That brings me to a paper I've been meaning to get to for a while: «A critical review
of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility?»
And yet it too often feels like attempts to generate a hopeful narrative
of global decarbonization remain badly underpowered, even after Paris.
Not exact matches
Achieving the 2025 target will require a further emission reduction
of 9 - 11 % beyond our 2020 target compared to the 2005 baseline and a substantial acceleration
of the 2005 - 2020 annual pace
of reduction, to 2.3 - 2.8 percent per year, or an approximate doubling;» Substantial
global emission reductions are needed to keep the
global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and the 2025 target is consistent with a path to deep
decarbonization.
They also show that a full
decarbonization of the
global power sector by scaling up these technologies would induce only modest indirect greenhouse gas emissions — and hence not impede the transformation towards a climate - friendly power system.
The 2012
Global Energy Assessment, for example, elucidated multiple pathways that could simultaneously achieve
decarbonization at the same time as expanding energy access to the millions
of people currently living without modern energy and electricity, and improving public health by reducing air pollution.
This dialogue concluded that... limiting
global warming to below 2 °C necessitates a radical transition through deep
decarbonization starting now and going forward, not merely a fine tuning
of current trends.»
Regardless, the analogy
of voluntary personal weight loss to
global decarbonization is limited.
The actions they announced are part
of the longer range effort to achieve the deep
decarbonization of the
global economy over time.
But again, if
decarbonization of the
global economy is the ultimate goal, then I think it's clear we still need answers to the cost and scalability
of nuclear and renewables both large and small.
He helpfully reminds readers that
decarbonization of a vast and growing
global energy system is a marathon, not a sprint, and one for which the course and rules are still being worked out:
On the one hand, CDP, the UN
Global Compact, the World Resources Institute and WWF, have just launched a new campaign, in the context of the Science Based Targets initiative, that is seeking to recruit 100 companies to commit to the adoption of emission reduction targets consistent with the level of decarbonization required to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial tempera
Global Compact, the World Resources Institute and WWF, have just launched a new campaign, in the context
of the Science Based Targets initiative, that is seeking to recruit 100 companies to commit to the adoption
of emission reduction targets consistent with the level
of decarbonization required to keep
global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial tempera
global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
In the past couple
of weeks, climate change has captured the headlines: Leaders
of the G7 agreed to a
decarbonization of the
global... Read more
Granted, there has been some progress in the
global decarbonization effort, but to date this has occurred on the fringes and in the absence
of any enforceable targets to limit the total amount
of atmospheric CO2.
In 2014 alone, reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, the UN Sustainable Solutions Network and the
Global Commission on the Economy and Climate argued for a doubling or trebling
of nuclear energy — requiring as many as 1,000 new reactors or more in view
of scheduled retirements — to stabilize carbon emissions e.g. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III — Mitigation
of Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/, Presentation, slides 32 - 33; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2014, p. 396; UN Sustainable Solutions Network, «Pathways to Deep
Decarbonization» (July 2014), at page 33;
Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, «Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy Report» (September 2014), Figure 5 at page 26.
There can not be any accurate calculations regarding what the temperature impact
of UK
decarbonization might be, simply because we do not know what role CO2 plays, if any, in
global change.
We acknowledge that
global warming can produce a wide range
of possible outcomes — ranging from modest to catastrophic — but we believe that any reasonable risk management exercise points toward immediate
decarbonization as the optimal response.
It's the crux
of the political impasse that now stymies the negotiations, and indeed it's the largest obstacle to the
global solidarity we need to face down the fossil - fuel cartel and launch an emergency
global decarbonization.
A high - level panel chaired by Farhana Yamin
of Track 0 and featuring Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary
of the UNFCCC, and Rachel Kyte, World Bank Group Vice President & Special Envoy for Climate Change, will underline why the Paris talks must signal
decarbonization of the
global economy and built environment.
Targets adopted by companies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are considered «science - based» if they are in line with the level
of decarbonization required to keep
global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial temperatures, as described in the Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Where has the testing
of cap and trade, carbon taxes and
decarbonization as a means
of reducing
global average temperature been done?
If isolationist policies, including pulling out
of the Paris Agreement and weakening the Western alliance, lead to a
global trade war and thence to an economic depression, the shutdown
of significant chunks
of the economy could lead to a larger reduction in greenhouse gas emissions than any careful, deliberate
decarbonization policy.
To maintain a
global temperature below 2ºC
of pre-industrial levels we need to have zero emissions by 2050 — not net - zero; not
decarbonization; but true zero emissions.
Here's what is required (leaving aside Theresa May's electorally hamstrung inability to deliver much
of it): The entire cabinet and every business leader the government's black book can muster, on stage for the launch
of the new strategy; an explicit declaration that this, full
decarbonization of the economy, is the post-Brexit economic strategy; clear and attractive retail policies, such as a diesel scrappage scheme, tax breaks for green investment, new apprenticeships, a green home building program; an open invitation to all opposition party leaders to share a platform to support the plan with a declaration that while they may not agree on every component they fully endorse the over-arching goal; a willingness to shame those party leaders who play party politics and refuse to turn up; a fortnight - long program where each day sees a new cabinet member explain how the plan will transform parts
of the economy; a Royal Commission on the flaws
of GDP as an economic measure and the viability
of alternative quality
of life metrics; and, yes, a brave assertion that carbon intensive industries will have to transform or be scaled back, backed by a
decarbonization adaptation fund to help affected communities respond to this
global trend.
