The flagging
of global average surface temperatures is a mystery to some climatologist because they are wedded to AGW.
This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise
of global average surface temperatures.
When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration
of global average surface temperatures.
The increase in these winds has caused eastern tropical Pacific cooling, amplified the Californian drought, accelerated sea level rise three times faster than the global average in the Western Pacific and has slowed the rise
of global average surface temperatures since 2001.
Further, by global warming I refer explicitly to the historical record
of global average surface temperatures.
The efficacy of a forcing is the climate sensitivity (in terms
of global average surface temperature change per unit global average RF) of that forcing relative to a standard type of forcing.
So, I'm beginning to think that the response
of global average surface temperature to solar variations for the 11 - yr solar cycle is * not * amplified (by feedbacks).
The stability and natural fluctuations
of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.
This comment from the abstract is correct: The stability and natural fluctuations
of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.
The annual anomaly
of the global average surface temperature in 2014 (i.e. the average of the near - surface air temperature over land and the SST) was +0.27 °C above the 1981 - 2010 average (+0.63 °C above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891.
The interesting thing from a scientific perspective is that specifying the surface temperature in this region seems to anchor the coupled atmosphere / ocean circulations in a way that not only gives a better simulation
of global average surface temperature, but also provides better simulations of the variability of key regional circulation features.
They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode, changes in climate statistics on the regional scale, and even in terms
of the global average surface temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.
Absolute estimates
of global average surface temperature are difficult to compile for several reasons.
«Why I Spend So Much Time and Effort on Climate Skepticism New Research Report on the Validity
of Global Average Surface Temperature Data and EPA's GHG Endangerment Finding»
«Why there is a Warm Bias in the Existing Analyses
of the Global Average Surface Temperature» http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2006/01/23/why-there-is-a-warm-bias-in-the-existing-analyses-of-the-global-average-surface-temperature/
If there is deep - water formation in the final steady state as in the present day, the ocean will eventually warm up fairly uniformly by the amount
of the global average surface temperature change (Stouffer and Manabe, 2003), which would result in about 0.5 m of thermal expansion per degree celsius of warming, calculated from observed climatology; the EMICs in Figure 10.34 indicate 0.2 to 0.6 m °C — 1 for their final steady state (year 3000) relative to 2000.
richardscourtney says: June 27, 2014 at 2:47 pm «And my additional question is What is the definition
of global average surface temperature (GASTA).»
If the different methods are not analysing different definitions then why do values
of global average surface temperature (GASTA) from decades ago alter when the method is changed from month to month: which is the right determination any of the ones before a change or any of those after it?
Each team that produces values
of global average surface temperature (GASTA) uses a different definition; e.g. the weightings they apply to land and ocean differ and they compute gridding differently.
And my additional question is What is the definition
of global average surface temperature (GASTA).
richardscourtney says: June 27, 2014 at 6:36 am «Each team that produces values
of global average surface temperature (GASTA) uses a different definition; e.g. the weightings they apply to land and ocean differ and they compute gridding differently.»
There are major unresolved issues concerning the ability
of a global average surface temperature trend to accurately measure climate system heat changes.
If heat flow into the deeper ocean (under 300m) is driven independently
of Global Average Surface temperature or the «greenhouse» effect, then we have no reason to suppose that the latter produces any «global warming» at all.
Not exact matches
Most scientists and climatologists agree that weird weather is at least in part the result
of global warming — a steady increase in the
average temperature of the
surface of the Earth thought to be caused by increased concentrations
of greenhouse gasses produced by human activity.
The results show that even though there has been a slowdown in the warming
of the
global average temperatures on the
surface of Earth, the warming has continued strongly throughout the troposphere except for a very thin layer at around 14 - 15 km above the
surface of Earth where it has warmed slightly less.
A striking characteristic
of the most recent 21st Century negative phase
of the IPO is that on this occasion
global average surface temperatures continued to rise, just at a slower rate.
What's more, there are several long - term records
of global annual
average surface temperatures.
Land and Ocean Combined: The combined
average temperature over
global land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century
average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
NOAA said the combined
global land and ocean
average surface temperature for the January - October period was 0.68 °C (1.22 °F) above the 20th century
average of 14.1 °C (57.4 °F).
Ocean Only: The August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.17 °F (0.65 °C) above the 20th century
average of 61.4 °F (16.4 °C), the highest on record for August.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident over most
of the
global land
surface, except for parts
of western Europe, northern Siberia, parts
of eastern Asia and much
of central Australia stretching north.
In the latter half
of the decade, La Niña conditions persisted in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, keeping
global surface temperatures about 0.1 degree C colder than
average — a small effect compared with long - term
global warming but a substantial one over a decade.
Ocean Only: The June - August
global sea
surface temperature was 1.13 °F (0.63 °C), above the 20th century
average of 61.5 °F (16.4 °C), the highest for June - August on record.
Global surface temperatures in 2016
averaged 14.8 degrees Celsius (58.64 °F), or 1.3 C (2.3 F) higher than estimated before the Industrial Revolution ushered in wide use
of fossil fuels, the EU body said.
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs
of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of the
average global surface temperature — there is a lot
of noise, or natural variation, in the syste
of noise, or natural variation, in the system.
Although the rising
average global surface temperature is an indicator
of the degree
of disruption that we have imposed on the
global climate system, what's actually happening involves changes in circulation patterns, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in extremes.
These shifts also have a profound effect on the
average global surface air
temperature of Earth.
Global average surface temperatures in 2015 are likely to reach what the WMO called the «symbolic and significant milestone»
of 1.0 C above the pre-industrial 1880 - 1899 era, and around 0.73 C above the 1961 - 1990
average.
Warmer than
average temperatures were evident over most
of the
global land
surfaces, except for parts
of the United States and western Europe, northern Siberia, parts
of eastern Asia and much
of central Australia stretching north.
The
average global sea
surface temperature tied with 2010 as the second highest for January — August in the 135 - year period
of record, behind 1998, while the
average land
surface temperature was the fifth highest.
With records dating back to 1880, the
global temperature across the world's land and ocean
surfaces for August 2014 was 0.75 °C (1.35 °F) higher than the 20th century
average of 15.6 °C (60.1 °F).
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half
of 2013, the January — June
global temperature across land and ocean
surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period, at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century
average.
Global warming, the phenomenon
of increasing
average air
temperatures near the
surface of Earth over...
Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean
surfaces, from three different estimates, each
of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates
of increase in recent decades.
Figure 2: The data (green) are the
average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly
global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods Jan 1970 to Oct 1977, Apr 1977 to Dec 1986, Sep 1987 to Nov 1996, Jun 1997 to Dec 2002, and Nov 2002 to Nov 2012 (blue), and also showing the far more reliable linear trend for the full time period (red).
This is defined as the change in
average global surface temperature for a given amount
of carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in
global average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much
of which has been absorbed by the oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake
of atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in
surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
The
global average surface temperature last year was 0.94 degree Celsius (1.69 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the 20th century
average of 13.9 ° C (57 ° F).
With the contribution
of such record warmth at year's end and with 10 months
of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the
average global temperature across land and ocean
surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century
average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth
of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
(1) The warm sea
surface temperatures are not just some short - term anomaly but are part
of a long - term observed warming trend, in which ocean
temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than
global average temperatures.