Thus, small changes
of global average air temperature are associated with very large changes in some regions, particularly over land, at mid - to high latitudes, in mountain regions.
Not exact matches
But climate models predict reductions in dissolved oxygen in all oceans as
average global air and sea
temperatures rise, and this may be the main driver
of what is happening there, she says.
These shifts also have a profound effect on the
average global surface
air temperature of Earth.
Global warming, the phenomenon
of increasing
average air temperatures near the surface
of Earth over...
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
For a long time now climatologists have been tracking the
global average air temperature as a measure
of planetary climate variability and trends, even though this metric reflects just a tiny fraction
of Earth's net energy or heat content.
This was one
of the motivations for our study out this week in Nature Climate Change (England et al., 2014) With the
global -
average surface
air temperature (SAT) more - or-less steady since 2001, scientists have been seeking to explain the climate mechanics
of the slowdown in warming seen in the observations during 2001 - 2013.
As far as this historic period is concerned, the reconstruction
of past
temperatures based on deep boreholes in deep permafrost is one
of the best past
temperature proxies we have (for the
global regions with permafrost — polar regions and mountainous regions)-- as a signal
of average temperatures it's even more accurate than historic direct measurements
of the
air temperature, since the earth's upper crust acts as a near perfect conservator
of past
temperatures — given that no water circulation takes place, which is precisely the case in permafrost where by definition the water is frozen.
The net effect
of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface
air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account for much
of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001.
Now I've seen mentions that (strong) El Nino years will make the
global annual
average higher — e.g. 1998 was so warm partly because
of El Nino, and that this is due to the fact that sub-surface warmer water is brought up and allowed to affect the
air temperature.
Global average air temperature near the surface is dominated by the ocean (because it covers two thirds
of the planet), particularly at low latitudes.
Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior appraisals
of global average surface
air temperature.
I think it's a mistake to refer to changes in
global average surface
air temperatures as if they were definitive measures
of the change to the climate system.
Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level.
And yet, when you do trends
of global data you are
averaging air temperatures over intervals where the heat content is not continuous, and thus the trend that is the
average temperature does not show the actual trend
of the heat content.
Blue line is a five year running
average of HadCRUT
global surface
air temperature (Huang 2000).
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations
of sea ice area and
global NCEP
air temperature, sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend
of projecting below -
average summer sea ice conditions for the Arctic.
Dana, I think you are pushing in the right direction with this; heat content is a much more direct measure
of the underlying changes to the climate system than
average air temperatures and climate science communicators should make heat content their first response to the suggestion that
global warming is something that waxes and (allegedly, recently) wanes.
Here's an illustration: the Figure below shows what happens when the
average ± 4 Wm - 2 long - wave cloud forcing error
of CMIP5 climate models [1], is propagated through a couple
of Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4)
global air temperature projections.
Partail statement: «The
average global air temperature changes as concentrations
of CO2 in the atmosphere vary.»
As LST closely tracks
air temperatures over the instrumental period, we can also infer that
air temperatures in this region
of East Africa varied in concert with the
global average and thus were controlled primarily by the major forcings influencing
temperatures over this timescale, both natural (solar radiation, volcanism) and anthropogenic (greenhouse - gas emissions; refs 19, 20).
Global average surface air temperature is one of the most well - recognized metrics of contemporary climate change — hence the term «global warming&r
Global average surface
air temperature is one
of the most well - recognized metrics
of contemporary climate change — hence the term «
global warming&r
global warming».
The annual anomaly
of the
global average surface
temperature in 2014 (i.e. the
average of the near - surface
air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010
average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century
average), and was the warmest since 1891.
Bob Carter
of James Cook University in Australia wrote an article in 2006 saying that there had been no
global warming since 1998 according to the most widely used measure of average global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
global warming since 1998 according to the most widely used measure
of average global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
global air temperatures... [and] David Whitehouse
of the
Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was
Global Warming Policy Foundation in London made the same point... Mark Lynas said in the New Statesman that Mr. Whitehouse was «wrong... We know now that it was Mr. Lynas who was wrong.
What you should say is that
GLOBAL AVERAGE index of temperatures is increasing, or average low troposphere temperature is increasing (a 5 km layer of air, as per satellite interpretation of «brightness temperatures&r
AVERAGE index
of temperatures is increasing, or
average low troposphere temperature is increasing (a 5 km layer of air, as per satellite interpretation of «brightness temperatures&r
average low troposphere
temperature is increasing (a 5 km layer
of air, as per satellite interpretation
of «brightness
temperatures»).
The
global temperature records use a blend
of air and sea - surface
temperatures, while
global average temperatures from climate models typically use just
air temperatures.
A number is pulled out
of the
air with no justification (that stuff
averages out over 15 years), and the supporting evidence
of this is that we can measure
global temperature averages.