RE100 is a perfect platform for committed organisations to share their practices, and have a stronger voice in the overall
decarbonization of our
global economy.»
The 2015 Paris climate agreement specifies a clear goal to limit
global warming by 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels (UNFCCC 2015), and the recent publication
of a roadmap for rapid
decarbonization offers guidance on actions required at the national level to effectively limit carbon emissions in order to meet the goal (Rockström et al. 2017).
That leaves us with just one key strategy to drive emissions towards zero: we must accelerate the
decarbonization of the
global economy to significantly reduce the C / GDP term
of our equation.
Do you believe that the risk
of catastrophic damage from anthropogenic caused
global warming justifies the
decarbonization of the economy.
While sectoral economic transitions are largely outside the domain and impact
of energy policy, and deindustrialization is hardly a
global strategy for rapid
decarbonization, it appears that history presents at least one replicable strategy to accelerate the pace
of decarbonization: the directed
decarbonization of global energy supplies via the state - led development and deployment
of scalable zero - carbon energy technologies.
Instead, as discussed below, there would need to be a Presidential directive to pursue a path (s) with the potential to contribute to
decarbonization of global energy systems as rapidly as practical.
A key to reducing carbon emissions will be the near complete
decarbonization of the
global electricity system, which is today's largest source
of greenhouse gasses, and remains largely dependent on fossil fuels.
One
of India's largest industrial conglomerates, Mahindra Group, is leading by example with the announcement that an additional 11
of its companies are now committed to set science - based targets to reduce their emissions, in line with the level
of decarbonization required to keep
global temperature increase below 2 °C.
We are in a good position to transform the
global energy system but success will depend on urgent action, as delays will raise the costs
of decarbonization.
The United States and China announced new goals for reducing their
global warming pollution in the coming decades, with the U.S. ramping up its rate
of decarbonization in five to 10 years and China promising that its carbon emissions will peak in the next 15 years.
to reduce their emissions, in line with the level
of decarbonization required to keep
global temperature increase below 2 °C.
«The Deep
Decarbonization Pathways Project report is an effort to demonstrate how countries can contribute to achieving the globally agreed target
of limiting
global temperature rise to below 2 degrees,» said Secretary - General Ban.
Of further interest is the opinion that the U.S.'s recent decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord might not be as detrimental to
global climate change mitigation as originally thought because
decarbonization, including the switch from coal to natural gas, in the U.S. is now «taking place from the ground up.»
Nuclear's travails represent a major setback in the
global quest to curb carbon emissions; if solar's rise similarly stalls, then the world won't get a third try at
decarbonization before the potentially catastrophic impacts
of climate change set in.
This is the exact question begged by the findings
of the Deep
Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaboration among climate and energy experts from 16 countries representing around 75 %
of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Justifying the
decarbonization of the
global (really just the western) energy economy.
The event convened government, businesses, researchers and academia to discuss a pathway towards
decarbonization, as all actors play their part to build
global partnerships that facilitate structural transformation and technological innovation, seek continuous improvement
of climate policy and establish strong economic mechanisms, such as carbon pricing, that will build a low - carbon economy.
If we had tried to accelerate
decarbonization by deploying 1980s solar technology, it would have cost a staggering $ 53.5 trillion to scale up solar to provide just 11 percent
of total
global electricity supply, according to WRI's numbers.
According to the Science Based Targets Initiative, a GHG reduction target is science based when it is «in line with the level
of decarbonization required to keep
global temperature increase below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.»
In his own writings he says: ``... the long - term,
global rate
of decarbonization is about 0.3 percent per year — gradual, to be sure, but enough to cut the ratio by 40 percent since 1860.»
... Thus, to stabilize
global emissions at some (higher) level in the future, the
decarbonization rate would have to at least double to offset the current rate
of economic growth.»
The main implication I draw is that some form
of aerosol geoengineering is really really likely; first, just to make up for the
global cooling effect lost as polluted cities clean their air, and later to buy time for
decarbonization (and, I suspect, air capture).
The document in question is what's known as a negotiating text, and in this case it contains a whole grab bag
of aspirational long - term goals... It is a very early version
of what, over the course
of the next 12 months, will morph into a new
global deal to be signed in Paris... But if language such as «full
decarbonization by 2050» were to become a reality, it basically defines an end point for the fossil fuel energy industry as we know it...
If international climate policies succeed, against all odds, in sealing an ambitious deal on the confinement
of global warming to < 2 °C, then the focus
of TE research should actually shift to the social transformations arena: a massive acceleration
of innovation processes for the
decarbonization of our contemporary industrial metabolism will be the only way to deliver.