Jorge Sarmiento, an oceanographer at Princeton University who constructs ocean - circulation
models that calculate how much
atmospheric carbon dioxide eventually goes into the world's oceans; Eileen Claussen, executive director
of the Pew Center for
Global Climate Change in Washington, D.C.; and David Keith, a physicist with the University of Calgary in Alberta who designs technological solutions to the global warming pr
Global Climate Change in Washington, D.C.; and David Keith, a physicist with the University
of Calgary in Alberta who designs technological solutions to the
global warming pr
global warming problem.
The
model is supported by observations from satellites, ground - based networks that measure ozone - depleting chemicals in the real world, and by observations from two decades
of NASA aircraft field campaigns, including the most recent Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) in 2013 and the
Atmospheric Tomography (ATom)
global atmospheric survey, which has made three deployments since 2016.
Model simulations
of 20th century
global warming typically use actual observed amounts
of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director,
Atmospheric Sciences and
Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative effect
of clouds and aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate
models.
The Hadley Centre has calculated the massive increase in
atmospheric CO2 levels if the Amazon was to die back as a result
of global warming (climate
models differ on how likely this is, I understand).
Results: Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory — in collaboration with NERSC, Argonne National Laboratory, and Cray — recently achieved an effective aggregate IO bandwidth
of 5 Gigabytes / sec for writing output from a
global atmospheric model to shared files on DOE's «Franklin,» a 39,000 - processor Cray XT4 supercomputer located at NERSC.
Methods: Researchers Drs. Samson M. Hagos and L. Ruby Leung,
atmospheric scientists at PNNL, surveyed tropical divergence in three
global climate
models, three
global reanalyses (
models corrected with observational data), and four sets
of field campaign soundings.
Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory showed that
global climate
models are not accurately depicting the true depth and strength
of tropical clouds that have a strong hold on the general circulation
of atmospheric heat and the
global water balance.
To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation
models to consider two scenarios
of global carbon emissions: one where
atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end
of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).
The real «equilibrium climate sensitivity,» which is the amount
of global warming to be expected for a doubling
of atmospheric CO2, is likely to be about 1 °C, some three times smaller than most
models assumed.
Wang, B., et al., 2004: Design
of a new dynamical core for
global atmospheric models based on some efficient numerical methods.
Tom appears challenged by the idea
of building
global climate
models based on
atmospheric physics and doing years
of testing those
models against actual data.
From an instantaneous doubling
of atmospheric CO2 content from the pre-industrial base level, some
models would project 2 °C (3.6 °F)
of global warming in less than a decade while others would project that it would take more than a century to achieve that much warming.
Find out how researchers are using data from U.S. Department
of Energy's
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility — the world's most comprehensive outdoor laboratory and data archive for research related to
atmospheric processes that affect Earth's climate — to improving regional and
global climate
models.
A large ensemble
of Earth system
model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations
of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range
of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions,
atmospheric CO2,
global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.
This simple but powerful and versatile application has proven invaluable for solving many real - world problems from tracking delivery vehicles, to recording details
of planning applications, to
modeling global atmospheric circulation.
Our estimate is based primarily on our review
of a series
of calculations with three - dimensional
models of the
global atmospheric circulation, which is summarized in Chapter 4.
On
global vs. local, how about the
global model prediction
of a deepening and widening
of the tropical
atmospheric circulation, which leads to the Hadley cell expansion and the projection
of the dry zones expanding polewards.
Finally, here's a brief video discussion
of geo - engineering on The Wall Street Journal Web site, featuring Dale Jamieson and Alan Robock, an
atmospheric scientist at Rutgers who's been
modeling the climate consequences
of human
atmospheric meddling — from
global warming to nuclear winter — for decades:
3) Simpler
models can be designed to fit many aspects
of the
global temperature time series, or the most straightforward aspects
of the
atmospheric dynamics (Q - G
models with dry physics for instance)(See Held, 2005 in BAMS for more examples).
Hermann Harde (2014)[PDF] «Advanced Two - Layer Climate
Model for the Assessment
of Global Warming by CO2» OPEN JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND CLIMATE CHANGE, Volume1, Number
of Global Warming by CO2» OPEN JOURNAL
OF ATMOSPHERIC AND CLIMATE CHANGE, Volume1, Number
OF ATMOSPHERIC AND CLIMATE CHANGE, Volume1, Number3.
In sensitivity experiments the influence
of removed orography
of Greenland on the Arctic flow patterns and cyclone tracks during winter have been determined using a
global coupled
model and a dynamical downscaling with the regional
atmospheric model HIRHAM.
Mike's work, like that
of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use
of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth
of GFDL showing evidence in both climate
model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role
of solar variations in explaining the pattern
of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes
of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and
global sea level, and even a bit
of work in
atmospheric chemistry (an analysis
of beryllium - 7 measurements).
The work is an estimate
of the
global average based on a single - column, time - average
model of the atmosphere and surface (with some approximations — e.g. the surface is not truly a perfect blackbody in the LW (long - wave) portion
of the spectrum (the wavelengths dominated by terrestrial /
atmospheric emission, as opposed to SW radiation, dominated by solar radiation), but it can give you a pretty good idea
of things (fig 1 shows a spectrum
of radiation to space); there is also some comparison to actual measurements.
Back in
atmospheric physics, chaotic behaviour is a highly - studied and well - understood phenomenon
of all realistic
global models, arising directly from the nonlinearity
of the Navier - Stokes equations for fluid flow.
The approximately 20 - year lag (between
atmospheric CO2 concentration change and reaching equilibrium temperature) is an emerging property (just like sensitivity)
of the
global climate system in the GCM
models used in the paper I linked to above, if I understood it correctly.
Tom appears challenged by the idea
of building
global climate
models based on
atmospheric physics and doing years
of testing those
models against actual data.
This hindcast uses two time - varying inputs: 10 - meter wind vectors from the
atmospheric model NAVGEM (Navy Global Environmental Model, Hogan et al. 2014) run at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and analyses of ice concentrations (also produced at FNMOC) from passive microwave radiometer data (SSM
model NAVGEM (Navy
Global Environmental
Model, Hogan et al. 2014) run at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and analyses of ice concentrations (also produced at FNMOC) from passive microwave radiometer data (SSM
Model, Hogan et al. 2014) run at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and analyses
of ice concentrations (also produced at FNMOC) from passive microwave radiometer data (SSM / I).
Syllabus: Lecture 1: Introduction to
Global Atmospheric Modelling Lecture 2: Types
of Atmospheric and Climate
Models Lecture 3: Energy Balance
Models Lecture 4: 1D Radiative - Convective
Models Lecture 5: General Circulation
Models (GCMs) Lecture 6:
Atmospheric Radiation Budget Lecture 7: Dynamics
of the Atmosphere Lecture 8: Parametrizations
of Subgrid - Scale Physical Processes Lecture 9: Chemistry
of the Atmosphere Lecture 10: Basic Methods
of Solving
Model Equations Lecture 11: Coupled Chemistry - Climate
Models (CCMs) Lecture 12: Applications
of CCMs: Recent developments
of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry Lecture 13: Applications
of CCMs: Future Polar Ozone Lecture 14: Applications
of CCMs: Impact
of Transport Emissions Lecture 15: Towards an Earth System
Model
To better determine the fate
of the species in the face
of climate change, the researchers analyzed a total
of 34 different
global climate
models, taking into account
atmospheric sensitivity to greenhouse gases and different levels
of human greenhouse gas emissions.
Although I was unable to demostrate the effect
of this modification in the single column
model, after returning from Korea I implemented this same scheme in a
global atmospheric model and produced some interesting results.