Running 60 - month
averages of global air temperature at a height
of two metres (left - hand axis) and estimated change from the beginning
of the industrial era (right - hand axis) according to different datasets: ERA - Interim (Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF); GISTEMP (NASA); HadCRUT4 (Met Office Hadley Centre), NOAAGlobalTemp (NOAA); and JRA - 55 (JMA).
Maps show projected change in
average surface
air temperature in the later part
of this century (2071 - 2099) relative to the later part
of the last century (1970 - 1999) under a scenario that assumes substantial reductions in heat trapping gases (B1) and a higher emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in
global emissions (A2).
The resulting enhanced loss
of summer and winter sea ice resulted in feedbacks, associated with Arctic Amplification, which has raised Arctic
air temperatures at a rate twice the
global average.
Internal variability can only account for ~ 0.3 °C change in
average global surface
air temperature at most over periods
of several decades, and scientific studies have consistently shown that it can not account for more than a small fraction
of the
global warming over the past century.
And,
of course, we do not need to
global climate models to run impact models with an annual
average increase in the mean surface
air temperature of +1 C and +2 C prescribed for the Netherlands.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface
air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to March 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface
air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to April 2018.
Running twelve - month
averages of global - mean and European - mean surface
air temperature anomalies relative to 1981 - 2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2018.
The Fourth Assessment Report finds that «Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising mean sea level.
One study estimates that there are likely to be places on Earth where unprotected humans without cooling mechanisms, such as
air conditioning, would die in less than six hours if
global average surface
temperature rises by about 12.6 ° F (7 ° C).16 With warming
of 19.8 - 21.6 ° F (11 - 12 ° C), this same study projects that regions where approximately half
of the world's people now live could become intolerable.7
The fact this is seemingly not fully recognized — or here integrated — by Curry goes to the same reason Curry does not recognize why the so called «pause» is a fiction, why the «slowing»
of the «rate»
of increase in
average ambient
global land and ocean surface
air temperatures over a shorter term period from the larger spike beyond the longer term mean
of the 90s is also meaningless in terms
of the basic issue, and why the
average ambient increase in
global air temperatures over such a short term is by far the least important empirical indicia
of the issue.
Current
global average surface
air temperature is warmer than that for all but a small fraction
of the past 11,300 years.
Hemispheric or
global averages of mean surface
air temperature are, therefore, largely determined by the
temperature of the continents (Fig. 4 and Fig. 7).
People don't wake up and say «oh gee, that
global average air temperature that's gone up by point zero one
of degree from last year has really affected my life».
The 2007 IPCC report warned: «Warming
of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures.»
While he represents that this fault lies in inconsistency
of the predictions
of the models with a
global average surface
air temperature time serties, the fault truely lies in our inability to statistically test the projections
of these models.
The evidence comes from direct measurements
of rising surface
air temperatures and subsurface ocean
temperatures and, indirectly, from increases in
average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes in many physical and biological systems.
(1) there is established scientific concern over warming
of the climate system based upon evidence from observations
of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level;
It is not «conduction» but exchange
of radiation; if you keep your hands parallel at a distance
of some cm the right hand does not (radiatively) «warm» the left hand or vice versa albeit at 33 °C skin
temperature they exchange some hundreds
of W / m ² (about 500 W / m ²) The solar radiation reaching the surface (for 71 %
of the surface, the oceans) is lost by evaporation (or evapotranspiration
of the vegetation), plus some convection (20 W / ²) and some radiation reaching the cosmos directly through the window 8µm to 12 µm (about 20 W / m ² «
global»
average); only the radiative heat flow surface to
air (absorbed by the
air) is negligible (plus or minus); the non radiative (latent heat, sensible heat) are transferred for surface to
air and compensate for a part
of the heat lost to the cosmos by the upper layer
of the water vapour displayed on figure 6 - C.
The researchers discovered a
temperature increase
of just 1 degree Celsius in near - surface
air temperatures in the tropics leads to an
average annual growth rate
of atmospheric carbon dioxide equivalent to one - third
of the annual
global emissions from combustion
of fossil fuels and deforestation combined.
Unfortunately using
global average surface
air temperatures as a measure
of total warming ignores the fact that most
of the heat (more than 93 %) goes into our oceans, which continue to warm without any sign
of a pause, as you can see below.
https://judithcurry.com/2016/02/10/are-land-sea-
temperature-averages-meaningful/ Several
of the major datasets that claim to represent «
global average surface
temperature» are directly or effectively
averaging land
air temperatures with sea surface
temperatures.
3
Global Warming Defined
Global Warming Is The Increase In The
Average Temperature Of The Earth's Near - surface
Air And Oceans Since The Mid-20th Century And Its Projected Continuation.